PARAGUAY kicked off the Olympics with an embarrassing 5-0 defeat but they bounced back with a win in their second group game and another three points against Mali would book their place in the quarter-finals.
Although the South Americans were humbled by Japan in that Group D opener, they did play most of the game with 10 men after a red card with the score at just 1-0.
They have plenty of attacking talent in their squad and that was underlined last time out against Israel as they roared to a 4-2 win thanks to two late strikes.
That lifted Paraguay from bottom to second in the section and they now only need to see of Mali to join the Japanese in the knockout stages.
But the African side have been a tough nut to crack so far and would have ground out a second successive draw had Cheickna Doumbia not missed a stoppage-time penalty against Japan to scupper one of my bets.
All is not lost for Mali though and if they can win their final match against Paraguay it should be enough to take them through, provided Israel don't beat group winners Japan by a few goals.
How the bookies view it: Not much between these sides
This is a tough game to call and it's reflected in the odds with Paraguay the slightest of favourites at 7/5 with Betfred. Mali are 7/4 and the draw pays 21/10, a result that could end up knocking both sides out.
Head to head: First footing for both nations
Like most of the games in this group, history will be made as these sides face off for the first time.
Players to watch: Marcelo's the man for Paraguay
Marcelo Fernandez stood up to be counted in Paraguay's hour of need when he netted twice in that win over Israel. The forward's tail will be up for this one and he looks worth a punt once the scorer markets are priced up.
Doumbia will be off the penalties for Mali after that costly miss against Japan. So I'm switching to winger Thiemoko Diarra, who plays for Reims in France, as he could cause Paraguay a few problems.
Probable teams
With so much at stake for both teams the managers should field their strongest sides for this one. I'd expect both line-ups to be similar to their last outing in Group D.
Paraguay: Fernandez, Nunez, De Jesus, Rivas, Balbuena, D Gomez, M Fernandez, Gonzalez, M Gomez, Enciso, Perez.
Mali: Diarra, Doucoure, Diallo, Tounkara, Diomande, B Traore, Giddou, Diakite, Doumbia, T Diarra, B Diarra.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both of Mali's matches so far have been tight and this should be another close game. That makes the half-time draw appealing at 11/10.
A draw suits neither side if Israel win in their game so we should see goals and over 2.5 strikes pays evens. Betting on both teams to score also appeals although the odds aren't great at 8/11.
Paraguay have looked good going forward when they've kept a full complement of players on the pitch. Backing them to score in both halves pays 11/4 here.
This Olympics match between Paraguay and Mali will be played on Jul 30, 2024 and kick off at 20:00. Check below for our tipsters best Paraguay vs Mali prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
