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I'm not quite sure what went wrong with Equity Law, he broke well but came under pressure very quickly and ended up finishing towards the rear.
I've two selections for Tuesday, and both come from the meeting at Beverley.
Warrendale Wagyu 2/1 – Beverley 1.47
The one I like in this race is the J&S Quinn-trained Warrendale Wagyu, who looks more than capable of defying a penalty on the evidence of his recent success.
He was raced three times last year, showing very little in each of those three outings. All of those runs were on the AW and he wasn't fancied in the market on any of those runs ( sent off at 9/1, 66/1, and 80/1 ). Those prices were pretty much bang on the money as he was beaten by 24L and 14L on each of the starts he was sent off at double-priced figures.
My selection was gelded at the start of the year and given a break before making his handicap debut at Doncaster with a low mark of 60. He again, wasn't fancied that much in the market on that occasion and went off at 12/1 before the off. He easily won that contest, traveling well throughout, and went on to win by a length in the end. Connections have chosen to send him out quickly before the handicapper has his say and given he remains unexposed and has plenty of improvement possible, he looks the most solid play in this race.
Where's Jeff 16/1 EW – Beverley 4.17
I was planning on keeping it simple and only have the single selection for Tuesday, however, I simply can't let Where's Jeff go at his current price of 16/1. He's now entering the veteran stage of his career and is no shy horse to a race track having run over 50 times during his long career.
He started of this season strongly when winning at this very track at the end of April. I caught a quick replay of the race and I thought he traveled strongly throughout, showing a good attitude in the final furlong to knuckle down towards the line and get up to win by half a length.
He was then sent up in trip at Hamilton last month, he didn't win that day, however, he finished a creditable fourth behind My Little Queens, a horse who I actually tipped up on the day to win that race after being a well-handicapped sort going into the contest. My selection was then sent out again over the same distance on his most recent outing but ran a shocker to finish last of 14. His most recent performance is a slight concern but I'm willing to look past it.
His record at Beverley was the main thing that caught my eye and is ultimately my main reason on giving him an each-way chance in this race. He clearly enjoys the track, winning three times and finishing second four times from nine runs. 16/1 looks a fair price if you fancy having a few quid eachway.
Few useful stats hopefully….
Guivinec 5.00 Newton Abbot
Anthony Honeyball horses are in decent form. 6 of the last 30 have won. 19 of the last 30 have finished in the top 3. Yard have a 27% strike rate at the track over the last 5 seasons with 6 from 27. Up to a 29% strike rate with their handicap chasers with 2 from 7.
Over 3 m 2 furlong ( tomorrow’s distance) in 2023 the yard had an incredible 43% strike with 7 from 16. Over 3 m 3 f they were at 100% with 1 from 1. So far in 2024 they are 3 from 12 over 3m 2f. This is a stat worth jotting down for those that weren’t aware or at least a nice reminder for those who were.
Lightly raced with only the 6 runs. 2 over fences. Both runs were at Fontwell over 2 m 4 f. Jumped really well for one so inexperienced. Also handled the sharp track well which is a big plus with Newton Abbot being similar.
Was beyond obvious a step up in trip was needed, staying on in both runs. Markedly up in trip to this 3 m 2 but what takes a bit of the doubt away is this is a nice flat track.
Has a battling attitude, seems to be one that won’t just fold.
Big factor for eying this bet up was a wind op last month so every chance this could bring on a ton of improvement.
Reckon the step up in trip and his sound jumping is the key to this bet and the wind op is a bonus. Shown he can handle a sharp track also and definitely signs of a game horse there that will battle for you. Those stats for the yard over this trip are very interesting as well.
Haven’t backed this yet I had this as about a 4/1 chance so kind of hoping it drifts a bit and I’ll be on. Very tempted to just play if safe with him to be placed at around 11/10. There are a few in this race switching stables, 2 have had a wind op and a few coming off a break. Not the most exciting of bets but it should be a winning one. All the best everyone
Forgot to include… 8 of the last 23 winners for the yard were over run over at least 3 mile.
Secret Strength 7.15 New ew @ 50s top 4
Won this last year off 4lb higher but has done nothing this season. Might do better back here
GL
Morning All .
NEWTON ABBOT
15.30. .American Gerry. .7/2. .Bet365 . .N/B
16.30. .Sea The Clouds. .11/2. .NAP. . E/W makes sense at the price.
17.00. .Ballinoulart. .7/1 . Betfred. . E/W .bait better price with others but BF is BOG.
GL ALL
atacama du mazet 11.35 France ew well done all winners yesterday
giacomo 12.10 france
shinji 2.00 nap
cimbidium 2.17 nb
What was warrendale wagyu a non runner did nt see it in the placings on sporting life
No need for sarcasm dazzman ?
Don’t worry Dazz, I’m fully aware that the form of recent has been below par.
Down around 15 points or so for the month, it happens. Can only try and claw back some of the loses towards the end of month and try and have a better month in July.
Good luck for what ever else you are on today.
3:30 Newton Abbott imperial joe 10/1
14.17 Beverley what a result for bookies ah will have been plenty spent on other 3 horses and will have knocked out all placepots
Stormingin 4-42 Brighton
6-4 betting without three dons and foinix bet365 NAP…?
Came 2nd in this race last year
ravensbourn 5.45 ew well done all winners today sopose I’ll go and watch england kick a bag of air aboute and get paid a fortune for it