Royal Ascot Day 5 Racing Tips – River Tiber can land Jersey Stakes for O’Brien and Moore

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We started off the Royal Ascot festival not too badly, but the previous two days have been tough.

The final day of the Royal Ascot festival has arrived, it's scary how quickly it comes and goes. Hopefully, we can find a winner and land some profit to finish off a hard week of racing.

Ascot 2.30 – Chesham Stakes – Motawahij 12/1 EW

* Due to Chilly Breeze being announced as a non-runner for this race, I've had to change my selection last minute. *

For the final day of the Royal Ascot week, we kick it off with the Chesham Stakes which is the 2yo race run over 7f and is a Listed contest.

It could come back to bite me but I'm not prepared to give a Charlie Appleby's horse a chance in this. His runners so far this week have been atrocious, with none of them being competitive at the very least. The stable form is a big concern, and when a big yard is having problems like this, I think it's best to steer clear until they get a winner or two, and not just any winner, a winner on the big day.

Duke Of Monroth

There is three newcomers in this race, and given that the 2022 winner was a debutante, they probably have to be taken with more seriousness than normal. Out of the three, the AMO racing runner Duke Of Monroth looks to have the best chance. He was the most expensive of the three and has the best pedigree. The owners do well with their 2yo's and always have to be respected on debut. They had a newcomer run earlier in the week and he ran to an RPR of 90, finishing middle of the pack, so if money arrives for him, it'll be interesting.

Motawahij

The way Karl Burke has had his juveniles firing this season, his runner, Motawahij has to be worth a second look. He was second on debut when not strongly fancied in the market, but shaped with a nice amount of promise. Considering Karl has a decent chunk of ammunition but has only sent one runner for this race suggests they fancy their chances. He was a 200k+ purchase at the Breeze Ups, so connections clearly feel there is a lot of ability.

Pentle Bay

Pentle Bay was bought for 400k on Monday, after winning in a workmanlike style earlier this month. He needed every yard of the 6f trip at Leicester, so the 7f should help him out today, but just because big money has been spent on him, doesn't always mean they are going to win. I get similar vibes to the Grand National when owners spend huge amounts of money on horses who have no chance of winning the race, just to have a runner in the race.

Bedtime Story

As always in races like this, Aidan O'Brien has a leading fancy and it is Bedtime Story. My fingers were burnt when backing a short-priced 2yo from this yard a couple of days ago, so I'm not totally in love with backing another one.

This horse beat an odds-on stablemate on debut, and Ryan Moore wasn't on board him that day, so he clearly doesn't show all the right signs at home and his performance on the track was a big surprise. He clearly has a lot of ability, but with the way the 2yo races have unfolded, I'll take a chance on a bigger odds horse.

Ascot 3.05 – Hardwicke Stakes – Missed The Cut 11/1 EW

For the second race of the day, we have the Hardwicke stakes which is a Group 2 over 1m 4f. This race has seen horses like Pyledriver, Broome and Wonderful Tonight win before.

Desert Hero

Desert Hero will be fancied to run well at the Royal Meeting for The King, but his last performance leaves a sour taste in my mouth as he was terrible, potentially too bad to be true, but he just didn't fire at Newbury and I'd say you're only as good as your recent run. So, I'll be leaving him alone, even considering he won at this meeting last year.

Middle Earth showed a return to form when winning the Newbury race that Desert Hero was favourite for. He was a very good horse last year but he was very poor in the St Leger when finishing down the field. He showed a great level of tenaciousness to get up on the line and if he repeats that he is a contender.

Continous

It's not a surprise to see Continous as the favourite for this race. He was last year's St Leger winner and is the best horse in the race based on the level of form we've seen from everyone in this race. With him being a St Leger winner it shows that he is a strong stayer, so the trip might be on the short side for him, but if they go a true gallop, he'll be powering down the outside.

Missed The Cut

In my opinion, the interesting runner in this race is Missed The Cut. This lad has a strange career path, as he started off with George Boughey, which saw him win a Royal Ascot handicap in 2022 when being arguably the most well-handicapped horse in the country at the time, winning his race by 4L.

He had a few more runs for George but was then moved to America and is now trained by John W Sadler. In his first season in America, they kept him to the dirt, as he was a Listed winner on the AW in the UK, but he didn't set the world alight.

However, since moving back to turf he has seen big improvements in his form. He is a dual Group 3 winner this year on turf with RPRs of 117 and 118 in those wins. Last time out he was sandwiched into second place, either side of a Charlie Appleby horse. The winner has since won a Group 1, so the form looks rock-solid.

Interestingly, they are coming over for this race as he has the course form, will love the fast ground, and the jockey booking of James Doyle is a positive one.

Ascot 3.45 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes – Mitbaahy 6/1

The one I like in this race is Mitbaahy for trainer Charlie Hills. He looks a standout contender in this race and at 6/1, he looks the clear value play against those ahead of him in the market. Throughout his career, he has consistently shown potential, and his recent victory at the Curragh was particularly impressive. In that race, he managed to get up towards the line to deny Regional, who went on to finish as the runner-up in the Kings Stand.

Jockey Jamie Spencer will take the ride on my selection tomorrow. Spencer isn't everyone's cup of tea but I think his style of running suits my selection and he appears to get on well with the horse.

Mitbaahy was originally trained by Roger Varian before switching hands to Charlie Hills in April of this year. He was a good servant under Roger Varian but he was campaigned mainly over 5f. Although winning races over 5f in the past, he was a horse who was screaming out for further, and since joining Charlie Hills, he's been given just that.

My selection gets his favoured ground conditions tomorrow which is a bonus and although he's a horse who needs things to fall in his favour, he may get it tomorrow under a Jamie Spencer special!

Ascot 4.25 – Jersey Stakes Group 3 – River Tiber 6/4 and Kikkuli 20/1 EW

My last two selections of the Royal Ascot festival come in the shape of River Tiber and Kikkuli.

The O'Brien and Moore combo has been pretty solid over the past 4 days. O'Brien started off the season quite slow but his runners have quickly come to the surface and let's be honest, it was only a matter of time.

River Tiber

River Tiber is a short price at 6/4 and I tried my best to look elsewhere but sometimes you have to post short and in this instance, I can't see past the Aiden O'Brien runner. River Tiber emerged victorious in the Coventry last year and has had limited appearances in races since then.

His return was seen in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh, a race which was won by Rosallion, the same horse that triumphed in the St James's Palace Stakes on Tuesday. River Tiber only went down by 1.5 lengths on that occasion, he didn't find any extra when needed but it was a good effort all the same. He drops to 7f from the mile in this race, while also going from group 1 company to group 3.

I decided last minute to have two plays in this race, it's the final race I'm covering before it's back to reality, so why not?

Kikkuli

Most firms are offering 4 places and at 20/1 I thought Kikkuli was of interest. Kikkuli is a recent winning and losing selection for me on the MFT Racing thread. He has only had the three runs to date, and to say he's hit his ceiling, would be a silly statement to make.

Trained by Harry Charlton, Kikkuli is a half-brother to Frankel and was impressive on debut, even though he did not win. He finished second, running green and showing signs of inexperience. Regardless, when the penny dropped, he showed clear signs of ability and did well to finish as close as he did in the end.

Kikkuli then reappeared at the same track during the Craven meeting, he again showed signs of greenness but took a step forward from his debut run to beat Charlie Appleby's Creative Story on the line.

He was unable to back up that victory but still ran with credit despite running green. He was beaten home on that occasion by Ed Walker's Almaqam, who finished 6/8 in the Group 1 St James's Palace Stakes. Almaqam was only beaten by just over 5L in that contest so you could easily make an argument that the form of that second isn't actually all that bad. I'll have a small wager at 20s each way for the interest, especially with most firms offering 4 places.

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