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Everything I've touched over this week has run horrendously. Jim Crowley thought he was on Frankel holding his mount well off the pace, giving him no chance of winning, the horse didn't pick up very well, but at least give the horse a chance. Up The Straight jumped horrifically from the get-go and his chances were over before they even started.
Newmarket 2:05 – Zoulu Chief EVS (2pt)
He's a short price for a big field sales race, but that doesn't mean he's not value. On all known form Zoulu Chief should win this race, the others have a fair bit to find.
I tipped him up at York when landing a 51k prize nursery handicap. The form of that race looks rock-solid with the runner-up winning a Group 3 since and the third went on to win a Class 2 the time after, producing an RPR of 102. I think others in behind, in the York race, will frank the form further.
We've seen on many occasions over the years how being up with the pace at Newmarket is a big advantage and that's why I think this horse is short as he is. He was up with the pace at York and you could've called him the winner halfway through the race. Today's track is very different the stiff climb could catch him out, but the level of opposition doesn't look to be as strong as the York race and he looks a solid candidate. It's often best to not try and overthink races. At a price, I thought the only unraced horse of the race, Elderflower was of interest for a trainer who does tend to fire out a useful juvenile at Newmarket.
Curragh 1:45 – Kitty Rose 7/4 (2pt)
I believe that if Kitty Rose was trained by Aidan O'Brien she would more than half the price she currently is, but she isn't and is a bet in this as a result of being trained by Miss Natalia Lupini.
Similar to the above race, I think you can get bogged down and try and get the favourite beaten, but after all that more times than not the favourite wins as they are the best horse in the race and I firmly believe Kitty Rose is.
I think her runs to date have been impressive and she just looks like a horse who is more than capable of progressing further and the extra half-furlong isn't a worry in the slightest. She has a nice turn of foot and she travels powerfully through her races, she has to prove she is just as effective on softer ground today, but I think she has the class to combat that, even if she might not find it to be her ideal condition. I was tempted to go with Sea The Boss, who was convincingly beaten by Kitty Rose as she won on soft ground on debut, but she was outclassed by Kitty Rose.
Curragh 3:30 – Bells On Her Toes 4/1 (2pt)
I think that the drop back to 6f could be advantageous to Bells On Her Toes and in this relatively weak race, she could land her first Class 1 victory.
Though she isn't a lightly raced filly and has taken the tough route through her career to get to this stage she still has her quirks. She wears headgear for a reason as she is a bit of a live-wire and she seems to idle a lot so the drop-down to 6f should play to her strengths as it should allow her to settle a lot better on the back of a stronger pace. I have no doubts in my mind that she has the pace to cope with the drop in trip as she travels extremely powerfully through her 7f races, and she doesn't exactly do her best work at the finish over that trip, she has gotten to the front before at this level over 7f but is outstayed by stronger stayers.
She seems to handle the soft ground very well and the stiff nature of the Curragh will play to her strengths as she does possess the stamina for another furlong, so I can see her being smuggled into the race by Andrew Slattery and then staying on strongly. I'll be praying for a clear run-through.
I would apologise for the length of this almost pointless post, but believe me, it could’ve been 5 times longer.
16:30 Redcar HORTZADOR win only, YOUNG FIRE 18/1 and CROWN PRINCESS 12/1 each way 6 places.
This is a Class 2 in name only and the fact LA TRINIDAD was a clear market leader, half the price of the 2nd fav, shows how wrong the market makers have this one. I have actually just looked at the market again since last night and despite last years winner being taken out, surprise surprise LT is on the slide 3/1 out to 5s.
I did have success in a big field hcap last Saturday, but I am feeling less confident here. If MAYSONG 11/1 had his regular apprentice on, it would be a mortgage job, sadly Hollie is on, 6 places are paid so most of the field can place, but unfortunately I’ll have to avoid. I have liked Alice Haynes for a good few years, her main man won at Newcastle last night and has gone to France today.
Kingscote is not here for HORTZADOR 7/1 but O’Meara got him down to a crazy mark, 19lbs lower than last year, he is only up 3lbs for a recent win making him extremely dangerous, Richard won a similar race to this last week on Astro King, I avoided given he was top weight and drifted a little, at around 7/1 I have placed a thousand worse bets so I am going to have a saver on him at win only just in case. Combo are 2-8 together last 12 months.
I would not be shocked to see an Easterby runner pop up given he has 5, but he is a bit of a conman so hard to gauge. Give It Some Teddy 9/1 6th in this off this rating last year. Strongbowe 22/1 runs well here and 3 above last win. Poet’s Dawn 5/1 CD winner LTO now 12 higher, but only 1lb above win this time last year and I like big Jimmy Sullivan.
SHALADAR has been beaten by a few of these already but isn’t out of it, only 7/1 I believe the trainer will have a winner on the card (without studying) he has MIDNITE STORM 3/1 in the opener and VOLTERRA in the 15:20 with one entry at both Ascot and Newmarket too.
Given the complexity of this race, I am purely going with two outsiders just so I can follow them for an interest, yes I have said this before and they win, but don’t read into this, always bet responsibly, especially in such races as this. The two I’ve landed on are YOUNG FIRE 18/1 and CROWN PRINCESS 12/1 .
As an AW follower, you pick up on trainers in the lowest quality races and it is always nice to see them break out with decent years, or win decent races. It would be an upset but this is one of his best years in training from memory and happy to give him a spin.
Crown Princess is 1lb above a CD win in August, beating Shaladar off the same weight differential. He runs in Class 5s, isn’t tremendously rated either and bounced after his win, losing to a good few of these. Cam Hardie is the main man, but Graham Lee is often on, Lee has actually been on a few of these, I doubt he had the choice, but the fact he is on TITIAN, does make for me, that horse the joker in the pack at 11/1.
YOUNG FIRE’s huge price probably is indicative of his chances, the bookies aren’t unaware of the trainers capabilities anymore. I would like to see him about 5lbs lower in the ratings, and despite a Gd/Frm win to his name, probably had a better chance on worse ground, he is not jumping off the page by any means but at the stakes, we can go with him.
Hayley Turner likes to have her cake, eat it and then eat others, not sure what relevance that has, but she teamed up with David Simcock for a winner the last time she rode, their first winner since June, a 12% win rate this year isn’t that shambolic. They have two out today.
Harry Brown is only a 3yo and has won over 5f, the stiff Ascot track I suppose will suit the fact he and his father are better over 6f, around 7/1 it’s an EW price but with poor recent form and hundreds of runners today, why bother.
15:35 Ascot – HICKORY 7/1 e/w & Bless Him 11 e/w 6 places
I will preface this by saying big bad O’MEARA won this last year and has a strong hand in it this year, a smart man would take time to look at his, but I am neither.
As for BLESS HIM, he is now a 9yo in an ultra competitive cavalry charge with 17 runners open to 3yos and up. The horse hasn’t been at this best recently and you have to suspect there will be a good few in this better than him. This is at least his domain, with good success last year, winning at HQ off 1 higher before going down by a short head off 1 lower over C&D to Fresh, who is in the race today, we are 3lbs better off. Fresh went off 11/4f in this last year and was dead last, perhaps the bookies paid Fanshawe’s stable fees for the year. I have been a fan of Jack Mitchell since he was a 5lbs claimer, but he is 0-3 for the trainer this year.
At the 11/1 price and 6 places paid, before checking rivals a small EW punt can be taken given the trainers recent form. Now I’m putting this up, it’s only fair to have a very quick run through of the rivals…
We get an 8lb pull with Biggles who is rated to his best. Ropey Guest was 2l ahead of us in that but we get 7lbs back. Horse of the year, QUINAULT won over C&D lto but is up another 5lbs, he beat Popmaster by a neck but is 3lbs better off despite beating him. Hickory was 3rd in that race 2l behind the winner carrying 1lb more, but is now 6 lower at the bottom of the weights and that despite O’Meara having a strong hand in this, at a glance is actually good enough for me given BENNY DE LA SAYETTE having a decent record for Fanshawe.
1645 Ascot – BADRI 11/1 + 3 others ew 5 places
I think Dazzman put up a neck 2nd from this combo recently, she’s had a couple of winners since so let’s take a look. Strangely enough she has TITIAN who I mentioned in the Redcar race, her only other runner is BADRI, a horse I know from Ruth Carr days, Ryan won on it for her and puts it on 97 today, one above his last win.
Off this mark in July over today’s C&D BADRI was 1l behind a well weighted winner, with two subsequent decent horses in behind Vintage Clarets/Raasel. Bouncing nto before being purchased by new connections when finishing 2nd on the AW. A no show last time leaves questions to answer but I am on.
I was lucky enough to be on TEES SPIRIT when it finish 2nd, Rizzle got on after when it bombed, it gets an honourable mention. WOOLHAMPTON won over C&D off 83 in a C4, this is MUCH tougher but we are now 6lbs lower at around 14s. SPRING BLOOM caught my eye because the 7lbs apprentice messed me up last night winning a race at 25s the form said he couldn’t. LTO over C&D he didn’t do much but will be going off 78, having finished 2nd in a C4 in September off 87. He has drifted massively overnight 12s out to 22s and is now a viable player in the ew extra market.
ACKLAM EXPRESS is a very lazy pick, I used to champion small timer Nigel Tinkler and it seems Clive Cox has purchased him. This horse has been slightly nibbled over night, IT HASN’T WON FOR 3 YEARS, it is BADLY OUT OF SORTS but has gone from 108 to 88 in the space of 12 months so gets a throwaway stake.
CALLAN
I wasn’t aware of Neil Callan until he came back to these shores 2-3 seasons ago, but he has quickly asserted himself as one of the top men in the business – I believe he was over in Hong Kong or Australia, he rides winners for a good few but it seems Kevin Ryan is his main employer.
He rides Escobar in the 15:35, a horse we all know who is looking to go back to back in the race. He is on Emaraaty Ana in the opener. It’s been two years since he won, but that was in a Group 1 and has been tried at a similar level since. This is a LISTED race, which is a massive drop, reflected in the fact he’s a 9/4 favourite. I got on Triple Time in the first race of this years Royal Ascot, a 40/1 winner from this jockey/trainer/owner (who I banged on about last week regarding their 2yos, they operate around 25% which is crazy).
I am not going to go through any other runners, which is foolish, but it is a throwaway 1pt bet blind. I have my bankroll at the start of each day and divide it by 50 to work out my stake, I’m stating this because I know there will be some out there with £100 to play with and want to put them off sticking £20 on it, regardless of whether it wins, bankroll management is the only way to win in this game, coupled with patience.
LARSON
Plenty of regular connections for Frederick Larson out today, but he has opted to go to Wolverhampton, with DR FOSTER 3/1 being his best chance @ 18:00 althought TOO MUCH TREVER is the overnight mover 3s into 7/4.
after a bad week for Rizzle, gotta chuck his in a treble or trixie. Zoulu has kept it’s price, Natalia Lupini had a nice winner to end the Dundalk card last night and the Slattery/Slattery combo are respected. i think/hope he has a big day. want to say i wrote so much but didn’t dig too deep, more info the better but as always, stick to the plan.
Roberto Hornby is nagging at me at HQ, and Michael Bell (AT LIBERTY 1410r), better stop there before I’ve mentioned every runner. last contribution unless i actually pick out some beauties …
MOVERS
13:30 hq – Whispering Words 9/4 > 7/2
14:40 hq – Vera Vertro 3/1 > 7/1
14:40 hq – SHAZAM 16/1 > 9/1 **SAFFIE OSBOURNE**
15:50 hq – Royal Majesty 16s > 8s (I will punt drifter HAND OF GOD 10/1)
17:00 hq – Ivory Madonna 18s > 9s
13:50 Asc – Emaraaty Ana 15/8 > 11/4
13:50 Asc – Designer 12s > 8s
15:00 Asc – Juan Les Pins 6s > 12s
16:10 Asc – NINE TENTHS 16s > 9s (OWNERS HAVE NYMPHADORA 1350 HQ interresssttinnngg)
16:45 Asc – Existent/Acklam Epress 14s > 9s
13:40 Red – Midnite Storm 5/2 > 4/1
13:40 Red – Mickley 9/2 > 5/2
15:20 Red – Zain Blue 2/1 > 11/8
16:30 Red – STRONGBOWE 22/1 > 17/2 **(MASSIVE MOVE)**
tour of duty 1.10 ew nb Camelot colt just can never pass them by
5:30 Wolverhampton- made in china 6/1
6:00 Wolverhampton- dr foster 3/1
7:30 Wolverhampton- bosh 7/1
8:00 Wolverhampton- caramay 5/2
No doubt another Saturday wipeout but you can at least try 😂
al aassy 2.25 nap well done all winners yesterday
Also done a fontwell double
2:50 – guy 5/6
4:00 – red Windsor 9/4
Hopefully a few of us get some winners on the board !
Escobar 3.35 ew
12:35 turfontein – guy Gibson 5/2
1410 Redcar BILLY ROBERTS 12/1 e/w 5 places (saver on AT LIBERTY win only)
Simon Whitaker had a 1st and 2nd last night at double figure prices. His only runner today is 10yo Billy Roberts in the 14:10 at Redcar. He is an absolute dreadful trainer, including last nights, only 3 winners in the last 365 days, but Mark Winn who is on Billy, rode of of them. The horse is around 12/1 in from 18s, I was only on his 2nd last night so don’t need to risk an old boy, but I think I will. He lost to Dogged lto but is 4lbs better off, he runs off 62 having been very close off as high as 69. His campaign last year was in the summer and tailed off at this time, but given the yard’s runners last night, we can live in hope.
I said I had a niggling feeling about Michael Bell at Redcar, so AT LIBERTY was a neck 2nd on this card last year. Menzies’ runners are avoidable at a glance. HIGHWAYGREY is looking dangerous off this mark and remains solid 4s last night, now 3s. Busby CD 3rd lto and same jockey can now claim 3lbs, done his winning on the AW though. LEITZEL combo did well here last year IIRC, horse shown his best last time out, opening mark of 85, now rated 70 and is a nice price around 9s, having drifted. I put CONTRAST up here LTO when 2nd, versatile ground wise and weighted to be there abouts, 5s out to 7s. A case can be made for AL HARGAH 8s into 11/2 an EW shot to nothing for Hollie the squirrel Doyle and Richard Hannon. Holie won on Khangai last, and isn’t on so that is a negative for his chances. JEWEL MAKER C&D winner off this mark 11s to 14s perhaps not his day. Shifter never gone beyond a mile whilst Ringed Fence is 2 below his last win on the AW for new stable and is 66s.
14.45 Redcar – Two Year Old Trophy (Listed)
What is going on here? Last night the 2/5f was a clear market leader. The 2nd fav has been pulled, and HE HAS DRIFTED. I am no expert but that is strange at the least. Flaccianello’s trainer has won this race 2 out of 6 times, so is an EW shot to nothing at 5s whilst one of the best 2yo trainers Archie Watson’s ACTION POINT is 8s into 11/2, a lightly race Listed winner who contested Group 2s, not dismissed lightly.
BALON DOR was 33/1 last night and is now 11s, now it doesn’t matter what they slash the prices to if the horse can’t win but it is significant enough to mention, especially with the fav sliding. A race I’ll only have a couple of squid on but the market is certainly interesting.
Kitty rose beaten by a 20/1 shot what a supprise ! 😂
no idea why people take, let alone put up 11/10 win only selections… with so many races there are probably 50 horses at better prices, with a better chance, to finish just in the top 3. 😂 😂 😂
EMARAARTY ANA did the business anyway :D
Fake markets 😂
2:05 Newmarket – woodhay wonder – 4/1
Go on pj smash the favourites head right in !!! 😂
just calculated ZOULU up about 14 in the ratings, could win by 5, but at evens, zero value and pure guesswork, so, gone with saffie/ferguson at 18s just for interest.
Wow he absolutely smashed it !!! I honestly was nt expecting that with the trouble before the off 33/1 in running at one point I thought it was game over 😂
hahahah very nice, didn’t chance winner myself but big up paddy mack. 18/1 place will do me, happy days.
bombed out in the 14:10 but winner not a shock despite price. whilst big NIGEL TINKLER has massive place again.
horses playing up before the off have been injected with go faster juice, see it all the time, something i specifically look out for 8) nice one.
I knew pj was due a winner for me 😂
That’s what I was thinking with your selection earlier getting all hot and bothered is it because they have been given something this is obviously the case and I expect Rizzels had the go slow juice injected 😂 ment as friendly banter ! I lose just as much as the next man
had percy willis at 25s yday gutted for my rep not to share it, then had oceanline go in at 28s lol, got 100 to 280 and played till it was all gone :D not in it for the money 8)
AL QAREEEEEMMM boooom, ONLY £5 on it but who cares, jim crowley, is a saturday bookies man, they love him.
Was nt al aasy an obvious mug bet ? Surely to god 😂
Zulu Chief unplaced at evens with 22 runners bookies having a laugh same last Saturday with Greek legend 2nd @ 5/2 with something like 32 runners John mcririck would be spinning in his grave scandalous ridiculous prices shouldn’t be allowed to get away with it !!!
what are you on about bertie??
we should be buzzing that those who set the market are so clueless, having so much work to do to make an accurate book, the more runners and races, the harder it is for them.
gina mangan lost her claim, the horse had only ever won of 83, and ran today off 97 in a deeper race…. only a mug would bet on it, and only a mug would see an even money shot in such a race and think to back it, this is horse racing, money is not given away easy.
i posted before the off it offered zero value, and was guess work, and if a layman like me can see it, we can all see it.
so yes, put the leg work in and reap the rewards, what kind of idiot allows the bookmakers to set a tasty looking price and then follow them in on it thinking they’re going to give you a winner that easily….
The big chap wins at 50/1 fairyhouse 😂😂 you deserve to lose if you back a 8/15 shot !
bookmakers and paid tipsters base their opinions on what has happened. pioneers such as ourselves, read in between the lines and base their view on what could happen using their accrued knowledge :D
although saying that, what a scandalous price MY MATE MOZZIE was, a flat horse ffs, hurdle winner in 2021 and NEVER RAN IN A CHASE???? 8/15 wtaf!
not even looking at the irish today, or UK jumps, can spread yourself to thin.
Saying that I have backed guy who is now even money but in my defence I have doubled it up to make it worth doing and if it loses it won’t be a shock this is horse racing prepare to lose more then you win or don’t bother 😂
Exactly you want to pick the ones with a load of duck eggs to there name 😂
massssive drift on the HQ winner there, but had niggles about ROBERTO HORNBY so a lil £2 for £25 is always handy.
as for guy, at least you have form to assess his chances, and ur using the NTD yard form to go with it, all fine, unfortunately for you, BANDEY/BANNISTER ARE ABSOLUTELY DYNAMITE.
VERY NAIVE of my to pick low numbers in the big charge, historically high numbers absolutely smash these races to pieces. no good to anyone now. put up 18/1 in the Highclere colours earlier so managed 2.50 ew on that at 25s.. not that i needed to share that, think we broke the site with so many posts. hopefully anything else i put up earlier sees us make a profit.
hard one to pick up but mentioned i’d be backing hand of god 10/1, not many may operate like me but it works, one horse covering all of the day and then some. all about keeping in the game because we break through eventually. sorry for amount of thread clog today, has been a tad much.
2 mins till off but backing painters palette with other smention in the 16:30, owners scraped place with rhoscolyn, horse CD winner, good form too, 5/1 e.w shot to nothing i am goin HUGE. dont mind saying it as not many gonnna see.
WHAT A GRAFT THIS HAS BEEN TODAY. but WHAT AN END TO THE DAY, yes sorry painters palette wasnt mentioned, but BADRI, KING OF GOD, BOOOM BOOM DOUBLE BOOOM. site is playing up, i think the masses have come to see me in action. CHAAAAAAAAAACHING.
Well done.
You only put up about 80 horses to get them 👏👏
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Stick up main bet and a treble plus 5 fold just now and possibly do a Yankee with better priced horses later. Valentina Day 10/3 looks good but Godolphin favourite could be bit special.
Santa Anita -R3….Laurent. 2/1. ***** Skybet boost
Add for Treble at near 10/1 Coral (***)
Santa Anita-R9…Muth EVS ****
Keeneland -R9…Locked EVS ****+
Add for 5 fold. Around 18/1 (*+)
Keeneland R5…Valentine Dream Top 3 5/6.
(As mentioned 10/3 various to WIN’ 🤔
R8…In Italian 4/5
Plenty short priced favourites out there at Keeneland,Belmont and Santa Anita with UK/Irish raiders but least it’ll be dry at Santa Anita with Turf races being exactly that come racing time. Kentucky should be the same.
GL rest of the day and well done winners today 👌
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Keeneland -R6…Kaufymaker 10/1 Ew
Coral paying 4 places
*Side bet…. 9-8-2 Combo tricast No:1 alternative as I can see an NR or 2 coming?
GL
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rogue Rosie 6.30 ew well done all winners today
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Gulfsteam -R7…Gepard 9/4 Skybet boost ****
So many to hunt on my ATR tracker thing😖
Get get this up too while Skybet go strange price compared to others 👍
Wow! Like reading War & Peace on here today.
Wolves 8.30 Bishop’s Glory looks over priced @ 25s top 3. Also gonna have a small ew extra on Reversion @ 110s top 5. I can’t resist a price like that in a field of 10
GL
DAMNIT PETE, i went to tesco too early, i wrote war and peace and you come on with a one liner and bag bet of the day, great shout padawan.
Didn’t expect it to finish top 3 but I’ll take it. Well done if you where on. Thanks Robyn and tonsils.
Terrible racing tomorrow. Keep your hard earned in your pocket. But I know you probably won’t
GL
Great shout Pete !
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Gulfsteam -R8…R Adios Jersey 9/4
Skybet ***
Good Stakes race here and should be favourite rather than No:2?