Racing tips: Siam Paragon looks the value play in the Prix De Ris-Organis

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I'm back from my jollies, and the batteries are definitely recharged for some horse racing. Thanks as always to Cairnzy for filling in for me in my absence. Also, congrats to DC on your full recovery, it was great to read that yesterday!

Chelmsford 3:55 – Queen Aminatu 10/3 (1pt)

I'm a big fan of Queen Aminatu and I've put her up as a selection for this thread on a few occasions, including last time out at Royal Ascot where she didn't run particularly great.

I still think she can win decent races on turf, but for some reason, it just hasn't worked out for her yet. Connections firmly believe she is better on the AW as she returns to the artificial surfaces after a poor run at Royal Ascot. Her form on the AW is strong as any horse in this race, and the third behind Sacred the time before last proves how good she is, as she rarely gets a straight forwards run, more than likely having to go wide every time she runs around a track with a bend, and that results in her giving up too much ground, which is what happened in the Sacred race, but she finished 3rd and Sacred went on to finish 2nd in the Jubilee Stakes Group 1 at Royal Ascot.

She is 5/8 on the AW with a further two-placed efforts and is still just a four-year-old, so there's probably a bit of improvement yet to come. This is one of the toughest races she's been in on the AW, but I think she has the class to deal with it. The yard is in good form, so I don't think you have to worry about her well-being and as long as she doesn't give away too much ground when entering the final bend, she should be bang there at the finish.

Deauville 2:50 – Hi Royal 4/1 (1pt PaddyPower)

The early money has come in for Chaldean, which isn't a surprise, but I left Royal Ascot feeling quite deflated about the run by him under Frankie Dettori. I thought Frankie gave him the best ride possible and the horse just didn't look as good as he had shown on his previous starts. Granted, the winner won the Coral-Eclipse yesterday, but I think at odds of around EVS you've got to take him on.

I've decided to take him on with an old foe of Chaldean's with Hi Royal, who likes to run from the front, which is normally a good tactic to have around the French courses, including Deauville. I think he is not an out-and-out miler, so the drop back to 7f is a positive one as entering the final 2f of the 2000 Guineas in Ireland and the UK he was arguably going the best out of any horse in the race. He looked very unbalanced at Newmarket, so the more conventional track at Deauville should play to his strengths, and the forecast rain which is expected to fall should enhance his chances as he seemed to enjoy the soft ground in the UK 2000 Guineas.

Deauville 4:00 – Siam Paragon 11/2 (1pt EW Bet365)

I thought that Siam Paragon was good value at 11/2 in this race, which has another UK-based favourite in the shape of Spycatcher.

It's a strange race and I don't think it's full of great quality, which gives Spycatcher a decent chance of winning, but I think his price is far too short based on the fact he has done the majority of his runs in handicap company. I thought that Siam Paragon would run well, and would be much shorter if he had a lower stall as he has tended to run from the front so his stall in 9 is a bit wide if he wants to dominate this race. I don't think Geral Mosse will try and do that, but he will keep him wide and get a prominent position and probably share the lead, instead of using up a lot of petrol and grabbing the rail, which is still perfectly fine in my eyes.

The best part of his running style is in the final furlong over 6f where he seems to have a reserve gas tank, it looks like the ones in behind are coming with a decent run but he just keeps plugging away and eventually pulls away from them, which is what he did the last two times.

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