TWO top-five finishes last week was not what I was hoping for. Thomas Aitken threw away the lead in the final round in Joburg when he stumbled to six bogeys but Dustin Johnston did us a favour in the AT&T.
This week we start with a look at the Northern Trust Open at the Riviera Country Club. For this par-71 course accuracy seems to be the key.
In last year’s competition just short of 52 per cent of the fairways were split and getting up and down was no easy matter either with only 56 per cent managing to save par.
So I’m going again with Dustin Johnston. I know he’s not the most accurate off the tee, in fact he’s around 100th in the stats, but the par fives are where I think he’ll score well.
In the stats he’s first in eagles, birdie averages, greens in regulations and par breakers. He had a couple of weeks off then came back last week and nearly did the business. What more can I say.
With four out of five top-10 finishes this season Webb Simpson looks like a man in form. In 20 rounds he has only shot higher than 70 three times.
He’s up there with Dustin Johnston in birdie averages but is first in scoring averages. His driving accuracy is better (67 per cent) and is fifth in greens in regulation. By any account that’s good going and well worth an each-way punt.
Graham DeLaet did okay for us two weeks ago and has been tied second in his last two outings. He has been in the top seven four times in his last five tournaments and in the 2014 stats he’s sixth in greens in regulation and second in scoring averages. Hopefully he can continue like that and get his first PGA Tour win.
Another youngster I like is Harris English. This year he’s had two top-10 finishes in four starts and been over 70 three times in 16 rounds – and they were all 71s. In the 2014 stats he’s fourth in birdie averages, fifth in scoring averages and his all-round ranking is sixth. Certainly looks like one to follow this year.
Can’t make my mind up whether to give Hunter Mahan another chance this week. He’s had two top-six finishes in three starts this year so he’s going along nicely. He has a habit of throwing in a bogey every now and again but don’t we all (some more than most) but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt and going each-way on him.
The Africa Open has never been won by any other nationality than South African and I can’t see that changing. Aitken has never won a European Tour event in South Africa but that has to change sometime and that time is now.
Although he had a disastrous last round at the Joburg Open I think he has the mentality to get over that and do the business this week.
Darren Fichardt won here last year and is a good each-way bet. He’s only had one top-10 finish this year but his scores haven’t been that bad.
20pt staking plan
Dustin Johnston 2.5pts ew (12-1, Betfred)
Webb Simpson 1pt ew (20-1, Betfred)
Graham DeLaet 1pt ew (22-1, Betfred)
Harris English 1pt ew (40-1, 888sport)
Hunter Mahan 1pt ew (22-1, Coral, Paddy Power)
Thomas Aitken 2.5pts ew (11-1, 888sport)
Darren Fichardt 1pt ew (25-1, bet365)
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hi golf time my tips for the PGA 1ST European tomorrow
also how do I get an icon for me like deandre etc
Bill Haas 28-1 £2.50 Ew
He won at Riviera in 2012 and was leading going into the final round last year before finishing T3. yet to miss a cut in seven starts during Basically, he loves these sorts of courses He hasn’t been particularly spectacular this season by any means, but a T6 at the Humana Challenge showed his form is nearly there, especially because he finished at -23 and he is definitely not known for that sort of scoring. I do feel Haas can manage his way round the course and as long as his putting is half as good as it was at the Humana, Key stats: 18th in GIR%; Ball striking: 22nd superb tee to green game and ball striking ability sets Haas up perfectly for Riviera. If he had stronger current form he’d be my man to beat, even in a field of such quality.
Bryce Molder 100-1 £1 EW
Went close to landing us some each-way money at Pebble Beach and although he fell just short, there is no reason to desert him. The 35-year-old was five-under for the weekend whilst playing the tricky Spyglass Hill course in the worst of the weather on Saturday and a player trending in the right direction.
Charl Schwartzel 40/1 £1EW
Key stats (2013): 3-putt avoidance 8th; putting from 15-25′ 9th; total driving 27th excels in distance control with long irons. Inflated price due to poor effort last week but shook off the rust and ready to go on course that suits.
KJ Choi 66/1 £1 ew
Averaging 23rd in approaches from 125-200yds and has re-found his touch again this season and is another who excels on tracks where ball striking is rewarded. Eye catching performance at the Farmers on US Open style layout.
Brian Davis (150/1 £1ew
he produced a solid display last week (T13), so he will be coming here with a bit of form.He was actually T1 with Mickelson in GIR for the week, so his irons are in top shape and he is 11th for tendency so this is somewhere where his consistent tee to green abilities could prove interesting.
John Senden 200/1 £1 ew
Another player to watch on tracks where tee to green game and pars on the card takes precedence over putting and birdie making. With a couple of top fives worldwide recently for Senden is worth a spectulative punt Ball striking 26th; Total driving: 21st
Others to watch delaet speith and dubisson all that I like
Paul, for a pic go to gravatar.com
My tips for SA are walters kakko santos..pga I think choi luiten will go well..good pickin last few weeks paul..allen in seniors dug me oot last week
pat perez .what yous think?
Pat Perez is due something soon. He let me down last week as did Aiken. This weeks daft double is Baldwin( going against the grain that the winner will come from SA) and Spieth. Young lad but is a lovely player. EW of course.
cheers Paul – on your picks as usual but different % stakes/ Making a steady profit…..
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Each-way Double: Emiliano Grillo at 25/1 (Africa Open) & Bill Haas at 28/1 (Northern Trust Open) at best odds of 753/1 with Sportingbet.
Top 20s SA harding botes curlewis..top 20s in pga ishikawa c.hoffman tringale..ew doubles to finish in first 5 are waldorf(seniors) phatlum (lpga)..both 18s
Africa Open
Emiliano Grillo
Alistair Forsyth
Northern Trust
Justin Rose
Cameron Triangle
David Horsey (45/1
This could be golfing heaven. With his iron play and he rarely misses a fairway off the tee and is solid on the greens too.
With him having three consecutive top 10’s in March 2013 all on tracks similar to this week’s. ranked 1st in driving accuracy over the final two days last week and was also 6th and 3rd in putts per round his 2nd round of 63 last week makes him a real contender
Morten Ørum Madsen (45/1
The East London GC certainly will be a course he can excel. he will be one of the longest off the tee in the field. The driveable par 4s will be somewhere Madsen will have eagle chances that is for sure. For a recent champion, this is a very solid bet.
Alastair Forsyth (110/1 Stan James)
Excellent value He actually held the lead on day 3 for a short period but gradually dropped off and had a disappointing fourth round. ranked 1st in putts per round over the first three days. And he even ranked 7th, despite being +4, on the final day. he recorded a 5th in 2012 and worth a ew shot
Roope Kakko (80/1 SkyBet)
he did enough last week to suggest he can go again. After his second round 64 unlucky not to grab a place. the final day he was 2nd putts per GIR and 1st putts per round.
Emiliano Grillo 25-1
Last season he ranked fourth on tour for GIRs, 26th for driving accuracy and 30th for driving distance. Unfortunately, but he puts like my son as he ranked 182nd in putts per GIR. and after a second place in the Dubai Desert Classic he looks sure to go close again he is only 21 and a player in the making
Darren Fichardt.
The 38-year-old has 18 wins to his name, 13 of them on the Sunshine Tour, including last year’s Africa Open. And should make a bold bid to hold his title
Fichardt has never played the Joburg Open particularly well and at 25-1 cracking value
Adilson Da Silva 66-1
Just a marginal improvement in his putting will see Da Silva shoot up the leaderboard; therefore I’m giving him a second chance in the Africa Open. In his last three visits to East London he has finished T26-T18-T12
Adrian Otaegui 150-1
And who is currently mentored by Jose Maria Olazabal. He recorded five top-five finishes at the end of last season’s Challenge Tour including three runner-up places
I quite fancy DeLaet & Mahan too, I’m adding a couple of each way selections at bigger odds, and backing them in the top 20 finish market.
Kevin Streelman 140/1 Bet365
Justin Hicks 250/1 Skybet
Top 2o finish
STREELMAN 4/1 SKYBET
HICKS 8/1 SKYBET
last week i picked 2 golfers on the thread, Hunter Mahan (finished 6th) and Jimmy Walker (won at 25/1) so going to try keep the streak up this week with 2 more golfers
Graeme De Laet- solid form has finished no worse than 7th on his last 4 starts and finished 2nd on his last 2 starts and at 20/1 looks a solid ew bet
I have never bet this way before but my 2nd tip is Jimmy Walker again at 16/1- its rare to win back to back events but the form that Jimmy Walker has been on this year is frightning plus he has finished 4th here twice in last 3 years so i going to ride his form whilst its here.
Tips Graham de Laet 20/1 e/w
Jimmy Walker 16/1 ew
Africa – Mulroy, Kingston, Hoey, Horsey and Lee
Northern Trust – Tringale, M.Hoffman, De Laet and Perez
Are there any good sites to check out historical results for players.
I always rely on the Racing Post for the last 5 weeks form and previous years in the tournament.