Racing tips: Wind Tor will blow away the short-priced favourite

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Both of yesterday's big-priced EW selections were poor. Money came in for both of them early in the day, but Captain Tommy drifted back out and jumped very poorly.

Okaidi was backed into around 15/2 from 20/1 and broke okay but the jockey decided to position the horse towards the back. He ran on quite well in the final parts of the race to get fifth, so it's strange they didn't want the horse more forward from stall 2.

Thirsk 3:45 – Lockdown Lass 5/1 (1pt)

The ground at Thirsk is soft, but come the time of racing it'll probably dry out and be running at good to soft, and that should be perfect conditions for Lockdown Lass, who has one win to her name on turf, but that came on her only start on good to soft ground!

This 5yo mare has run 23 times in her career but has only run once on good to soft ground and two times on soft ground, but it seems like she relishes these types of conditions. From those three starts, she has won the one on good to soft which I previously mentioned, as well as finishing as runner-up on her two runs on soft. Those three runs came off marks of 50, 51 and 46, the win coming from 50. Today, this mare runs off 46 and gets Mark Winn doing the steering, taking off a further 5lbs, so if she is fit and ready she is a live chance in this low-graded race.

Gary Hanmer is more known as a jumps trainer, and his record on the flat isn't encouraging, albeit he doesn't have many horses, his last win was with this horse back in 2021 (on the flat), but this horse has run many good races in defeat and has run well after a break. She finished 2nd after a 178-day absence to start her turf season off last year and she has been placed when having 50+ day breaks.

Fontwell 4:30 – Wind Tor 3/1 (1pt)

Even though I think William Philo is the one they all have to beat, I don't think he warrants being an 11/10 market favourite in this race. His form is okay, he gets the first-time blinkers and Sam Twiston-Davies is a noticeable jockey booking, considering he was on him the day he was a 33/1 winner. But, he has to be taken on at the prices, and I think Wind Tor is a very good horse to back against him with.

This horse has been out of form since running well last season, until last time out when she was clearly aimed at the Exeter race as she won it 12 months ago. She bounced right back to form to finish 3rd and looked like a big player when jumping the last couple of fences, but she was probably outstayed/outclassed by the winner. She is an 11yo, but she is on a good handicap mark and one she can exploit, especially with Miss Chloe Emsley back in the saddle taking off a further 7 lbs. I don't know too much about the jockey, but she has ridden Wind Tor to wins in the past, so clearly knows the horse.

With the rider's claim taken into consideration, she is now running off a mark of 74. She won off 86 and 94 last year (effectively 79 and 87 as today's jockey was on board that day), so is more than capable of winning. She ran well for a long way in that Exeter race, just fading in the final furlong, so she's going to be fit for today and I think this race is an easier assignment than the Exeter race.

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