EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Wigan vs Luton
Luton sits just outside the playoffs with a game in hand and will look to continue their promotion push when they visit Wigan who continue to struggle even after Kolo Toure joined the club as manager.
Toure has overseen six games and over that time Wigan have returned just two points with W0-D2-L4 conceding a total of 16 goals, an average of 2.67. They have been a little unfortunate to concede quite so many with an xGA of 1.1 over the same period. However, they only generated a xG 0.71 and only three sides have fewer xPTS than the Latics over this period. It’s been a tough start for Toure, and I don’t think it will get better come Saturday evening.
Over the course of the season Wigan have gone W2-D3-L9 with victories over Blackpool who sit 23rd and Blackburn in early October.
The Hatters despite the loss of manager Nathan Jones for a 2nd time have continued their good form under Rob Edwards. Edwards has overseen five games with three victories with defeats against in form Middlesbrough and West Brom. I don’t believe Wigan are comparable to either of these two sides.
Overall, this season Luton have only lost four away games and their underlying data shows them as a midtable side and due to this I am not prepared to back them to win the match but believe the best way to tackle this game is to side with Luton on the draw no bet.
We will get our stake back if the game ends in a draw and the only way we lose is if Wigan claim a surprise win.
- Luton draw no bet at 4/5 with Unibet.
Plymouth vs Cheltenham
Plymouth are looking to stay top of the table as they welcome Cheltenham. They gave had two tough away games with draws at both Bolton and Ipswich and three points on Saturday afternoon will continue their excellent home form. They are W12-D0-L1 at home this season scoring an average of 1.92 goals per home fixture.
Its an excellent record and despite losing key attacking player, Whittaker back to Swansea, they have strengthened well over the month and have added depth to the squad. Despite their lofty position their underlying metrics have them as a top 6 side with 1.55 xG and I have them 5th at home on xPTS and 6th on xG ratio.
Cheltenham W3-D3-L7 on the road and have scored just 8 away goals this term and should struggle at Plymouth due to the gulf in quality between the two sides. Cheltenham will claim that success this season is survival, and they will have plenty of games where they consider they are more likely to claim three points.
Results against the top 6 this season reads W1-D1-L4 with their only win over Bolton back in early October. I have them 21st on away xPTS and xG ratio. 0.66 xG conceding 1.3xG and 1.08 goals.
Plymouth have won 12 games at home this season but only five of these 12 have been by two or more goals. Only one of their victories has seen more than 4.5 goals and therefore I am happy to back a Plymouth win and under 5 goals which we can back with Bet365 at 4/5.
- Plymouth win and under 5 goals which we can back with Bet365 at 4/5
Sutton vs Crawley
Sutton entertain crisis club Crawley on Saturday and I want to get with the home side. The hosts have a home record of W8-D2-L3.
Since mid-October they have only lost four games, losing to Leyton Orient, Salford, Stockport and Bradford, who all currently sit top half with Stockport one of the form sides in the league. At home they have won their last four home games on the spin and I have them hosts 5th on xPTS and 6th on xG ratio
At home they have a xG of 1.19 and xGA of 0.82 scoring in 11 of 13 home games with 5 of their 8 wins have seen over 1.5 goals with BTTS landing in 7 of their 13 home games.
Crawley are in a bit of a mess with a change of manager and the fans unhappy with the owner. They have an away record of W0-D6-L6 with only 4 sides collecting fewer away points. On the road they are conceding an average of 1.82 goals and their defense won’t be help as keeper Balcombe has been recalled by parent club Brentford.
Crawley had high hopes for this season, but it’s gone terribly wrong with them sitting just above the relegation zone having kept just 1 away clean sheet this term. Against top half on the road its W0-D2-L4 conceding 2+ in 4 and I have them 22nd on away xPTS with no side conceding more SOT on their travels.
Given the difference in form I want to back Sutton to win the game but the odds are too skinny so as five of their eight wins have seen over 1.5 goals, I am going to add this to boost the odds to 1/1 with Bet365.
- Sutton to Win + Over 1.5 Goals 1/1
