Racing tips: A second successive win over hurdles looks on the horizon for Strike The Flint

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A big thanks to Cairnzy for stepping in yesterday when I was unable to put the selections up. Today, I've opted for a couple of short priced horses, but they have clear good chances, so their prices are to be expected.

Wincanton 1:45

This is a race where it should definitely be decided between the top three in the market. If any of the other two win, then it would a massive shock, hence why there is a big discrepancy in the odds. Out of those three, I believe ARCADE ATTRACTION is the one to be on.

The last couple of races he has been over fences, and hasn't ran badly. Today, he makes a return to hurdles, after a good run from a 118 day break at Bangor a couple of weeks ago, so he will be fit and ready for this. The winner of that recent chase race has gone on to win again, and winning easily by 6.5 lengths, which is a good sign for the form of that race. There is a chance that he probably needed that race last time, as he has no extra on the run-in, which is more than likely from the time away from the track, so all in all that was a good run.

Unlike the other two who will be the main dangers, Arcade Attraction is proven at this distance, as he has won over 2m 3.5f & 2m 5f this year. The others have a question mark when it comes to this new trip, Beholden has been tried over 2m 2f, but Island Nation has been kept to the minimum distance, and doesn't look particularly suited to this new trip. I'm hoping that 10lb claimer Niall Moore takes the initiative and runs from the front, like he has done on this horse in the past. He could take the sting out of the horses who might have a little more pace than this horse, and make it into more of a stamina test, which could find the others toiling in behind.

Wincanton 2:55

A horse who I'm totally surprised about their odds in this race is, FRIENDS DON'T ASK. This horse has beat a few of these already this season, and they re-oppose on slightly better weights, but I don't believe it's enough to reverse the form with this lad.

The key to this horse is fast ground, so this will more than likely be his last run of this year, and I'd guess that he'll be put away from a spring/summer campaign in 2022. Wincanton looks to avoid any rain, and that means that current ground of Good To Firm should remain, which is a big plus for this horse. He has been progressive this year, and I previously tipped him up for a big race handicap at Fakenham when I took on this job, and he ran a blinder to finish 3rd in the Norfolk National. Since then he has won twice and is now rated 13lbs higher.

The two wins in the last three runs have been impressive, and he's not been put up too much in the handicap to ruin his chances again. He was ahead of Young Wolf last time and he easily put Mr Mafia in his place at Newton Abbot in July. Like I mentioned at the start, he dealt with them both easily, and the weight differences suggest that they won't be able to reverse the form.

As for the others…

Flying Verse won well last time out, but has quite a quick turnaround and now gets a 5lb claimer taking over from Brian Hughes. He's clearly in good form, but he flopped when they tried running him after a 7 day turnaround a couple of months ago, so he might be best seen with a longer break. Also, I'm not totally convinced that the form is that great. The other two, Another Stowaway, isn't in great form and is a risky proposition if you are a backer. Marble Moon returned to a little bit of form last time, but isn't one to be trusted.

Wincanton 3:30

This race isn't very good at all, and it's hard to ignore the recent win of STRIKE THE FLINT, who won nicely last time out, and I'm hoping that he can follow up that run and win again.

Considering the manor in which he won last time out, it would be a surprise if connections didn't plan on using the same tactics. He made the running at Plumpton, and it appeared to work, as it produced him with his only hurdle win of his career, and he did it easily, which saw him jump very well. He has been hit with an 8lb rise in the weights, but that shouldn't be enough if he's in the same kind of form, in a race where there's not much talent in the race.

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