NFL Week 5; AFC top seed to be decided?

A CLEAN SWEEP for me on here last week with the Ravens covering, Zeke and Zack Moss both scoring and Cordarrelle Patterson bringing home the receptions bet with ease.

Let's go for another one this week!

I've done a separate preview for the London Game this week and plan on doing that next week too.

NFL Week 5

There's some cracking games on the slate tonight, Packers v Bengals on Sky should be great, but the late slate is brilliant, Cowboys v Giants, Cardinals v 49ers and finishing off with the Chiefs v Bills which could decide the AFC #1 seed despite it being a game so early in the season.

Best Spread

I am finding the spreads really difficult this week, I was expecting to like the Packers -3 against the Bengals but the more I dug into that one the more I can see both teams going point for point. There's a couple of big spreads, the Vikings and the Bucs being favoured by 10 each, and the Vikings is tempting despite that against the Lions.

But I fancy the Titans to bounce back against the Jaguars. They suffered and embarrassing defeat against the Jets last week where they had no wide receivers available with Julio Jones and AJ Brown both ruled out, it meant that backup running back Jeremy McNichols led them in rec. yards, that's never a good sign.

It's not much better tonight but AJ Brown will be playing and that should be enough to get them back to winning ways. It adds a target which they'll probably mainly use to set up the running game, great for Derrick Henry who tends to detroy teams in the AFC South. I'm expecting 150+ and a 2 TDs from him against a very poor Jaguars defense.

The Titans defense is poop, and that will give Trevor Lawrence time to find his man, but I think the Titans will be able to out-score the Jags here.

Titans -4.5 – 10/11 (Most)

Best Total

I missed out the total bet last week and it paid off with two winning TD scorers, but I'll give it a go this week as I said above, I think the Packers and Bengals can go toe-to-toe, Rodgers v Burrow, a glimpse into what the Bengals have got for the future.

The Bengals defense has actually been very good so far this year and they welcome back Chidobe Awuzie and Jessie Bates to strengthen the secondary,  but they've not played anyone like Rodgers yet and it's rare that he's kept in check all game, so I think they'll be able to put up points, and on the other side of the ball the Bengals will have Joe Mixon limited, so should, in theory have to pass more and that's where the Packers lack strength with Jaire Alexander ruled out.

I can see at least 24 apiece and hopefully the Bengals hitting 30 despite the fact they've not needed to so far. WHODEY!

Bengals v Packers o51 – 10/11 (Most)

Best TD scorer

A couple on my list as always, Damien Harris for the Patriots, Justin Jefferson for the Vikings, Kyle Pitts in the early game for the Falcons as they don't have anyone else there.

I'm plumping for Harris at 11/10 for the Patriots. He's the only real running back on that roster and they're big favourites against a Texans team who were shut out against the Bills last weekend. Obviously I don't expect them to put up zero, or for Mills to throw 4 interceptions two weeks in a row, but the Patriots defense is good and should be able to give the team some positive field position to start in.

Mac Jones has been the best of the rookie QBs this year although he's not been asked to be expansive, so they'll matriculate their way down the field and that bodes well for Redzone carries for your best running back. It worked last week with the Zack Moss bet, in the end, and I'll go back to that well here.

Damien Harris – 11/10 (Paddypower)

Best prop

I was tempted to go a little left-field here with a longest reception prop, either on AJ Green or Jamarr Chase, but I'll leave that for other blogs. Trey Sermon has a very low rushing line with Eli Mitchell back for the 49ers, but having a running QB in Trey Lance should help both of those guys to get some yardage tonight.

However it's another running back I'm looking at in Derrick Henry, and while I think he'll top his rushing yard line of 116.5 I can't be touching that, so I'll go for his receiving yards instead which is set at 16.5. It's the first year he's really been used deliberately in the passing game and he's had at least 19 yards in each of the 4 games they've had this season. He tends to have good numbers against the AFC South so I'm relying on that trend continuing here.

Derrick Henry o16.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (365)

TDTips

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