SHEFFIELD UTD are odds-on for their League One clash with Crawley Town this evening but have won just one home game in their last seven.
The Blades were the pre-season favourites for the League One title and while they're still in with a chance of achieving it the play-offs are looking more and more likely.
They are fifth in the table, eight points off top spot and six adrift of the second automatic promotion place. They do have games in hand though, which if they won, they'd go second.
Danny Wilson's side have only lost six times this term – the lowest amount in the entire division – but have drawn far too many, especially at home.
At Bramall Lane, United have drawn their last three 0-0 and the 3-0 win over Colchester in February is their only league victory in front of their own fans since Boxing Day. In fact, they have won just seven of 19 at home this season, a win percentage of 37 per cent.
Crawley Town have risen through the divisions in recent years and after finishing third in League Two last time were fancied in some quarters to earn another promotion to the Championship. Things haven't quite worked out after a bright start though and with just five games to go are in 13th place with 58 points.
In fairness to Richie Barker's men though, they haven't been losing too many recently. Similarly to their opponents, they have been drawing most of their matches which would do us just fine tonight. The Reds have been defeated only once in their last nine and once in their last half dozen away from Broadfield Stadium.
Sheffield United need to start winning games if they want to secure promotion back to the Championship but don't seem to have the creativity to put teams to the sword, especially at home. Crawley are a resilient outfit and have been underestimated by the Betfair market for this one. Therefore, with United trading around the 1.79 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Sheffield United v Crawley Town @ 1.79
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
What is lay betting?.
“I bet you won’t get a bullseye”; “I bet you won’t finish all that”; “They’ll never win if he plays.”
We all make statements to friends like this every day. What you’re actually doing is ‘laying a bet’: betting something won’t happen.
Betfair have made lay betting possible.
For example have you ever thought Roger Federer was way too short to win an event, but couldn’t decide who was going to win the tournament?
Problem solved – by laying Federer, you are effectively backing the field to beat him. Much easier to cheer the whole field!
Like anything too good to be true, there is a catch. Should your selection win, you’ll pay the backer his winnings, which could be a lot more than the stake. Just be careful how much you decide to lay.
Laying bets sometimes causes controversy because you are betting on someone/something losing – but it has always happened that way.
If you back one horse to win a race, then by default, you are betting AGAINST every other horse in the race – you can’t cheer them all to win!
Betfair simply make the process simpler, cutting out the bookmakers’ margins.
In many sports or markets, such as a tennis match or under/over 2.5 goals in football, betting on one side is exactly the same as laying the other option.
How do the odds work for laying?
Imagine two everyday scenarios – flipping a coin and rolling a dice.
You and your mate each put a fiver on the coin toss. One calls Heads, the other gets Tails, and whoever wins gets £10.
You backed Heads for £5 to win another £5. The odds you received were evens or 2.
Or looking at it another way:
You laid Tails. You let your mate have £5 on Tails to win another £5, at odds of 2.
Either way, if it lands Heads, you win a fiver, if it lands Tails, you lose a fiver.
In a two-horse race, backing one side means you are laying the other.
So what happens when the odds aren’t even, or there are more than two options?
Think of a standard dice (or die). Pick a number. Your mate will pay you every time it lands on six.
What odds should it be?
It can’t be evens or 2, because that’s not fair – you’ve got much more chance of losing than winning.
Chances of winning – one
Chances of losing – five
The true price of this bet is five to one, or in decimals, 6 (potential profit plus your stake).
So your mate agrees to pay you the true price if you roll a six. You put down £1, he risks £5.
If your price is 5/1, what price is he getting for his bet?
He has five chances of winning, and only one chance of losing. So the odds are 1/5 or in decimals, 1.2.
If you’ve noticed the similarity, well done. It’s simply ‘flip the fraction’ to work out the other side of the bet.
True odds (such as 5/1 v 1/5) represent an efficient market.
This occurs when all the money going into the market equals all the money being paid out in the market – there is no leakage or profits being taken.
Efficient betting markets rarely exist outside of betting exchanges – bookmakers need to reap a profit in order to run a business.
Betting should all come down to weighing up the risk versus the reward.
Laying at 2 will win you more if you are correct, but it is more likely to happen than laying at 6. But laying at 6 will cost you more should that result occur.
Backing at 2 is more likely to happen, but you won’t win as much compared to backing at 6. And if you have bet to win a certain amount, then backing at 2 will cost you more if the selection doesn’t win.
Placing a lay bet
Select the market as outlined in placing a bet.
Then click on the lay side, in the following example you are laying Phil Mickelson at odds of 9. The backer is staking £10.
Your liability of £80 is taken from your balance as this is your worst case scenario.
The payout will be £90 but that includes the stake from the backer. If this bet was matched, there would effectively be a pot of £90 for someone to collect – the backer’s £10 stake, and the layer’s £80 liability.
If Phil Mickelson wins the tournament you have to pay £80 to the winning customer. If any other player wins the tournament you win £10 less commission.
When laying a bet, you can only win the other person’s stake.
In the example outlined above you will notice that the market is not completely formed.
There aren’t many offers on the screen and there is a gap between the best prices to back and lay Phil Mickelson.
In this instance if you don’t want to lay the selection at 9 you could make an offer in between 6 and 9.
Find out more about asking for a price.
Your offer would then appear in the back column waiting for someone who may think your offer is of value and will back the selection.
Liability explained
Your liability is the amount you could lose in your worst-case scenario.
When backing it’s simply the stake which you place. When laying however it’s the amount it will cost you if your selection wins. Either way, it is how much you are risking.
Ensure you monitor how much you are liable for.
Be very watchful of where you put the decimal point. If you want to lay a bet at 4.2 make sure it is just that and not 42… otherwise it will be an expensive mistake should your selection win.
One thing’s certain though, Betfair will only let you risk as much as is in your account and at the best available odds.
If you lay multiple selections in a field your liabilities don’t accumulate, your bets offset each other providing the market only has one winner.
Milesey ( betfair )
Sheffield United
25 Long
04 Higginbotham
05 Maguire
06 Hill
15 Collins
07 Flynn
08 Doyle
11 McDonald
14 Kitson
16 Forte
23 Murphy
Substitutes
35 Coyne
02 Westlake
32 Kennedy
19 Robson
09 Porter
24 Ironside
26 McFadzean
Crawley Town
01 P Jones
03 Sadler
06 Essam
12 Walsh
13 Hunt
07 Clarke
08 Torres
15 Bulman
16 Adams
21 M Jones
14 Proctor
Substitutes
25 Maddison
02 Dumbuya
04 Connolly
29 Malins
19 O’Brien
20 Elford-Alliyu
28 Hayes
Milesey
2 NIL TO CRAWLEY TOWN ;) ;)
Milesey
Milesey, good call. How many games is that for Blades without a home goal? Port Vale drawing as well and if it stays like that you did well to stop me and few others from backing them.
was it 5 games back now ? 3-0 win against Colchester, sheff utd, swindon, Tranmere, none of these teams are in any sort of form, Walsall or MK DONS could still nick a playoff spot.
LAY OF THE DAY
Lay Sheffield United v Crawley Town @ 1.79 ** WIN **
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Milesey
Milesey, really collapsed, especially that run of home games without a goal.