AFTER all the excitement of the Leigh Griffiths phantom goal I'm not putting on any bets on until the officials pass eye tests.
The more I watch that Hibs belter being ruled out the more incredible it seems. Took me back to the time a Dundee United player smashed a ball into the net at Firhill a few years ago it hit the back stanchion and rebounded out.
A Thistle defender picked the ball up and threw it to the keeper who nonchalantly booted it upfield for the centre to be taken. All the time the ref waved played on, the goal never stood and United never got the penalty. But I think they won 4-0 and don't remember seeing the ref much after that.
What's the chances of a repeat incident tonight. It's a fairly quiet Monday ahead of some big European games and the two punters will be focusing on are Burnley v Hull and Zaragoza v Granada.
So let's start in the Championship and Hull head for Turf Moor bidding to climb in second place but needing to improve after conceding four on their last two away trips to Bolton and Crystal Palace.
Burnley are over-reliant on top scorer Charlie Austin and if thy can keep the 23-goal striker they should win. Austin has netted the only two goals Burnley have netted in five games and the home men have won just once in eight.
Steve Bruce's Hull were brilliant in beating Birmingham 5-2 at home but those losses at Bolton and Crystal Palace raise doubts about their defence.
However, up front Egyptian striker Gedo has scored five goals in five games since arriving on loan from Al Alhy and Peterborough loanee George Boyd banged in two on his debut against Brum and has since earned a Scotland call-up.
I loved the quote from Gordon Strachan when he said “Steve Bruce, Alex McLeish, Darren Ferguson and myself all think he's a player. Between us there's a boss in there somewhere”.
So for me it's a Hull win at an attractive 9-5 with Blue Square as long as Austin is subdued.
And take Scots star Boyd to score at 7-4 with Ladbrokes and William Hill, while he is 8-1 at Coral and BetVictor to net first with Gedo 6-1 at Coral, BetVictor and bet365. Austin is first-scorer favourite at 4-1 with Ladbrokes and others and the only man to back if you fancy Burnley not to lose.
The La Liga game features two struggler but Zaragoza are just one point clear of the drop zone after 10 matches without a win.
Granada are just one above their rivals having lost their last three by 2-1 – but are playing better than their results suggest.
I have no faith in Zaragoza while Granada could be risky at a best 14-5 at BetVictor. I can see Granada avoiding defeat so my shout is Granda or draw double chance at 15-8 with Paddy Power.
Noticed Milesey tipping Caen to beat Istres at home in French Ligue but that games's now been postponed.
I was on a double with Caen and Dinamo Bucharest who are at home to Concordia. Dinamo have won all four since the resumption of the season and are looking a decent side who are building for next season.
Concordia haven't won any of their four and sit 10th in the Romanian table. This should be comfortable for Dinamo who are a best 9-20 at unibet.
Recommendations
Hull
(9-5, Blue Square)
Boyd to score
(7-4, Ladbrokes, William Hill)
Granada draw no bet (7.30pm)
(15-8, Paddy Power)
Tonight's double
Dinamo Bucharest (5.30pm)
(9-20, unibet)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Treble – LechiaGdansk – MadridCastilla – Caen
Romanian -1 Double – Vaslui – DynamoBucharest
Single – Zaragoza
Both 2 Score
Burnley-Hull
Braunschweig-Kaisersluten
Mersin-Kasimpasa
Midtjylland-Nordsjaelland
MsAshdod-BneiYehuda
LAY OF THE DAY
————–
Real Zaragoza narrowly avoided relegation last season when they finished 16th and they’re sailing even closer to the wind this time around in 17th, just one point clear of the drop zone. Back to back wins for Mallorca have put pressure on them to end their nine match streak without victory.
The thing holding Manolo Jiménez’s side back at the moment is that they’re conceding too many goals – both home and away. At La Romareda, Zaragoza have kept just a single clean sheet this term and they’ve conceded two goals in three of their last four. They managed a point against Valencia last time, but they had to score twice to do so and that now means that six of their last 10 on home turf have gone over 2.5 goals.
Granada avoided relegation by an even more slender margin last season and like their opponents, they’re right back in the mix now. They are 16th, just one point ahead of Zaragoza so this is a real six pointer tonight. After installing Lucas Alcaraz as manager early in 2013, the Spaniard got off to a fine start with back to back victories over Real Madrid and Deportivo. However they’ve not been able to build on that though as they’ve lost their last three.
As far as the goals go, eight of their last 10 in La Liga have had three or more, with their last half dozen on the road all doing the same. Similarly to Zaragoza, they’ve been able to score themselves, but clean sheets have been at a premium.
A win for either of these two sides would provide a huge boost so I expect we’ll see them both throw a bit of caution to the wind. That means the goals could flow, so with the stats already in our favour, under 2.5 goals is far too short at 1.74 and that’s why I’m making it my lay of the day.
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Zaragoza v Granada @ 1.74
————————————————–
Milesey
http://www.betfair.com/sport
TODAYS FOUR FOLD
—————–
Burnley V HULL CITY (ENG) / HULL CITY WIN 17/10
Setubal V GUIMARAES (POR) / GUIMARAES WIN 9/5
AARAU V Bellinzona (SWI) / AARAU WIN 17/20
Uni Cluj V TURNU SEVERIN ( ROM )/ TURNU WIN 9/4
£10 STAKE / RETURNS £ 454.54
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
TODAYS HOME and AWAY DOUBLE
—————————
Caen (HOME) @ 1.65
Veendam (AWAY) @ 2.1
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
CAEN game tonight has been called off.
Milesey
Milesey, cheers. Will can that bet then. Any thoughts about a replacement. I’ve got to look at tomorrow’s Record column just now.
Veendam (AWAY) @ 2.1
Milesey
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/breaking-news/soccer-verdict-sparks-unrest-in-cairo/story-e6frg13l-1226594011973
madness of the highest order
Burnley v Hull
Monday 11th March
19:45 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 1
A rare televised Monday night game in the Championship sees promotion chasing Hull visiting Turf Moor, knowing that a victory will see them leap-frog Watford and Crystal Palace back into the second automatic promotion spot after those two clubs failed to win on Saturday.
Burnley
The home side are one of the few sides in the Championship with nothing more than pride left to play for this season, safely clear of the relegation scrap but with the play-off spots now out of sight. They are heavily reliant on Charlie Austin, who has scored 23 times this season, for an attacking threat. Having only scored more than once in one of their last eight games, they hadn’t scored for 348 minutes until Austin grabbed a priceless winner at Charlton last Saturday before following up with another in the midweek draw at home to Barnsley.
Hull
The Tigers have become a tricky side to read of late. Having been one of the division’s most solid and consistent outfits all season Steve Bruce’s charges have veered from the sublime to the awful over their last three games with a 5-2 home win over Birmingham sandwiched in between heavy defeats at Bolton and Crystal Palace. However, with Palace and Watford both failing to win at home on Saturday, they have a great opportunity to strike a blow in what now looks a three-way battle for automatic promotion alongside Cardiff. Egyptian striker Gedo has scored five goals in five games since arriving on loan from Al Alhy.
Match odds
Hull have actually won eight times away from home, only the top two Cardiff and Watford have better records on the road, and Burnley’s form at Turf Moor is nothing to shout about – seven wins, six draws and five defeats. At this stage of the season, when one team is desperate for the victory and their opponents have nothing to play for, you want to be backing the side who need the points, especially when over the course of the previous six months they have proved to be 17 points better. So Hull to win at 2.7 has to be our recommended bet.
First Goalscorer
Gedo (Mohammed Nagy) has given Hull extra cutting edge in attack and is the most likely player to open the scoring for the visitors.
Best Bet: Back Hull to win at 2.7
Back Gedo to be first goalscorer at best available price
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
TIP OF THE DAY
—————
Caen have won 7/8 Ligue 2 home games, while Istres have lost 7/8 on the road.
Back Caen @ 1.66 to beat Istres
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Tuesday 19:45
Camp Nou (Live on ITV1)
Barcelona 1.34 Milan 10.0 draw 6.2
Match Odds
Barcelona have been in similar losing positions in each of the last three seasons. They successfully turned the tie around only once – against Arsenal two years ago – suffering failures against Chelsea last season and Inter in 2010. Barring a last-minute Fernando Torres goal (seriously) they would have won all three home legs.
2-0 leads are hard to come by in the Champions League and not easily relinquished – even away from home. We’ve found four examples in the last decade of teams with a similar lead to Milan’s hitting the road for the second leg. On each occasion they made it through to the next round (W2-D2-L0). Among teams with any sort of two-goal lead (2-0, 3-1 or 4-2) 10/12 have won the tie.
Xavi knows the size of the job and is ready to put his creaking limbs on the line, but what if the tiki taka doesn’t work?
Stand-in boss Jordi Roura has looked short of back-up plans in recent weeks and it’s not clear what he might have come up with since Saturday’s game with Deportivo La Coruna reinforced the idea that the Catalans are a little too reliant on a single Argentinean.
Lionel Messi was hauled off the bench at the weekend as La Liga’s leaders struggled to break down its bottom side. He scored in the last minute but 2-0 was hardly the statement Roura wanted to make ahead of this game.
A nugget from Opta: Messi had one touch inside Milan’s box in the first leg and didn’t get a single shot on target.
Those are the sort of numbers Milan as a team might expect to post on Tuesday. And because they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight Champions League away games, it is hard to oppose a home win – even if the hosts’ qualification is doubtful.
Over/Under Goals
Max Allegri says his team needs an away goal, but the absence of Giampaolo Pazzini (ten goals in his last 12 Serie A appearances) and a club record of scoring only once in five away legs make that difficult.
This could be a game to buck the trend. Barca have not scored more than twice in any of their four games since the first leg, while Milan are unbeaten since Christmas and 6/6 away games since then have stayed Under 2.5 Goals.
Half Time/Full Time
If Milan maintain the defensive discipline and effort they showed in the first leg, they will take some breaking down.
Barcelona will likely find a way through at some point, but why shouldn’t that be later in the game – when the toll of work is more likely to induce an error among Milan’s defenders or when the pressure of an impending deadline could force the home side into all-out attack.
Barcelona/Barcelona will start an odds-on favourite in the double-result market. With their opponents prepared to ride the punches, rather than go toe-to-toe, this could go the distance and we prefer the much longer price on Barcelona drawing at half-time and only winning at full-time.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.1
Back Draw/Barcelona @ 5.5
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
BRAUNSCHWEIG GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Zaragoza v Granada @ 1.74
———————————–
TODAYS FOUR FOLD
Burnley V HULL CITY (ENG) / HULL CITY WIN 17/10
Setubal V GUIMARAES (POR) / GUIMARAES WIN 9/5
AARAU V Bellinzona (SWI) / AARAU WIN 17/20
Uni Cluj V TURNU SEVERIN ( ROM )/ TURNU WIN 9/4
£10 STAKE / RETURNS £ 454.54
————————————-
TODAYS HOME and AWAY DOUBLE
Caen (HOME) @ 1.65 *VOID*
Veendam (AWAY) @ 2.1
————————————-
Best Bet: Back Hull to win at 2.7
Back Gedo to be first goalscorer at best available price
————————————-
Milesey
DENMARK.
FC Copenhagen was as strong as expected yesterday and ahead at half time.
My pick today have to be FC Midtjylland at home against FC Nordsjaelland. They’ve lost only 2 out of 11 at home and scored at least 1 goal in 91% of their home games. FC Nordsjaelland won their first game after the break but have looked very weak in defence in training matches and have conceded too many goals.
They met earlier in the season where FC Midtjylland won 3-1 and I’m on the home side again.
FC Midtjylland – FC Nordsjaelland (6.00 UK)
FC Midtjylland +0 (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1,94
Stake: €31.00 (or 6.20% of my fixed €500.00 bankroll for this Danish only series)
The Dane.
its your league Dane you know more about it than me or anyone else for that matter I fancy the btts I would go as far as Nordjaelland win but there away forms not great expanding on the Midtjylland home form they may have only lost 2 out of 11 at home but theve only won 4 and drew the other 5
The Dane, for the first time i wont be on your selection. i.m headin off to trainin so i would be missin the progress of my bet
still hope it crosses the line for you
1-1 was a fair result. FC Midtjylland missed a huge chance at the end but Nordsjaelland a penalty.
I’ll be back Friday and should have a more or less sure bet on FC Copenhagen for you then.
Until then I’m going to make some good use of the tips in here.
The Dane.
For anyone who hasn’t seen what Mr Fixit is going on about..
Worst decision made by a football referee ever !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKuLtLXl7FI
Bounty Punter, thanks for putting that link up. It’s the one I’ll never forget – apart from the decision to send off Bankies’ Tommy Martin against Auchinleck a couple of weeks ago.
That is quality hahahs
Mr fixit, I support the jags les mottram was the ref that day absolute joke
Joe, I’m sorry about that (being a Jags fan). My two memories of Jags are that Dundee Utd game – and I still laugh at the guy picking the ball up when I see it – and Bankies beating you 7-1 at Kilbowie with Ken Eadie hitting four on the last day of the season to win the Daily Record’s Golden Shot as it was then (1k to the first player in Scotland to hit 30 league goals). You might be too young to remember that one.
Patrick thistle v Dundee united
A fair while ago when Arbroath were in the first division.
when at gayfield the Jags fans always sung “sing when your fishing you only sing when your fishing”
Always found that quite amusing
Eddie, Milesey’s last comment suggests to me he should pay Gayfield a visit.
No Gay Bashing allowed MR F , you should know that ;) ;)
Milesey
Milesey, you’ll never get gay bashing from me, some of my friends are gay (or maybe just happy).
I’ve been to gay meadow though ;) ;) but never been to gay brighton ;)
Milesey
Milesey, best thing about Gayfield is the Arbroath smokies – not be missed.
We have Stevenage ” SMOKIES ” , the single mothers who hang around the town with a fag in hand and pushing a buggey ;) ;) not to be missed if your ever in this area ;)
Milesey
Milesey, the Arbroath smokies are a treat. If you’re ever as far north as that don’t miss out.
Hull
Caen
Veendam
Dinamo Bucharest
4 fold 11-1 william hill
Fish shops make a fortune when Arbroath are playing west coast teams
Always run out of smokies
Eddie, as do the Forfar bridie shops too. In the days when my team played the likes of Forfar regularly it was always a treat going up and having a bridie. But strangely I didn’t rate the ones inside the ground, had to be from the bakers down the road.
The ones in the ground are from Saddlers the place your on about is Mclarens and they are far better
Hi Mr F
time we had a top treble of teams to avoid. Heres my top 3.
EINTRACHT BRAUNSHITE Germany
top of the league….what ! They must be printing the tables upside down .Cost me a packet.
WATFORD
avoid at all cost .who can forget them throwing away the victory at Wolves last week only to follow up by throwing away a win at home to Blackpool.Championship chumps.
ANZHI Russia
couldnt even manage a goal at home to the Geordies and followed up by losing 2-0 to the leagues bottom side.
ALSO RANS CARDIFF .Home bottlers, pea hearts.
NEVER AGAIN SHALL ANY OF THE ABOVE TEAMS BE TRUSTED WITH MY HARD EARNED COIN.
Lol! Ur spot on Paul the bridies in the ground at station park are a great disappointment compared to the treat from the bakers in the town! Can’t beat stories of away day football trips! :)
Lionel, I’ve got some belters now that I’ve been to far flung places such as Maybole, New Cumnock, Kirriemuir, Carnoustie etc. That’s life in the juniors for you.
Hi Guys . Today is game Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce , Polish ekstraklasa ( 18:30 ) , Lechia sold his best player Traore to Gazianterspor . Korona started season from 4 points with actual champion Slask and best pretendent Legia , Lechia has 2 draws 1:1 , so you can play a little on posibillity to BTTS . But I play 2 DNB (without draw).
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce :
Korona DNB 1 to 2,4 ( I Mean from 1 Euro = 2,4 Euro ) :)
Korona Win 1 to 3
Lechia vs Korona – BTTS 1 to 1,75
Also Play Denmark on BTTS
Cheers :)
OK, so double could be Dinamo Bucharest and Korona.
a fancy Gdansk Paul Korona not won away in 8 attempts losing 5 drawing 3 and scoring 2 goals a think it is they may have lost Traore but Ricardinho will take over and do a fine job for Gdansk should score anaw the nyt but don’t see oods for it
or you could go by both teams less than impressive form that screams DRAW
Danny, right I’m on the double – Korona and Dinamo. I’ll send you a case of Corona if it wins.
that would be a nice treat Paul getting ridiculous here best deal on corona at the moment is 2 cases for $100
Danny, you can afford that mate.
lol its just aswell or id have to do something drastic like not get a booze
I have to say Paul I’d much rather go to those sort of places than all these plastic new grounds! Nothing worse than going to the falkirk stadium or broad wood or the excelsior! Give me brockville, shawfield and broomfield any day! If hibs ever moved from Easter road I’d be heartbroken!
Lionel, the good news is you can’t have football at Shawfield but you can at Ashfield and I’ve been there twice this season. A lovely dump. To be honest you need a happy medium. In the juniors you have good grounds such as Pollok, Petershill, Talbot, Bonnyrigg, Linlithgow, Bathgate etc and then there’s the likes of Glasgow Perthshire and Whitletts (which I think has now been condemned).
Oh I’ve been to many a junior ground Paul. I went to Perth on sat (shocker of a game btw) and got charged 23 quid entry plus a fiver to park my car miles from anywhere! Most new grounds love ripping you off for car parking! :( give me a ramshackle of a ground in a town centre with a pub and a bookies next door any day of the week. There’s many reasons football attendances have dwindled ( mainly standard of game and cost) and I honestly believe new plastic stadiums is one. Football used to be so much more than just going to the match it used to be a great day out!
Lionel, a fiver to park, that’s awful. It’s a fiver to get in to the Bankies which is great value. Really should charge more.
Oh and a early heads up for Friday night! Hibs a huge price to win at fir park! We’ve already won their this season and were much better away from home playing on the break than at Easter road. Kevin Thomson should start and we’ve got an exciting young lad called alex Harris (came on yesterday made an impression) who should start also added to sparky we look a knocking bet vs motherwell who have a few doubts ( Humphrey for one) and laws head may be turned with rangers on his trail. Not to mention the fact we have to win for top 6 and were raging after yesterday which adds further to our motivation! Over 3/1 get on! :)
Well after coming up short more often than not in midweek coupons recently by sticking teams in too increase potential returns I’ve decided too take a different approach and looked through the full weeks card and picked my favs from each day. 3 today, 4 tomorrow, 2 Wednesday and 3 Thursday. Stuck a 10er on the lot and it returns 1300 lol
Today – Dinamo Bucharest,Vaslui and Real Madrid Castillo
Tomorrow – Coventry,Yeovil,Southend and Barcelona
Wednesday – Bayern Munich and RC Salzburg
Thursday – Chelsea, Zenit and Fenerbahce
Hi… Wat do you think of a few correct score selections because the odds you would get on hull to win 4-2 … 4-1 or even 4-0 would be huge because they’re away…
Daleboi, the prices reflect the chances of it coming in. At 9-5 I’m more than happy to back Hull without thinking about a correct score.
your doubles in big trouble Paul 1 down and a man down
Danny, not my double mate. That Korona was yours and the Polish boy’s. Anyway as soon as I saw you tipping it left it alone! To be honest, I know nothing about them and I shouldn’t be on teams I don’t know unless Bounty Punter’s put them up because his record is unreal.
don’t know too much bout them myself just always prefer home teams specially in leagues like Poland Ukraine and so on. aye a wis shocked when a saw his tips earlier 2 teams I hadn’t heard of for a change
Caen game off!! Backed the other tips fingers crossed!! Thought the gedo n hull at 5-1 was a good bet!!
What’s john g tips the night that guys spot on ???
I’m goin for a single bet on hull tonight, just to recoup my weekend losses Darren. It’s good to see you posting mate
Reading have surprisingly sacked Brian McDermott today with just nine games of the season remaining.
The 51-year-old led the Berkshire club to automatic promotion last season but following four successive defeats in the Premier League the Royals are four points from safety and are currently red hot 1.13 favourites in Betfair‘s Relegation market.
But it is the timimg of the sacking that is the surprising aspect with a new manager having just nine games – perhaps less if not employed by the weekend – to guide Reading to safety.
A statement from the club read, “Owner Anton Zingarevich wishes to place on record his thanks to Brian”, before going on to say, “The search for a successor starts immediately. It is hoped a new manager will be in place as soon as possible.”
Some usual suspects are at the forefront of Betfair‘s Next Reading Manager market including Roberto di Matteo, Nigel Adkins, and Paolo Di Canio, all of whom have either resigned or been sacked from managerial roles already this season.
Reading’s next league game is this Saturday afternoon where they face the daunting task of going to Old Trafford to face champions elect Manchester United (a game in which they can be backed at 24.0 to win).
Any new boss might just want to wait until Monday morning before taking up his new role!
Doncaster Rovers 1.87 v Carlisle United 4.70, the draw 3.70
With the ever-changing position at the top of the table, one wonders how long Doncaster will stay at the summit? Saturday’s 2-1 win at Bournemouth installed Rovers as the division leaders, but that position has been like a relay race this term and they are still available to back at 4.20 in the League One winner market.
Donny have the best away record in the division but have lost only once at The Keepmoat in their last seven matches. During that run on home soil, they have conceded just five in their last six and look more efficient than stylish. They have some towering players and look for the diagonals.
Carlisle have ditched their passing style and diamond formation after the 3-0 defeat to Walsall two weeks ago, and have most certainly tightened up since that loss. All three of their most recent games have been under 2.5 goals, which is some turnaround for one of the worst defences in the division.
Blues boss Greg Abbott hailed Saturday’s 2-0 win over Brentford as his ‘best result since I have been at the club’, and they worked extremely hard to keep the Bees quiet by closing them down. I am slightly wary of that victory as it was their first win in seven games. Donny are solid at the moment, and are far more consistent.
Recommended bet:
Back Doncaster to win @ 1.87
Yeovil Town 2.20 v Crawley Town 3.70, the draw 3.50
Yeovil are four points from the league leaders Doncaster and yet are still available to back at odds-against at Huish Park this Tuesday. Not only are the Glovers keeping clean sheets (five from their last eight games), but they score too, and only Bournemouth and Swindon have netted more at home.
The Greens may have lost a bit of their cutting edge up front in their last couple of matches – drawing 0-0 on Saturday with Hartlepool, and last week’s 1-0 win over Tranmere, but they are still one of the form teams in the division.
There are not many games in which Yeovil record a ‘nil’, and their pace and power has been the highlight of an exceptional run of form.
Crawley will pose a different sort of threat to Yeovil’s recent opponents, as they like to pass the ball. However, they could be a mid-table team that could just fizzle out with nothing to play for. Six of their last eight matches have been under 2.5 goals, whilst two wins from nine games is hardly sparkling.
I would look to trade a low-scoring scoreline, whilst using the under 1.5 goals and 2.5 goals markets to get the stake for that bet. The safer play is to stick with a home win, as Yeovil should have enough quality to break down the visitors and according to Opta, have a league high 11 victories on their own patch.
Recommended bet:
Back Yeovil to win @ 2.20
Oldham Athletic 2.06 v Hartlepool United 4.00, the draw 3.45
This is the game that both dare not lose. With four points difference between the relegation strugglers, this might be an encounter in which the two teams will be very tentative and nervous, with neither wanting to over-commit.
On the plus side, Pools have been in fairly decent form of late and are keeping clean sheets. They are showing great desire and determination at the moment, and are definitely playing for their manager John Hughes. The north east outfit looked a little tired on Saturday, but a 0-0 scoreline against Yeovil represents a decent result.
Hartlepool don’t score many on the road, whilst Oldham have failed to find the net in their last two outings. Giant striker (and FA Cup hero) Matt Smith won’t feature having picked up an injury on Saturday. His aerial presence will be a huge blow.
The Boundary Park pitch is poor, and it might be a case of neither being able to break each other down. Pools went with a midfield ‘three’ against Yeovil, but Hughes might be a touch more defensive this Tuesday. Again using Hartlepool as a trade, I would play the 0-0 correct scoreline, with a poke at the unders looking the best bet. Opta stats would back this up if you are trading in the first 45 minutes, as the Latics have scored just 13 goals in the first-half of matches (a league low).
The draw In-Play would appeal most as an outright result pick.
Recommended bet:
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.80
Coventry City 1.80 v Colchester United 5.20, the draw 3.80
New Coventry City boss Steven Pressley faces his debut home game at the Ricoh in midweek, fresh from his first win as boss on Saturday with a 2-1 win at Scunthorpe. Leon Clarke scored again (his 21st of the season), and he should be fit for an important match to keep the Sky Blues’ play-off hopes alive.
Colchester played quite well at the weekend, only to lose 2-1 at home to Crewe. Prior to that they had kept three successive clean sheets and were showing a bit of fight.
The angle into this game is Colchester’s lack of away goals, only 14 in total and the league’s most impotent attack. With suspensions and injuries up front, Us boss Joe Dunne isn’t overly blessed in the attacking options. A dart at correct scorelines involving the visitors not scoring would be my idea of a couple of trades. But the strongest bet is sticking with the hosts, who according to Opta stats, are unbeaten in their last six meetings with the Essex side (winning five).
Recommended bet:
Back Coventry to win @ 1.80
Schalke v Galatasaray, Tuesday 19:45, Sky Sports 2, Match Odds: Schalke 1.75, Galatasaray 5.3, The Draw 4.1
While most of the world’s eyes will be transfixed on Barcelona’s Camp Nou for their glamour tie against AC Milan, Schalke and Galatasaray have some unfinished business to settle in Germany too.
In contrast to matters over in Spain however, this tie has much finer balance to it, on paper at least.
The first leg in Turkey produced an entertaining affair though the scoreline finished 1-1 to leave the hosts with the slight advantage as they head back to the Veltins-Arena.
With no previous history between the two sides other than their recent meeting, the answers to the identity of eventual winner may well be found in their recent form.
When the sides met a fortnight ago, it was the Germans who were scratching around like chickens in the dirt for a win on the domestic front.
However, they managed to stay as only one of three unbeaten in this year’s Champions League by securing the draw in Turkey and that result appears to have applied the defibrillators to a flat-lining domestic campaign.
Spurred on by the goalscoring exploits of Julian Draxler and Klaas Jan-Huntelaar – who will miss this game through injury – Schalke went on to win their last three Bundesliga games.
Saturday’s triumph over second-placed Borussia Dortmund provided the perfect platform for this encounter and closed the gap on Jurgen Klopp’s side to just seven points.
Meanwhile, Galatasaray slumped to a shock home defeat to Genclerbirligi at the weekend, following up a disappointing stalemate the week before.
Under/Over 2.5 goals
Neither side has been prolific in this season’s Champions League games and, judging by the first leg, this one doesn’t scream ‘goalfest’ either.
Galatasaray represent the lowest scorers still involved in the competition and rely far too heavily on Burak Yilmaz, who has scored seven of their eight goals.
Two of the Turkish side’s last three games in this competition have gone under the 2.5 mark, whereas Schalke’s previous three went south of the line.
Schalke have only scored more than twice on a solitary occasion in their last eight games in all competitions.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.32
Tuesday 19:45
Camp Nou (Live on ITV1)
Barcelona 1.34 Milan 10.0 draw 6.2
Match odds
Barcelona have been in similar losing positions in each of the last three seasons. They successfully turned the tie around only once – against Arsenal two years ago – suffering failures against Chelsea last season and Inter in 2010. Barring a last-minute Fernando Torres goal (seriously) they would have won all three home legs.
2-0 leads are hard to come by in the Champions League and not easily relinquished – even away from home. We’ve found four examples in the last decade of teams with a similar lead to Milan’s hitting the road for the second leg. On each occasion they made it through to the next round (W2-D2-L0). Among teams with any sort of two-goal lead (2-0, 3-1 or 4-2) 10/12 have won the tie.
Xavi knows the size of the job and is ready to put his creaking limbs on the line, but what if the tiki taka doesn’t work?
Stand-in boss Jordi Roura has looked short of back-up plans in recent weeks and it’s not clear what he might have come up with since Saturday’s game with Deportivo La Coruna reinforced the idea that the Catalans are a little too reliant on a single Argentinean.
Lionel Messi was hauled off the bench at the weekend as La Liga’s leaders struggled to break down its bottom side. He scored in the last minute but 2-0 was hardly the statement Roura wanted to make ahead of this game.
A nugget from Opta: Messi had one touch inside Milan’s box in the first leg and didn’t get a single shot on target.
Those are the sort of numbers Milan as a team might expect to post on Tuesday. And because they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight Champions League away games, it is hard to oppose a home win – even if the hosts’ qualification is doubtful.
Over/Under Goals
Max Allegri says his team needs an away goal, but the absence of Giampaolo Pazzini (ten goals in his last 12 Serie A appearances) and a club record of scoring only once in five away legs make that difficult.
This could be a game to buck the trend. Barca have not scored more than twice in any of their four games since the first leg, while Milan are unbeaten since Christmas and 6/6 away games since then have stayed Under 2.5 Goals.
Half Time/Full Time
If Milan maintain the defensive discipline and effort they showed in the first leg, they will take some breaking down.
Barcelona will likely find a way through at some point, but why shouldn’t that be later in the game – when the toll of work is more likely to induce an error among Milan’s defenders or when the pressure of an impending deadline could force the home side into all-out attack.
Barcelona/Barcelona will start an odds-on favourite in the double-result market. With their opponents prepared to ride the punches, rather than go toe-to-toe, this could go the distance and we prefer the much longer price on Barcelona drawing at half-time and only winning at full-time.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.1
Back Draw/Barcelona @ 5.5
Milesey ( Betfair )
Schalke v Galatasaray, Tuesday 19:45, Sky Sports 2
Galatasaray have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 away games in the Champions League
This tie is hanging on a knife edge following a tense 1-1 draw in Turkey. The slight advantage lies with the Schalke and the German hosts will be buzzing after completing their third straight Bundesliga win in a row against second-placed Borussia Dortmund at the Veltins-Arena on Saturday. With attacking midfielder Julian Draxler hitting scoring form with three goals in his last two starts, you’d expect to see a confident Schalke side register a few more goals, despite Klaas-Jan Huntelaar’s absence.
Recommended Bet: Back Julian Draxler to score @ 3.9
Galatasaray have scored only eight goals in seven Champions League games this season, the lowest among the 16 teams still left in the competition
Clearly, one of the hindrances to qualification for the Turkish visitors is their inability to score multiple goals. In stark contrast to their hosts, Galatasaray have warmed up for this one with two really poor results in which they have twice failed to trouble the scoresheet. Joint top scorer in this year’s competition Burak Yilmaz appears the only man capable of scoring for the Turks, after notching seven of their eight goals to date.
Back Schalke to win to nil @ 3.3
Wycombe 3.0 v Rotherham 2.5; The Draw 3.5
Rotherham’s squad know that back-to-back defeats at this stage of the season will really bring out the angry bear in Steve Evans. Strangely, the Millers seem to slip up more in their new home – defeat to Dagenham being further evidence – than away.
Last Tuesday they smashed in-form Oxford 4-0 at the Kassam. So this week they should be able to pick off a Wycombe side who have talent but who have lost four in six, with recent scorelines suggesting that if they gain points it is by narrow margins. Wycombe have scored five and conceded 11 in six games, while Rotherham’s haul is pretty much the reverse.
Evans stuck with the same team for the third game running but suffered a late defeat on Saturday and of course will now have centre-back Kari Arnason suspended for two games after his dismissal. Crucially, Evans has the experience of hauling a team – Crawley – back into the automatic promotion slots at the end of last season, before leaving with a few weeks to go. Port Vale’s poor run means more than one automatic promotion slot is up for grabs, providing the Millers with even stronger incentive.
The visitors’ attacking forces of Alex Revell, Daniel Nardiello and Kayode Odejayi should put the hosts to the sword.
Recommended Bet:
Back Rotherham @ 2.5
Bristol Rovers 2.9 v Port Vale 2.6; The Draw 3.55
Port Vale seem to have imploded, leading to some headlines that Micky Adams’ job was on the line. It came from his own quote that suggested, if they don’t win the promotion that has looked on the cards most of the season, the Valiants would be looking for a new manager. He admitted he had made the wrong selections as the Vale Park natives became restless during defeat to Southend on Saturday.
Somehow he has to shake the Valiants out of a malaise which has seen they win just once (at out-of-sorts Torquay) in seven games, scoring just three goals, despite a clearly talented squad that, as Opta point out, are the league’s highest scorers with 67 goals.
Bristol Rovers have won three of their last four games at the Memorial Stadium, with three clean sheets, including defeating promotion chasers Burton and Exeter in the last fortnight.
I don’t expect Vale’s poor run to last much longer, but even without facing Rovers’ injured winger Joe Ansinyah this could just be another game without a win, hence a lay at a risky big price.
Recommended Bet:
Lay Port Vale @ 2.6
Southend 1.84 v AFC Wimbledon 5.0; The Draw 3.75
Graham Coughlan, who stood in for ill Shrimpers boss Paul Sturrock, believes what happens next is the most important aspect of victory over Port Vale.
He joked he might just retire after one match and one win “in charge” but he might just be right to do so. Southend’s inconsistency is the reason they are trying to bridge the considerable gap from eighth to seventh place.
Three home games now in succession would give natural hope of improving their lot. However, they are all against teams near the bottom, starting with AFC Wimbledon, who have battled their way to 11 points from six games. The attitude of Neil Ardley that he wanted five wins indicates he will go for broke in each game.
They earned the first win having been pegged back twice against York, who had new manager Nigel Worthington to impress. Harry Pell epitomised Hereford’s battling when they were in League Two and has two goals in three games, pointers that indicate the visitors could gain reward here. The recruitment of Kelly Youga, the former Charlton defender, blosters them and their chances.
Southend have enough form to suggest the Dons may not repeat their big-priced victory for me at Dagenham the other week, so caution indicates a home lay.
Recommended Bet:
Lay Southend @ 1.84
Aldershot 2.64 v Burton 2.96; The Draw 3.4
The Brewers have won once on the road in 10 attempts – a 4-0 demolition of a Fleetwood side at their lowest ebb. That has not sprung an expected turnaround in away form, although it did help to propel them to the top of the six-game table.
Just six goals and three points from the other nine away games and Aldershot’s recent run that includes six draws from 11 games indicate a tight, low-scoring affair.
Even if Danny Hylton does not return from last week’s freak training injury, Andy Scott will not want to lose his unbeaten record – and Aldershot, Opta say, are having their best run of the season with six unbeaten matches.
Scott also knows that keeper Jamie Young can handle it if, like against Bradford, he is faced with a barrage of attacks. Backing under 2.5 goals seems like the best course of action.
Recommended Bet:
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.8
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Bayern Munich v Arsenal
Kick Off: 19:45
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2
“It will be difficult, but let’s try to make the impossible, possible,” Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger said, after his side’s 3-1 defeat to Bayern Munich at the Emirates last month in the first leg of their last 16 Champions League tie.
Just how difficult is clear from the history of this competition. Since the European Cup began only seven teams have managed to successfully overturn a first leg defeat at home. They are Milan in 1955, Ajax in 1969, Nottingham Forest in 1980, Steaua Bucharest in 1994, Ajax once again in 1996 and Inter in 2011.
It’s a staggeringly low number and, as if any further confirmation were needed, amply demonstrates the size of the task facing Arsenal at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday night. The Exchange understandably has them at 38.0 to qualify.
Arsenal must hope for the kind of blackout Bayern suffered in October when they lost 3-1 to BATE Borisov, a result that looks like an aberration within the context of the rest of their record-breaking season.
It did look for a while as though they might slip up on Saturday. Twice Bayern fell behind at home to Fortuna Dusseldorf. And if Wenger and his players were watching, which seems likely given they didn’t play this weekend and are well-rested for the trip to Munich, then they would have been encouraged right up until the 74th minute. For that’s when Franck Ribery equalised again and Dusseldorf’s belief in an unlikely win ended. Jerome Boateng would get the winner four minutes from time to seal Bayern’s fifteenth straight victory.
It all must have been pretty soul-destroying for those Arsenal players who did perhaps tune in. This Bayern, it seems, are never beaten.
“Last season we would have lost this kind of match,” goalkeeper Manuel Neuer said. “Our cohesion is exceptional.”
That doesn’t bode well for Arsenal who wish to replicate the second leg showing they put on against Milan this time last season when they won 3-0 at the Emirates and improbably threatened to take the tie to extra-time after a 4-0 first leg defeat at San Siro. Bayern, as Neuer alluded to, have a resilience about them, however, a mental strength that makes the prospect of this happening distinctly unlikely.
They’ve lost just once at home all season and have never conceded more than two in a game. So dominant have they been in the Champions League in the current campaign that they have been winning both at half-time and full-time in five of their last seven matches in the competition. Back them to do the same on Wednesday at 2.8.
Recommended Bet: Bayern Munich/Bayern Munich in the HT/FT market at 2.8
Malaga v Porto
Kick Off: 19:45
TV: Live on Sky Sports 4
Elsewhere in Europe things are much more delicately poised between Malaga and Porto. This is certainly the more intriguing of Wednesday night’s ties. Porto take a 1-0 lead to the Rosaleda and might be made to regret not making more of the possession they had at the Dragao. Joao Moutinho’s goal, the one that separates them, should have been ruled out for offside too.
“Our first goal was to win. Our second goal was not to concede,” Porto coach Vitor Pereira said after the first leg. “But after the great quality match that we played from the first to the last minute, I think we deserved a second goal. I’m not completely satisfied in that we couldn’t get a goal to make it 2-0; that would have been a fairer reflection of what happened on the pitch.”
Alas, it wasn’t to be and Malaga were let off the hook. “The scoreline is one we can turn around,” insisted coach Manuel Pellegrini. “Returning to our own stadium we will be confident of reversing the situation.”
Malaga have yet to lose at home in this their maiden Champions League campaign. Their record stands at three wins and one draw.
That said, they haven’t won any of their last four games in all competitions, scoring just the once. Their potent left-hand side, crucial to the team’s balance, is no longer what it once was following the sale of Nacho Monreal to Arsenal and the injury suffered by Eliseu.
Attacking isn’t coming as easy as did earlier in the season. In Pellegrini’s words Malaga “played very badly offensively” in Oporto. “We wanted to be offensive,” he said, “but Porto wouldn’t allow us to be.”
Star players Isco and Joaquin were rested at the weekend. Porto, however, will trust in their ability to go to the Rosaleda, get an away goal and preserve their advantage. They’ve kept seven clean sheets from nine Champions League matches this season and can be backed to record another one at 3.4. Under 1.5 goals also has an attraction at 3.25.
Recommended Bet: Under 1.5 Goals at 3.25
why would arsenal be destroyed watching bayern against a poor team in which bayern let 2 goals in thats gives us arsenal faith arsenal would have been thinking bayern win 4-0 even 5-0 but we can get a win :)
Milesey, it’s strange timing from Reading as you say. It’s almost not worth a boss taking a team because he’s facing the sack the next season in a tougher league.
Indeed he done a great job getting Reading to the prem in the first place, and they were always going to struggle, favourites to relegated at the start of the season, the chairman obviously thinks a new man in charge will get the team clear in the last 9 games, going to lose saturday, so it’ll be 8 games to get them clear, he can’t change the team at all, unlike Harry at QPR, what made more sense at the time for Harry is a demon in the transfer market… wouldn’t even like to speculate who will take over Reading, for they will have to get the team ready to try and get promotion again next season from the Championship.
Milesey
http://allscorers.com/Mino.html
Watch this goal from last night..the whole clip..shows ya the swerve from face on…
gone over 2.5 in the linfield shamrock rovers game..at just under evens gl all with your bets
On a brighter note for Scottish football the women’s team beat Italy today 2-1
Paul/Milesey/Muzza…did u watch the clip of that goal I posted from Paraguay last night?..whacha think? Bet ya widna see anything like that ay Corby..Stevenage or Clydebank’s grunds!!! :-)) F***in beeeeeeeeeauty of a strike!!
Beauty Guido! Reminds me of one I scored many moons ago for Cobblers reserves – I wish!!! Lol
is that not one of the best free kicks yer ever likely to see Muzz?..when it hit the net it was going faster..was just flicking thru WH site aboot 11pm n the stream was on..thot this team Capiata r playing well, 20 mins left and 9/1 in play..fired a few bob on and watched it..then that goal in 92 mins!! one of those rare moments that you cant help but…wining the dosh was nice but after seeing that goal the money didn’t really matter!! Screeeeeeeeeeeamer!!!
Guido, it wasn’t bad. See goals like that every week watching the Bankies.
Milesey i got tip abt 5 or 6 weeks ago 4 horse. Called. Puffin billy 4 cheltenham. I. C. Its running 2morrow. Do u no much abt it
Puffin Billy is set to line up in the William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival after a change of heart from trainer Oliver Sherwood.
The five-year-old won two bumpers and two hurdles before meeting with the first defeat of his career at Exeter last time out, finishing nine lengths adrift of Melodic Rendezvous over two miles and a furlong, however he was subsequently found to have an injury to one of his feet after that contest.
He could now clash with that rival again at Prestbury Park on Tuesday after Sherwood confirmed he will run in the two-mile Supreme rather the longer Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle.
“I’m almost certain that he will run in the Supreme Novices’ now,” Sherwood told skysports.com.
“It was a decision that was everything to do with the weather and nothing to do with the opposition or anything like that – I’m just glad that I left him in the Supreme at the six-day stage on Wednesday because I could not have done.
“The owner has been fantastic and always said that it would be my decision and I just think with the ground the way it is going to be, going two miles five would be a real slog for a horse who hasn’t been over the trip before.
“With the water table so high, it has only taken a relatively small amount of rain to make a massive difference and there’s no doubt in my mind that it is going to proper soft ground.
“I’ve been really pleased with him since we sorted him out after his last race and now we just need a bit of luck in the race.”
——————————————————
AFTER IT’S LAST RUN OUT
———————-
OLIVER SHERWOOD on Monday revealed that a minor foot problem may have been the cause of promising hurdler Puffin Billy’s losing his unbeaten record at Exeter.
He is full of hope that the William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle entry will make a quick recovery and bid to avenge his defeat at Cheltenham next month.
The dual bumper winner went off 4-5 favourite to land a third straight jumping success in a Listed novice hurdle at Exeter on Sunday, only to be beaten nine lengths into second by Melodic Rendezvous.
Puffin Billy was found to be lame on the evening of racing and after a morning check-up his trainer said: “My farrier has found quite a nasty corny, puffy foot which has burst open. It’s quite common with the weather so wet; their feet get soft and it’s like a blood blister underneath your foot.
“That would be 100 per cent why he ran like he did on Sunday. That’s why he hung right after the second-last. I knew something wasn’t right but thank god it’s not long-lasting.
“He’ll be fine in a few days’ time. He’s got to have a couple of days’ poulticing. But he’ll be back in light work at the beginning of next week.”
Sherwood added: “I’m not going to count my chickens and we’ll take it day by day but god willing he’ll go to Cheltenham. Obviously it’s not good going there on a poor run, but we know there was a reason why he ran like he did.”
Rosario Central n Lanus tonite.
Goal was a peach Guido! Is that a good double shout tonight? All my bets postponed.
What bets ya have on that was postponed?? Rosario koff at 8…one of their founders/first president was Scottish..kinda follow them..top of 2nd div…5/6 tonite..Lanus were 4/5 last might when I put them on cos I was fairly sure they’d be cut..but still 4/5. I’d be verrrry surprised if Lanus don’t win…playing really well yet to conceded a goal and Arsenal r in middle of the Copa Libertadores…2 games a week/stretched to limit. Teams in the CL rarely mange to do well in both comps…too tough going/demanding. nithing cert of course but I’d be really surprised if they don’t win and by a couple!!?
Gateshead
Caen
And Dutch JL games
Guido, Hull, Granada and Dinamo Bucharest have done me proud tonight so that’s me for just now. Will use the winnings on Cheltenham tomorrow where I’ll follow Milesey.
Cheers milesey. Will take a chance. E w would.
Be gutted. If. It. Won. And. Wasnt. On. It
PUFFIN BILLY @ 17.5 betfair exchange
14-1 bet365 14-1 tote coral 12-1 willy hill 12-1
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
commission free cheltenham tuesday @ BETFAIR
Milesey
I hope you on commission Milesey? Hahahahaa
HOPE NOBODYS GOT ANYTHING RIDING ON EINTRACHT BRUNSHITE TONIGHT, THERE LOSING AT HOME AGAIN
Fathead, you’ve put us right off them. Don’t think anyone on this site backs them anymore although I see they got a point in the end.
Milesey…what day/race in Cue Card running in?..was he entered in a couple??
Ryanair Chase
Day 3 – Thursday 14th March 2013 – 2.40pm – Ryanair Chase – Grade 1 – 2mf
CUE CARD 3-1
Milesey
KK..Thanks. Ya fancy him?
no, you can have him all to yourself ;) ;) ;)
Milesey
I’ll see if i can get him to sign a poster for you for your bedroom wall ;) ;)
Milesey
haha..aye…that wid be something..getting a pencil between his hoofs!
I’ll get a shoe print for you ;)
Milesey
Milesey be like a wee boy on Xmas eve tonite…no able to sleep, tossin n turnin all night. :-)How far Stevenage to Chelts?
That’s me sorted then…lucky 15 on Zarkandar, Far West, Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti. No more Chelts bet for me..one a day…pick up a wedge on Friday c 4pm :-) :-)
110 MILES, about 2 hours drive ;) ;)
Milesey
What happened to the Caen game milesey? Does it become void now?
Yes CAEN game is VOID , so is the Veendam game if you had that one aswell.
Milesey
Cheers mate!
Well in hull, great price too
THINKING ABOUT HITTING MY TENT OR YOURS 15/8 Bet365 what do you think
Good shout from you and Milesy on Hull tonight, Mr F. I also went with The Dane for HX in Denmark game.
Great tipping – cheers, gents
The UHT, it’s never a sure thing but Hull were a good price and as I said if you stop Austin scoring you’ll probably beat Burnley.
Hey mr f, yeah i remember that 7-1 game i think i iwas about 11 or 12 at the time sat there till the end on the wooden seats ken eadie must have scored all the time against us same as owen coyle did for airdrie. only good thing about that game was i stay in drumchapel other side of drumry roundabout and was only 5mins in my old man’s car
Joe, I was right about you being a few years younger. What I remember most about that game was the fact someone hitting the 30-mark had taken everyone by surprise. Don’t think anyone saw Eadie scoring four to hit 30. It was the last day of the season and Bankies players were heading off to Spain that night. But I managed to alert the Record about Eadie winning that Golden Shot and they got the trophy, champers and a snapper to the airport just in time. But I think all Eadie was interested in was the £1k prize – a lot of money back then.
you got a start up thread for tips tomorrow going up tonight ? and the horse racing away from cheltenham festival tomorrow ?
Milesey
Nice tipping on Rosario and Lanis, Guido. Bang on the money :)
Paul i just checked it out there it was 90/91 season i was coming up for 10 face hanging off me. 1K would have been a fortune back then. Also i just saw that the next year after the famous goal that never stood. never did les mottram any harm he was a referee at the 1994 world cup. and also made only an excuse!
Joe, reckon Mottram made loads of excuses. I was trying not to remember the year although I knew it was pre-1993 as that’s when I joined the Record. Twenty years service coming up – and a few extra days off to celebrate.
Nice work Mr fixit, I was on hull tonight. Cheers
John g, nice bet although bit of a sweat.
Aye, not half, I was glad when full time came.