Sunday, Wembley, 4pm
THERE is no logical reason for Bradford appearing in the Capital One Cup Final – the same way as there is nothing to suggest they'll live with Swansea at Wembley.
The Premier League men are bidding to become the first Welsh side to lift the trophy while the Bantams, in their first final since 1911, aim to be the fourth tier's debut winners.
Bradford, according to Oddschecker, were 10,000-1 to lift the trophy at the start of the season with the Swansea a biggest 64-1.
Having beaten Premier League Wigan, Arsenal and Aston Villa you have to respect Phil Parkinson's minnows. But boss Michael Laudrup showed his hand by resting players at Liverpool last weekend and I can't see the Dane failing.
To win in 90 minutes it's Bradford 9-1 (BetVictor) and Swansea 2-5 (Ladbrokes) while Bradford, who have won nine shootouts in a row, are 16-1 at Paddy Power to triumph on penalties with Swansea 14-1.
The man the underdogs must fear is Spanish striker Michu who has netted 15 goals this season.
He is 7-2 at Paddy Power and William Hill to bag the opener and 10-11 at William Hill to score at any time.
Bradford's best chance of a goal could come from top scorer Nakhi Wells who is 10-1 at Paddy Power and Hills.
Interestingly, 14 of the last 20 goals both teams have scored came after the break, according to Oddschecker. The second half to feature more than two goals pays 16-5 at BetVictor.
Bradford have netted in seven of their last eight and those seven have featured more than 2.5 goals. Let's hope for an exciting and action-packed final and over 3.5 goals pays 9-5 at BetVictor.
Swansea can pass teams to death and the wide open spaces at Wembley shoud suit their game. I can see them winning by at least two (11-10, Ladbrokes) and 2-0 or 3-1.
Recommendations
Michu to score first
(7-2, William Hill, Paddy Power)
Second half most goals
(16-5, BetVictor)
Swansea -1
(11-10, Ladbrokes)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
I like Swansea to Nil and also Michu anytime is a nice price ;)
Milesey
A whopping seventy-two Football League places separate Capital One Cup finalists Swansea City and Bradford City ahead of their Wembley clash on Sunday – and it’s a tie which has captured the imaginations of football fans all over Britain.
1) This one means as much to Swansea as it does to Bradford
Michael Laudrup’s side are within touching distance of winning their first ever major trophy – and to secure the silverware on Sunday would cap a meteoric rise for the Liberty Stadium side.
With the Jacks sitting comfortably in the top half of the Premier League, and just seven points behind fifth placed Arsenal, it’s easy to forget that just 18 months ago the South Wales side made their first baby steps in the top tier since 1981/2.
And I think that the recent history of the Welsh side – as well as Bradford’s impressive list of scalps so far in this competition – will be enough to prevent the Premier League side becoming complacement ahead of this clash.
Laudrup has being playing the media in the last few days in an attempt to inflict just the right amount of pressure onto his squad, and has already pointed out that he considers this game to be a case of ‘under-underdog v underdog’ rather than ‘underdog v big club’.
Indeed, it’s worth remembering that he Swans have taken their own fair share of scalps on their way to the final of this competition – with Liverpool and Chelsea both tasting defeat at the hands of the Welsh club.
History buffs may be interested to note that Swansea have lost just one of their last eight meetings with Parkinson’s side – but, let’s be honest, they are worlds apart now.
That’s not to say tomorrow will mean any less to the Welsh, though. As well as a piece of coveted silverware, a win in this final would offer Laudrup’s side a guaranteed place in the Europa League next campaign – and that would lift a lot of pressure off the Welsh side over their league run-in.
2) Swansea welcome back well-rested, quality players
Swansea haven’t been at their best over the last couple of weeks – just one win since mid-January underlining that.
Indeed, they were thrashed 5-0 at Liverpool last time out, but little can be read into that, as they fielded a much-changed side with this game in mind.
With key players Michu, Angel Rangel and Wayne Routledge to return to the starting line up and chomping at the bit following their rest last week against Liverpool, the Swans’ attacking quality will be a worry to their opponents – and if you fancy the hotshot Spaniard to add to his 18 goals this season, you can back him to score first at 4.6.
But I reckon the smart money might lay in Jonathan De Guzman at 9.4. The Dutch international, on loan from Villareal, has a wicked shot on him – and, as designated free kick specialist, he will be on hand to take advantage of any over zealous defending from the Bradford rearguard. He could well add to his five goals this season at Wembley.
3) When Swansea score first, they don’t tend to lose
Laudrup will be keen for his side to go out and kill the game from the off – and an early goal could lead to the rout which some are predicting.
Of the last six games in which they’ve scored, Swansea have nicked the first goal of the game on each of those occasions – and have won four and drawn two from those ties.
That suggests that once ahead, the Welsh side are a decent bet to take at least a point – and for that reason I reckon the 2.08 available on Swansea/Swansea in the Half Time/Full Time market is worth a look.
4) Swansea will have a lot of the ball – and that’s where they’re dangerous
It’s expected that Swansea will enjoy the majority of possession tomorrow. After all, Bradford’s previous scalps Wigan and Arsenal had 58% and 63% of the play in their games.
But Laudrup’s side will need to show initiative if they are to find ways to break down Bradford in the final third – and having scored 92% (35 of 38) of their 2012/13 goals from open play, they are well equipped to turn the key.
Although the Welsh side don’t tend to score from corners, I sense that their pressure may result in the ball being put into touch fairly often. Wigan and Arsenal were awarded 11 and 13 corners a piece in their ties – and Over 13.5 Corners for Laudrup’s side is priced at a tempting 2.32 in this final.
5) Ultimately, the Jacks are decent value
for the win
Though short, I reckon that Laudrup’s charges are priced about right for the win here, at 1.4 – and those odds have drifted slightly from 1.38/1.39 since Wednesday and Thursday last week (not a lot, but every little helps).
But there is much value in the secondary markets, too. A back of Swansea -1 & -1.5 on an Asian Handicap at odds of 1.82 could be one way to maximise profit without asking too much of the Premier League side, and with 12 goals scored in their half a dozen Capital One Cup outings this campaign, the Welsh side do seem to be able to produce goals in this competition.
It might be worth waiting until 10/15 minutes into the game when, if it’s still goalless, the odds should start to drift. Laudrup’s side have scored seven of their 13 first half goals this year after the 15 minute mark.
Milesey
Sounds like yer extremely hot on Swansea Milesey.. it makes sense..and of coure Bradford shoodna be there..be daft to underestimate yjem tho them when they’ve overcome so many “better” teams to get there. What statisticians n expert fail to quantify is “heart” n “drive” n “determination”…as an ex Para that’s why we did and others didn’t!!
Should that not say Betfair at the bottom, and not Milesay?
I’ve just read the same tip, word for word, on Betfair.
hahaha, how long you been on this site ?
I work for BETFAIR ! HA HA HA
Milesey
My mum works for Betfair. Does that mean she’s allowed to copy and paste their tips, word for word, and pass them off as her own? :-)
hahaha, not even going to explain to you what it is i actually do, this conversation gets very boring and been through it all before ;), if your mum wants to copy and paste information from any site she wants and thinks it will help people out to win money then tell her to go for it, i certainly wouldn’t knock her for doing it if it makes me money !
Milesey
haha ;-)
Bryan Mum! :-)
1-1 michu 1st goal swans win on pens
I’m really tempted to take arsenal to finish 3rd @ 7/2. Anyone any thoughts? Will drop tomorrow if city beat Chelsea!
knottsy take it its dead cert
Sunday
Man City v Chelsea
I suspect Man City still have some sting left in their tail and won’t be giving up on their title chances just yet. I also think it will be Chelsea who pay the price for being in the wrong place, at the wrong time.
Not that these are the best of times for Chelsea anyway. They slumped to an abject draw with Sparta Prague in midweek and have an ever-growing number of fans who want boss Rafa Benitez to depart. Also, consistency has been in short supply for the Blues of late, with dropped points coming against Southampton and Reading and Newcastle.
But despite their sketchy form, there’s been no lack of goals. Eight of Chelsea’s last 10 matches were high-scoring, at an average of almost four goals per games. Moreover, eight of their last ten away games have also been full of goals.
City meanwhile are raring to go. Roberto Mancini has star striker Sergio Aguerro back fit, and has challenged his side to finish the season strongly. And I think they’ll do just that, in a goal-packed game that should prove the highlight of the weekend.
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.8
Wolves v Cardiff
These two sides could be playing in different divisions next year, with Cardiff leading the promotion race and Wolves currently in the relegation zone. That said though, the seemingly big difference between these sides may not be too apparent on Sunday, as I just don’t see there being many goals.
The reason I say that, is because Cardiff like to keep things tight on their travels. Of their last five away games, two ended in 1-0 wins and two ended goalless, with only a 2-1 win at Blackpool ruining the low-scoring run. Moreover, seven of the Welsh side’s last 10 games anywhere have been short on goals. Cardiff are in grind mode at present, and will be looking to eke out another 1-0 win this weekend, to edge them towards their return to the Premier League.
And that should suit Wolves just fine. For them, every point is precious at the moment. Indeed a draw here could be enough to get Wolves out of the drop zone, if results go their way elsewhere. And so I expect caution from both sides. From Wolves, because they need to be, and from Cardiff because it simply serves them well.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.89
Milesey
Stats n words n experts opinions are always appreciated..what some individuals cant quantify or appreciate is spirit n determination n will to win as well as physical ability. That’s why some folks get into Marines and Paratroopers and others talk about how tough they are/what they believe they’ve done but achieve f**8 all n hang on others coat-tails n money….big talk no substance…these folk probably know who they are on this site…?..eh?…gerra job n life lads :-)
hahaha, whats up with you tonight Guido ?
Milesey
Guido mate, everything ok ?
Haha..yes Dave fine..thanks. Just laffin at some of the earlier “big man” comments..makes ya laff…?? ;-) Dunna think I’ll sleep tonite with some some of these tales!! :-)
ah thats alright then matey, just wondering if your ok dude. You got anything on for tonight, i was waiting for your tip, Lanus?. If your not sleeping are you working out the tips for tom?. Do you go for the btts, they are theh only ones that seem to come off for me mate. Im looking at the early PSV game as btts and looking to see what else is worth it ;). Thoughts?
BTTS is ok Dave..just do 2or 3 max tho…wee bit hit n miss..tho its nice cood have em all up after 5 mins in theory !! its a bit hit n miss…isn’t life tho??
haha nuthin Milesey nuthin to do wi u hope ya didna thin k that..quite the opposite..getting amused at some of the big/dangerous beast talk earlier. makes me laff. :-) I went to college/ uni after that para days as well..
William hill enhancing an anytime scorer of michu and Swansea win to 6/4, surely if he bags they shall win so taking a 10/11 to a 6/4 is a decent enhancement
Matthew, I agree that’s a great offer on Michu.
Milesey/Dave..thanks for asking lads..just a bit miffed with sum earlier posta/not directed at me or anything n certainly my retort no aimed at you pair..hope u didn’t think that ffs?.. just sum comments amuse me..duna wanna name names ya know?…. :-)
its ok Guido mate didnt seem like you tbh. I was just checking your ok. Something has been said by someone and as you say best not to name names but dont let it bother you mate, as i am sure you know any idiot can use cheap words behind a screen ;)
Gonna do a Milesey..As Elvis wid sing…. “I am tired and need thy helping hand to guide me over thy darkest hour..oh just open mine eyes that I may may see..lead me oh Lord won’t you lead me!!” :-) hahaha
lol i think your tips are better than your singing lol
hahaha,,F&&& the last few days I dunna think so Dave!!…shite in other words!!..coodna pick ma nose! Fancied All Boys to beat Boca n Lanus to beat Velez..tonite but thot be jinxed so said f%%% all :-)
Someone was asking for Ki man of the match. He is 20/1 with Ladbrokes and VC
Michu to score anytime in first 10 mins is 18/1 @ Ladbrokes. May be worth a small wager.
Especially if they are going out for an early goal
Swansea to be winning after 30 mins @ 6/4. Great price.
Paul what do you reckon about Wayne Routledge to score anytime at 5/1 with William Hill? He is as short as 2/1, 9/4, 5/2 elsewhere
Chris, I’m sticking with Michu first and anytime. The 5-1 is obviously biggish but it doesn’t mean it will come in. Thought you might fancy Ki.
Cheers for that Chris guy, worth a wee big of interest
Swansea -1 is a great price as part of an accum
Stevie H, if Swansea -1 is a great price it’s a great price as a single.
Two recent articles by milesey were actually written by Jonno Turner and Rory Delargy. At the bottom of the Betfair page it states that articles are protected by copyright and must not be used for any purpose. ADMIN you have been warned!!!
Rob, we’ve been over this before. Milesey works for Betfair and contributes to the articles. By the way how many sites do you think cut and paste my betting pieces and use them as their own. Plenty.
Hahaha, no worries i’ll ask Jonno Turner and Rory Delargy both personally when i see them if they have a problem with this ;) i doubt they will for they put their articles up on the betfair site for all to see. I’ll ask them though and give you some feedback on it Rob for i know it concerns you, and your getting worried.
Was going to share a cracking tip i just got from my mate Gordon Elliott, but don’t want to put it on here now, for it might break copyright laws and confidentiality, so i’ll keep this one to myself today, but he has a couple of nice horses out today. Don’t want to break any laws ;) ;)
There goes all my cheltenham tips then, for i am working with the timeform team all the way upto Cheltenham and going to a few yards, so if i post any of it then i am just copying what they are saying ;)
Milesey
Milesey, we’ve got to laugh. Betfair get a few mentions on this site and I’m sure they are happy about the free promotions.
You don’t even have a link for BETFAIR and they are the number 1 exchange, was going to say bookie then, but they aren’t a bookie ;) ;)
Milesey
Milesey, you can talk to admin about links but as you say they’re not a bookie and we don’t have any exchanges on.
May seem a daft question but does score anytime only for 90 mins or include extra time.
lads. im going wit me heart and puttin a small bet on bradford for defying the odds and getting to the final. if they win you would have a big profit for a small bet. i always like to c the underdog doing well. jimmy
Pobster22 its only for 90 mins plus injury time for first scorer. Extra time doesn’t count.
Same as anytime
Nice call but won’t touch this match, I see Bradford wining the match!
Where is the michu to score in the first 10mins bet? Can’t see it anywhere on the ladbrokes site
Martin its in the shop, William hill. Just right it on a slip there are no coupons.
TIPS FOR TODAY
Swansea vs Bradford
Swansea to be winning after 30 mins @ 6/4 Lads
Michu First Goalscorer @ 7/2 Hills
Michu anytime first 10 mins @ 18/1 Hills
Routledge anytime Goalscorer @ 5/1 Hills
Celtic vs Dundee
Ledley First Goal @ 16/1 Coral
Adam Matthews First Goal @ 33/1 Coral
Ledley anytime @ 6/1 Coral
Adam Matthews anytime @ 12/1 Coral
Good luck everyone
Muzza, I don’t want bickering today with you, Chris and Milesey. He can call them whatever he wasnt – tips, bets, whatever. People here know he’s a punter putting up a comment, same as you.
Milesy how do you know the price for the michu anytime in the first ten mins? I can’t find the bet anywhere and would hate to put it on only to go and collect my winnings and be told that the bet is void as the market doesn’t exist!
Martin, many bookies do that market so have a look at oddschecker or betrescue.
Mr fix
i have this games yesterday
man utd to win
watford draw no bet
swindon draw no bet
northampton draw no bet
z.weregem draw not bet
but weregem game was postponed but my slip hasnt been settled yet
Flyboivince, has the Waregem been rearranged. Bookies won’t settle if it’s played within 24 hours of scheduled kick-off unless you ask them.
Come on guys we’re all tipsters in our own way, it’s obviously Mr F’s site but we all have our little tips on things he might not follow or spot, i’m going to put a bet on Ledley anytime from Chris’s and Mr F’s tips as i didn’t know much about him
John, the site allows punters to put up their own thoughts and people can debate the merits, take them or leave them. I’m not sure what Muzza’s problem is with this one. Some folk have it in for Chris Guy but all’s he done is put up his bets, his tips, and we welcome the participation.
Got a £50 free bet looking for a top tip or some advice please.
Thinking cardiff look ok
Andy, the rest of my tips will be up soon. What sort of odds are you looking at?
Thinking evens or above Mr fix it. Just to get some return. Obviously if you got a dead cert 12-1 I will take that lol
Andy, I wish I had a 12-1 dead cert. If the free bet’s with Hills take the enhanced 6-4 on Michu to score. Otherwise he’ll be close to evens.
No problem mr F but the rest of us do not profess to be “Tipsters” and it is blatantly obvious the chosen one is not. No more comments from me though – scouts honour!
OK, we’ll leave up but all he’s said is “tips for today”. I think you’re nitpicking – and by the way good luck when it’s your turn at the contest. Two seeds out of two down and you’re taking a seed’s spot.
No worries. One thing for sure I will not blow the pot. I will be betting as though it is my own money as I bet to make money not for fun. Some you win some you lose but I generally bet with as low risk as possible. Shazza could be champion tipster!!
Muzza, can’t wait to see how you go. But you can’t knock your nemesis for putting up Ledley to score first at 16-1.
Cheers for the tip on Ledley guys
John, gotta say Ledley was a great shout by Chris Guy. Pity he didn’t have any money to do him in the contest.
Milesey/Muzza…whats the tips today then??
Guido, Milesey put loads of tips last night.
Not a lot for me today Guido. Have had a double on BTTS on the premier league games but not looking good in the City v Chelsea at this stage……..zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Took Celtic -2 so hope It stays as it is
Don’t fancy any GG’s apart from
2:00 Naas UPSIE which just won at 4/7 and
5:00 Towcester VOLT FACE also 4/7
Good luck
Muzza did MC, Parma and Cardiff Trixie…away oot on bike now, might nip in bookies and see whats on later
Muzza, was cursing Lampard’s penalty miss but very happy Yaya Toure has scored first.
Looks like that miss is gonna cost me Mr F ……. But maybe not they are sending on Fernando “the goal machine” Torres…………!!!!!
Muzza, I backed City and Toure first and anytime but also have btts and Lampard to score so a bit of profit. Would have been perfect if he’d converted the pen though.
Well done Mr F. Chelsea have been dire!
Like your good self Paul I was enjoying a small libation last evening in the company of Sid Cider, Tommy Tennent and Wally Vod.. :-)
Unfortunately i didn’t go 1st goal but a win is a win
John well done with the anytime. I always back first too as its a good wee bonus.
Chris, I praised you for Ledley but again you’re comments are made to rile people and no need for them.
Knottsy comes forth with a sensible anecdote
Knottsy it was a simple response. Like Paul said, people being abusive and hating me, making horrible comments for no reason so yes the winners sickened the haters. Its not me giving a snidey dig, its merely me giving a response to the halfwits on the site who are abusive towards me for no apparent reason.
Shame you are out of the comp Chris you could have gone through with that bet…… ;0)
I’m a lover not a fighter…….. X
:-) Muzza produces a gem!!
Hate is a strong word Chris…I certainly don’t hate ya/don’t think anyone does either tbh.
Man up Chris ffs, nobody hates you. You’re such a sensitive wee soul.
I actually laughed and thought of you when I saw Ledley got the first goal. Ambrose last week and Ledley this week, well done! lol
People just find you extremely annoying at times Chris, that is all.
Well done to those who followed. Hope people got on. 16/1 and 6/1 far too big.
Chris, one thing I don’t understand. When you saw you were playing the tipster contest this week straight away you said there were two Celtic games and you fancied picking the first scorers. You correctly tipped Ambrose at 33-1 in midweek and Ledley 16-1 today but never backed either in the contest. Just wondered why not.
I dont remember paul saying that. I remember him threatening to throw you and others off the site. I remember him deleting yours and others comments for being abusive to each other. The smart arse comments doesnt help anything.
Knottsy yet again comes forth with a well reasoned statement. Well said Knottsy.
Well said to u too Guido. Chris thinks hes got haters? Hes just mildly annoying and delusional.
Life wid be dull without some of the quips and observations on this site Knottsy. :-) did u watch the boxing last night?? Big Audley eh??.. Anyway away oot on the bike…see if I can clear the heid from last nights over indulgence!
I know it wasnt Chris. Don’t take things to extreme tho…bitterness sucks the life oota people…chillax as they say, that’s the way to go…lot easier on the constitution :-)
Does that mean you get double now Ledley scored again?
You promised to keep that quiet Chris!!!
We are finished!! Biatch ;0)
Lol Muzza you were just a piece of meat for me. Muzza no worries about your bet, Celtic cruising.
John no bookies done double odds on the Celtic game today.
Put my rather small winnings on Russell to net anytime
John, he must have a chance. I’ve done OK with the scorers today thanks to Toure and Lambert and would have been three if Lampard had netted his pen.
Paul what you on about. Getting pissed off when you say my comments being made to role people up. It was merely a response. Correct me if I’m wrong but did you not say to someone there was no need for the comments directed towards me this morning as I had only put up my tips. I missed it all bit got the understanding that people were being abusive for no reason, hence the reason you chinned them. Also to answer your question I didn’t back them in the competition as rightly or wrongly as odds were poor with Ladbrokes and I tried to stick to bets where Ladbrokes were best odds
Chris, you know the comment I mean. It gets a reaction and I don’t see why they have to be made. Re the scorers it was mythical money so it didn’t matter what the odds were.
Paul, maybe send Chris to the naughty corner for the rest of the day and send him to bed with no supper for his insolence :-) :-)
No disrespect to Bradford fans…but that strip of theirs is God awful…horrendous in fact!! :-)
Let’s hope peter Coates is watching Michael laudraup pick up that trophy and get rid of the moron tony pullis completely out of his depth. Brendan Rogers must be gutted. Please please please Liverpool say you want pullis as your next manager!