GOALS seem to have been harder to find in recent weeks – let's hope the bookies respond by putting up prices that have been cut on this market for the best part of a year.
One team having no problem finding the net are Peterborough who rammed in five at Millwall in midweek. Darren Ferguson's side are off the bottom and looking up after four matches unbeaten.
One problem though is keeping clean sheets and while they have the firepower to worry a struggling Birmingham they are likely to concede having done so in nine of their last 10.
City failed to net in their last two games at home to Watford and Sheffield Wednesday but seem more relaxed on the road where they have netted in their last three.
Next up it's Bristol City v Barnsley. It's a much between two strugglers when you look at the table but both have improved since appointing new managers.
Barnsley have won six out of seven under David Flitcroft and their last four have seen both teams on target. City, under Sean O'Driscoll, have netted in five of their last six including goals away to promotion-chasing pair Cardiff and Crystal Palace in their last two outings.
I'm adding a third Championship game in Charlton v Nottingham Forest. Billy Davies extracted an amazing response from his players in his first match in charge with a 6-1 win against Huddersfield in midweek.
Forest head for Charlton with renewed confidence and you have to expect them to at least score. Five of Charlton's last six have seen both sides on target.
Next head for the Premier League and Reading v Wigan – two teams in trouble because they can't defend. And if they can't defend against each other there should be goals at either end.
Their three Premier League meetings have seen both score with a total of 13 goals while five of both sides' last six fixtures have brought up this market.
Finally go with Bournemouth v Sheffield Utd, a League One match between two on-form sides who'll both be going for victory.
Bournemouth's long unbeaten run was ended at Preston last week but Eddie Howe's men have netted 10 in their last four games so will be looking to get back on track.
The Blades look back to their best after a wobble and have notched three successive wins, scoring seven goals. They beat Bournemouth 5-3 at home earlier in the season and another eight-goal thriller would be welcome.
Peterborough v Birmingham
Bristol City v Barnsley
Charlton v Nottm Forest
Reading v Wigan
Bournemouth v Sheffield Utd
Perm any 4 and all 5 (6 bets)
Pays a biggest £137.60 to a £10 take at bet365
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
I dont usually agree 100% with you but that looks a topper Paul, Peterborough are always 1st on my list as they still remain the legends of this market.
Also remember its Friday and that can only mean…GOALS GOALS GOALS In the Dutch 2nd Div…lets hope I make it 3 out of 3 :-)
Stevie, I’ll be going for three or maybe four out of eight in the Eerste league and expect btts in five or six of them. Don’t know if I’ll have time for Friday tips though because I’ve got a 5pm deadline fro my Record column then working on the desk tonight. It would better if Friday lasted 26 hours.
Steve, whats your btts on for the dutch games today ?
Norwich-Everton
Bolton-Hull
Carlisle-MKDons
Morecambe-BristolRovers
Luton-Mansfield
Has anyone any thoughts on Macclesfield game tonight
Marco, Macclesfield should be a home but both sides are off form so not a great game to bet on.
Peterborough and Rochdale both teams are usually stick ons
arsenal v aston villa. west ham v tottenham. doncaster v yeovil. torquay v port vale.blackpool v leicester.both teams to score.
141.30 @ bet victor
As Mr Fixit hasn’t posted a thread for tonight’s football due to time constraints, I thought I would add my bets for tonight here.
BTTS 4 Fold Accumulator
Yes @ 2/5
Go Ahead Eagles v Helmond Sport
Yes @ 4/5
Auxerre v Guingamp
Yes @ 4/9
Excelsior v Dordrecht
Yes @ 2/5
Volendam v Sparta Rotterdam
4 fold accumulator on outright winner
MVV Maastricht @ 3/4
Almere v MVV Maastricht
Nimes @ 3/4
Nimes v Istres
Angers @ 3/4
Angers v Ajaccio GFCO
Macclesfield @ 8/11
Macclesfield v Gateshead
3-0 Gateshead after 20 minutes, what is going on?
Got greedy again, put Macclesfield on, all my other picks came in. I think I have to quit gambling now, I’m clearly awful at it :-)
Arsenal 1.34 v Aston Villa 11.0; The Draw 5.8
It’s difficult to say just which of these two teams will come into the game lower on confidence. Arsenal are now facing the reality of another trophyless season and the realistic possibility of missing out on a top four spot, while Villa remain entrenched in a relegation dog fight.
At least Paul Lambert’s side do come into this game on the back of a win after beating West Ham at Villa Park a fortnight ago.
The visitors have also avoided defeat at Arsenal on four of their last six Premier League trips to the Emirates (W2 D2 L2). It would take a brave man to part with his money in order to back a home win at odds as short as 1.34.
Christian Benteke has now scored in five successive appearances for Aston Villa in all competitions (six goals) and is a 4.0 chance to net this Saturday.
Norwich 4.0 v Everton 2.1; The Draw 3.55
Although there is not yet any great cause for concern in the Everton ranks, there must be a slight worry that their form has tapered off since the turn of the year. David Moyes will be hoping that their once customary slow start has not simply been transferred to a latter part of the campaign.
Having scored in 18 consecutive games, Everton have now failed to score in three of their last five league matches. The Toffees have used fewer players than any other Premier League side (22) this season, and maybe that is just starting to tell.
No side has drawn more Premier League games 0-0 this season than Norwich City (5), and that combined with Everton’s shortage of goals lately makes the 1.94 about Under 2.5 goals a standout bet.
QPR 7.8 v Man Utd 1.52; The Draw 4.5
Following a hectic schedule of late there’s every chance that Sir Alex Ferguson could use this game to further rest a number of his key players. Robin van Persie, Shinji Kagawa and Michael Carrick were all moved to the bench for the FA Cup clash with Reading last Monday, while Wayne Rooney and Patrice Evra didn’t even make the squad. It’s an important point worth considering before piling into United at appealing odds of 1.52.
However, QPR have taken just two points from 11 Barclays Premier League encounters with Manchester United and their last win against United came way back in 1992 on New Year’s Day. Regardless of the XI Ferguson selects, I wouldn’t want to be laying the visitors.
What may be worth a play is the 2.28 on there being fewer than 2.5 goals. There have only been 11 instances of a team scoring fewer than 19 goals in their opening 26 Premier League games (as QPR have done), while United weren’t too threatening without RVP on the pitch against Reading. If the Dutchman doesn’t start then there’ll certainly be some mileage in trading that 2.28 in-play.
Reading 2.7 v Wigan 2.94; The Draw 3.5
Relegation battle. Six-pointer. Do-or-die fixture. Choose your own cliché, but whichever way you look at this game… It. Is. Massive.
Although victory for either side may not be enough to even lift them out of the relegation zone, defeat would be little short of a footballing disaster. The draw looks the best bet in the Match Odds market, but there are better bets in relation to this fixture to be had elsewhere.
Wigan have conceded the first goal of the game in more matches than every other PL side this term (17), so 1.9 about Reading scoring first is worth a punt.
Seventy per cent of Wigan’s goals this season have come after the break, while a massive 42% of Reading’s goals have come in the closing 15 minutes this season. Back the 2nd Half to have the most goals at odds of 2.0.
West Brom 2.1 v Sunderland 4.0; The Draw 3.6
Sunderland have lost two games in a row for the fourth time in the league this season but are yet to lose three on the spin. And should they pick up where they left off against Arsenal a fortnight ago, then they should have no problems avoiding defeat at the Hawthorns.
The Baggies’ slightly fortuitous 2-0 win at Anfield two weeks ago was their first triumph in 10 matches in all competitions, while they’ve not kept successive clean sheets in the Premier League since April 2012.
Each of the last four top-flight matches between West Brom and Sunderland have gone over 3.5 goals, while only one of the last seven games between the Baggies and the Black Cats has gone under 2.5 goals and seven of Sunderland’s last eight Premier League away games have gone over 2.5 goals. According to the stats we should be piling into Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08.
Sunday, 1.30pm Kick Off
Newcastle 2.16 v Southampton 3.7; The Draw 3.6
Newcastle have won seven and lost none of their last eight Premier League home games against Southampton and have scored at least once in 11 of their 12 Premier League matches against the Saints at St James’.
However, Southampton have lost only once – against Manchester United at Old Trafford – since Mauricio Pochettino took charge and were mightily impressive 3-1 winners over Man City last time out. The Geordies look way too short at odds of 2.16 and can be taken on.
Recommended Bets
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.94 in Norwich v Everton
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08 in West Brom v Sunderland
Back 2nd Half to have most goals @ 2.0 in Reading v Wigan
Lay Newcastle to win @ 2.16
—————————————————–
Bournemouth 2.18 v Sheffield United 3.55, the draw 3.65
This looks easily the best game of the weekend in League One, with second taking on fourth and Sheffield United now recapturing their form. Will they be good enough to test Bournemouth and their superb home record? The layers are offering a fair price (on United), considering they’ve won their last three.
The Cherries suffered only their second defeat in 22 matches on Saturday, with a 2-0 loss to Preston. A game in which Bournemouth boss Eddie Howe offered no excuses. They were tired and were second best throughout. The goals were cheaply conceded too in a performance that midfielder Harry Arter described as ‘their worst’ under Howe.
The south coast club have some big clashes coming up against teams in and around them, but will be doing
so without Miles Addison (who has been ruled out for the season with injury) and Tommy Elphick. Injuries to a settled back line will give Howe a headache, as defensively they have only conceded 13 at the Goldsands all season.
stats reveal that Sheffield United have won seven successive games against the Cherries, and have recently hit top form. Saturday’s 3-0 win over Colchester was an emphatic display, and a victory that moved them back into the automatic places (at the time).
Defences will have a big say on this encounter, as the Blades have netted only 12 times in 16 games away from Yorkshire, whereas Bournemouth have the second best home defence in the division. The Blades have a lot of experience and nous in the team, and forward Dave Kitson is playing some of the best football of his career. He leads the line well, whilst the midfield ‘two’ are much more positive recently in a run of three wins in February.
I will expect Bournemouth to revert to a 4-4-2 and ditch the idea of Brett Pitman playing in a 4-5-1, and his quality in front of goal could be more potent than the visitors. The Cherries were held 1-1 earlier this term by Swindon, and that sort of tight game is something I anticipate here.
Recommended bets:
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.97
Back 1-1 @ 6.90
Scunthorpe United 2.02 v Hartlepool United 4.00, the draw 3.55
Hartlepool are finally off the bottom of the division, and a five match unbeaten run has given the north east club renewed hope of staying up. Credit to new manager John Hughes, who I must admit, I knew very little about. But he has got them fighting since he took over in December, and they have also won three of their last five matches in that unbeaten run.
Saturday’s 2-1 victory against Orient was a joy for the Pools fans, but a goal with the very last kick of the game cost this column the 1-1 bet at 7.0. This cruel blow from lady luck has not been the first in the dying embers of matches in these parts. I totted up this season’s narrow misses on the correct scoreline front ( I am not bitter honest) and I wasn’t surprised – it’s happened 10 times – with five stoppage time strikes. See I told you I was not bitter.
Pools are playing some of their relegation rivals coming up and they have a bit of momentum. However, the stat I am most interested in from Opta states that Hartlepool are the league’s lowest scorers (with 28), even though they have netted in six of their last seven games. Before the late show against Orient, they never really looked like scoring.
Scunthorpe meanwhile have had a great February, winning three times at Glandford Park with victories against Carlisle, Crawley and Portsmouth. Opta tell us that the Iron’s Akpo Sodje has hit four goals in his last three on home soil – a forward I always felt needed a few chances.
Four of Scunthorpe’s last five matches have been over 2.5 goals, including that end-to-end 3-1 win over Carlisle. However, with the positions of both teams, I anticipate a slightly tighter game, with Hartlepool relying on the big physical presence of Steve Howard up front.
The draw seems most attractive, which can once again bring into play the much underrated HT market, whilst 0-0 to trade and 1-1 look the most appealing, unless of course someone pops up on 95 minutes again.
Recommended bets:
Back under 2.5 goals@ 2.0
Back the draw @ 3.65
Doncaster Rovers 2.39 v Yeovil Town 3.20, the draw 3.45
This week’s trip to Yeovil corner again sees the layers taking a big chance on offering 3.20 for a team that have won eight on the spin. This is the form outfit in the division by some way, and their price has been wrong over the last two weeks. Even better for us Yeovil backers is that Doncaster are out of form.
Back to the Huish Park men, who have run riot this month. They have hit 10 goals in February, won three and conceded just the one (against Preston). Paddy Madden has netted 10 from his last seven, and Yeovil have moved into the play-off places. With goals from midfield and a settled side, they look too big in price again. Opta highlight the remarkable run of Madden, the league’s top scorer – scoring in every one of their last eight matches.
They also have had two days extra rest and preparation as Doncaster played on Monday.
Since Dean Saunders left for Wolves, the recent run of Rovers is not exactly promotion chasing stuff. They have won only once from their last five games, and new boss Brian Flynn has suggested missing one or two key elements in their play. They have had injuries to deal with, but their key players missing recently has highlighted a thin squad.
They are very physical, and are one of the biggest teams in the division (ironic as Flynn is one of the shortest managers). They showed their muscle at the start of the week against Crawley in the 1-1 draw, in a fairly physical encounter. Rovers were outplayed and were lucky with a point, and it’s a good time to be against them this weekend.
Yeovil were blistering in the second-half last weekend against Scunthorpe, and their high energy midfield can win this match for them.
Recommended bets:
Lay Doncaster @ 2.39
Back Yeovil to win 0-1 @ 11.0 and 0-2 @ 21.0
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.89
——————————————————–
Dagenham 1.95 v AFC Wimbledon 4.3; The draw 3.65
Alan Bennett was inconsolable after losing in the play-off final as Cheltenham captain last season, because he hates losing. So it will not take long for him to whip AFC Wimbledon’s defence into shape. Indeed, they are now down to conceding just one goal a game, if their last two matches are the new standard. Bennett has played four times and, for the last one – in which he scored – was appointed captain, a role he held for his entire time with the Robins, before Mark Yates decided to go “in a different direction” and suddenly jettison the centre-back from his plans.
Only two defeats in eight games – half of them draws – gives them a better shout of victory at Dagenham than 4.3 suggests, because Dagenham have lost seven from the last 11 matches. Odds-on does not seem right. The visitors also have more urgency, as they are bottom of the Football League. Opta report that Jack Midson has scored in his last two games against Dagenham, who have not beaten the Dons in their three Football League meetings.
There will be those who lay John Still’s hosts. But when Bennett talks of the Dons now being “proactive not reactive” during matches, it sounds like he could write scripts even greater than his playwright namesake.
Recommended Bet
Back AFC Wimbledon to beat Dagenham @ 4.3
Oxford 2.16 v York 3.65; The Draw 3.5
Had this match taken place during Oxford’s December/early January form, they would have been odds-on. That makes them value, now, if we can trust that they have turned a corner after a narrow victory at Plymouth and James Constable finding the net for the 11th time this season. It was his first in five matches, but he has tended to score in groups of games this season.
Victory broke a winless run of five. Constable is full of confidence. He says he and strike partner Tom Craddock are each aiming for 20 each this season. Injuries have prevented Chris Wilder’s men front reaching their full potential this season. And while a play-off push looks out of reach, serious attempts at making up the 10-point deficit in 14 games remaining really must start now. They face Gillingham, Port Vale and Rotherham next.
York are fully opposable. They have drawn four of an eight-game winless run and will be looking nervously down as those below them bunch up. In their last six away games, they have scored just twice, picking up three points.
Recommended Bet
Back Oxford @ 2.16
Barnet 2.7 v Rochdale 2.76; Draw 3.45
Despite Rochdale overcoming a poor run with a first victory in seven games, I don’t see it being a potential turning point for Keith Hill, for whom it was a first victory after returning as manager. Certainly not when their next opponents are a Barnet side on a generally upward curve (slow burning at times) since Edgar Davids has been at Underhill.
As Opta point out, the Bees are enjoying their best form of the season, winning five of their last 10. The stats men add that Barnet have scored 66% of goals in the second half of games and Rochdale have conceded 55% in second halves. So draw/Barnet tempts in the half-time/full-time market at 7.0 but I’ll stick with a good price on the hosts.
Recommended Bet
Back Barnet @ 2.7
Torquay 3.65 v Port Vale 2.12; The Draw 3.6
For reasons all Alan Knill, I want to be on Torquay. I was an admirer when he was boss of Bury, for the style of play and close-knit, small squad. Knill, standing in for the ill Martin Ling, is to some extent guided by assistant manager Shaun Taylor. But surely having watched the Gulls lose at equally poor Aldershot on Tuesday, he must have his own ideas on how to improve a record of just two goals from open play in the last eight games.
The board clearly hope Knill, who forged contacts with Manchester United at Bury, can bring in loan players. Let’s hope they back that up with funds. What gives them hope here is Port Vale’s penchant for a bad result now and then. Failing to beat Barnet and Morecambe in their last two games, plus the incentive of showing a new boss they don’t need to be replaced by loanees, must give Torquay incentive. I’ll be laying the visitors, covering the draw.
Recommended Bet
Lay Port Vale @ 2.12
Milesey
PRIZE FIGHTER
————–
The Betfair Prizefighter series is back this weekend, and it’s the turn of the International Heavyweights. Alex Steedman casts a glove across the line up, which is headed by a certain Audley Harrison.
If you’re a fighter seeking redemption, who you gonna call? If you’re a young buck on the make, who can you call? If you need a few quid for your old kit bag, who will you call? Prizefighter. So the story has regularly run on the popular Sky Sports show with some surprise names answering the call this weekend.
The line-up for the latest Heavyweight Prizefighter may look like a re-run of Dad’s Army with Audley Harrison the star name among a field of thirty to forty-somethings but it is laced with storylines again. And a bit like Silas, the self-flagellating Monk in The Da Vinci Code, I feel strangely drawn to the idea of Harrison 7.0 pulling one last rabbit out the hat. Yes I do. Really? Hmmm.
Fair or not, most boxing fans gave up on Harrison some time ago and everyone else followed after his defeat to David Haye in 2010. Harrison lasted only ten minutes that night, less time than it had taken him to convince some that he had a chance. David Price didn’t give him that hope last October when he brutalized him inside 100 seconds. If Harrison was considered gun-shy before, how will he behave on the back of such a beating? He also happens to be the named target coming into this too.
Certainly this is a different line-up to the one Harrison outclassed when winning Prizefighter back in 2009. A-Force enjoyed two stoppage victories that night at York Hall and though he enjoyed a charmed draw against rookies, there are no bone-chillers here. Old rival Martin Rogan, who hassled Harrison out of a decision over ten rounds previously, won the inaugural Prizefighter nearly five years ago. He has the style to prevail at this format though the jury is out on where he is at.
Rogan 5.0 turns 42 in May and has fought just twice in two and a half years. His recent, four-round warm-up against a journeyman was workmanlike and inconclusive but Rogan is a warrior and has the best attitude of anyone in the competition.
This International version of Prizefighter has proved lucrative for the travelling boxers with Irish based Cuban Mike Perez and more recently Tor Hamer winning both events. Americans Travis Walker 3.5 or Derric Rossy 26.0 are most likely to continue the trend. Walker has been found wanting against the better heavies Chris Arreola, Johnathon Banks and Tomas Adamek but he’s not exactly swimming with sharks here. Walker had Adamek down and stunned early in their September fight (remember Adamek was world champion at Cruiserweight and went 10 rounds with Vitali Klitschko) and with 31 KO’s from 39 wins, he can punch. No doubt Walker has his own vulnerabilities but he’ll feel like he’s back in the baby pool here.
Rossy has a similar resume having lost twice to Eddie Chambers (went some rounds with Klitschko and Povetkin) but proving good enough to beat the also-rans. Rossy should be fit having fought two weeks ago but he has lost three of his last four and was a very late call-up.
Prizefighter has always been a potential platform for unknown or hidden talents and Briton’s Ian Lewison 4.7 is the novice in the pack. At 31, Lewison has only had nine fights, losing just once and while I haven’t seen much of him, that defeat to Colin Kenna raises questions about levels. Kenna may have had too much experience for Lewison but he himself has been stopped by domestic level fighters Sam Sexton and Germany’s Edmund Gerber. Lewison would have to improve significantly on that form even in a tournament of doubts and I think he’s priced up on the shortcomings of others.
Still, it’s a few levels above the French Prizefighter in which Claus Bertino 34.0 was beaten in the opening bout. That event was neck deep in European journeymen so the Dane is probably a million.
Albert Sosnowski 6.0 reached the semi-finals in the event won by Hamer and it’s not that long ago he was losing respectfully in European title fights but there is the feeling, even at 33, that he is nearing the end of his career. Sosnowski will at least have a go while 38 year old Timo Hoffman 34.0 is durable. He went the distance with Vitali but that was nearly 13 years ago and he has lost more recently to the remnants of Holyfield and Botha so he’s pretty much gone.
Prizefighter though is very much here to stay and this renewal could provide one of the strangest sporting stories of the year. I’ve grown weary of Audley Harrison like many others but his treatment by the mob that night in Liverpool was simply too much. It reminded me of ‘Gladiator’ and the power of the Coliseum crowd. Audley lost that crowd some time ago and winning Prizefighter won’t secure their grace again but it might just help a little, if not restoring Harrison some peace. My fingers are crossed, though the punting trigger finger is aimed at Walker.
Recommended Bet
Back Travis Walker to win at 3.5
Milesey
Milesey, it’s our contest, what’s the point in digging it up?
Lumped on this BTS treble last night, £200 returns £1000
READING V WIGAN
BRISTOL CITY V BARNSLEY
BRENTFORD V WALSALL
Btts bets today
Norwich/everton
Reading/wigan
Bristol city/barnsley
Charlton/notts forest
Peterboro/birmingham
Paddy power will return all losing bets on btts for the premiership/npower championship
If only one leg lets you down