NFL Picks: Eagles @ Packers – Davante Adams can Pack a Punch

I'M glad I avoided the Monday night game, wasn't one that I was confident on in the slightest so gave it a miss.

Such is my opinion on Trubisky I probably would have advised the unders so I'm glad I stayed away as apparently the Redskins defense is so bad even he can throw for over 200 yards on them. (That's like 400 yards in real QB terms)

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ Green Bay Packers: total – 47

Tonight should be a very good game though. I had the Eagles as a potential Superbowl team in pre-season and while they sit at 1-2 they've lost by 3 and 4 points in their losses so far and had a chance at the end of Sundays game to snatch a win. They haven't been awful by any stretch but are already beaten up and downfield threat Desean Jackson misses out again tonight.

They should get Alshon Jeffery back though which helps. Nelson Agholor filled in pretty well in his absence in fairness but is liable to silly mistakes at least once a week. I believe that Mack Hollins will be the big play threat for them as WR3 tonight, he looked better than JJ Arcega-Whiteside on Sunday. Their backfield is a 3-headed monster and tough to call although I like Sanders there.

The Packers offense is yet to really get going but they have played 3 of the better defenses in the league so far, so this could be just what they need to kick into the gear.

Aaron Rodgers highest passing yards so far is a measly 235. He only had that few 3 times in the whole of last year so you've got to think he'll regress towards the mean tonight against a beaten-up Eagles secondary.

His favourite target should be Davante Adams who led the league in redzone targets last season but only has 2 this year, with no touchdowns so far. As they say the squeaky wheel gets the grease and Rodgers said he needs to get the ball to him more so I think he'll get into the endzone tonight. WR2 there is Marques Valdez-Scantling who has done well with his targets and got a long TD at the weekend. Geronimo Allison stinks.

Their running game is muddled too as head coach Matt LeFleur seems intent on playing both his RBs during games despite the eye test saying the Aaron ‘the welshman' Jones looking better most of the time. Jamaal Williams actually out-snapped and out-carried him last week which is frustrating to all. Williams is also the better pass-catcher, however Jones did get 2 TDs from close in.

I think the Packers win. They're at home on a short week and that is always an advantage for the home team. I'd lean over on the total too but the Packers have been an unders team this year with their suddenly brilliant defense.

There's some decent prices on Eagles players to score, but the GB defense looks really good this year so I'm a little put off of Hollins 6/1, Goedert 13/2 and JJAW 10/1

Recommended Bets

• Packers -3 on the 1st half spread – 10/11 (Bet365)
• Davante Adams anytime – 1/1 (William Hill)

Good Luck if you're on anything tonight

Adam (@TouchdownTips)

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