THERE'S a few likely looking opportunities for goal-mongers on the prowl tonight but I'm avoiding the more likely options in favour of an Icelandic acca and a potential Peruvian cracker.
DEPORTIVO BINACIONAL vs UNIVERSIDAD SAN MARTÍN (9.30pm)
Peru may not be my South American destination of choice when it comes to football betting but I keep my eye on ita various leagues and divisions as I do most others and it does throw up some good value from time to time.
There's a match that fits the bill for value tonight and it involves a side who've been quietly going about their business in recent weeks having put a few bigger and certainly more historically established sides to the sword along the way!
Binacional's story is a great one; less than a decade old and formed in the Peruvian/Bolivian border regions (hence “bi-national”), they have moved swiftly through the amateur ranks while also moving grounds a few times along the way!
It's a short but rich story and it looks like theirs may also be one of success in years to come. A decent 2018 campaign saw them qualify for the Copa Sudamericana while they head into tonight's match against lowly San Martin on the back of six straight home victories.
Their visitors this evening may need more than just a Saint's prayer to escape unscathed here with those most recent Binacional six home wins comprising 4-4-3-1-3-2 team goals for the hosts while San Martin have leaked at least 2 goals away from home in 12 of their last 16 matches on the road.
I'm taking on two selections that look to represent decent value for a side that could be the next Wilstermann or Cerro in terms of underpriced and under the radar South American sides.
Recommended Bets
- Binacional over 2.5 team goals
- (11/8, bet365) – 4pts
- Binacional over 3.5 team goals
- (7/2, bet365) – 1pt
All 6 Icelandic Cup games (and the U19 fixture) went over 2.5 goals on Thursday with 6 of the 7 seeing four or more goals.
Five more instalments on Friday with differing KOss and despite slightly more evenly-matched games, there’s not much that indicates any of the games won’t see at least 3.
AUGNABLIK (3pm)
IH (7pm)
KB (8pm)
ULFARNIR (8pm)
MIDAS (9pm)
- Over 2.5 match goals fiveold
(5-2, bet365) – 2pts
Born and bred in Bury but now exiled to Hull: long-suffering Shakers supporter and member of Mr. Fixit's site since 2013. Football mad with a depth and breadth of knowledge including specific focus on South American football, the Icelandic Leagues and English Lower League football.
Hey mate, just looked at B365 and Augnablik game seems to be on tomorrow, not today. Is that right?
Cheers. Pete
Hi Pete – yeah, looks like it is now but was originally up for today. Best of luck mate!
Cheers Hull fella…love the Icelandic matches for goals, so will be all over this. Thanks for posting, you always do a grand job.
Cheers but March was another poor month after February and been a long time since I’ve had back to back monthly losses so April has simply got to be better!
Not had the free time until today to post March figures but have looked through and here they are with a rundown of success rate versus size of stake:
+/- = -27.37 Points
Hit rate per stake size:
5 Points = 2/4 (50%)
4 Points = 4/6 (67%)
3 Points = 11/25 (44%)
2 Points = 6/20 (30%)
1 Points = 5/29 (17%)
Really the only conclusion that matters is that it was a crap month – yes, it could have been oh so different with some big accas/betbuilders of 20’s/1 – 45/1 coming inches away from landing and plenty of higher stake bets rebounding off the crossbar but it is what it is and transparency is key.
For what it’s worth, my ‘5 pointers’ broke even whilst my ‘4 pointers’ continue to be the ones with the highest yield although not as high as their 100% strike rate the previous month.
As every single one of my old school reports reads: “must try harder” and that’s exactly what I intend to do.
Absolutely outstanding tipping sir. Binacional looked like scoring every time they went forward.
Great shout.
Just got on a cheeky inplay Binacional to score the 5th goal at evens 😎
Cheers @stesmi – glad you made a few dubloons pal 🇵🇪⚽️🇵🇪⚽️🇵🇪⚽️🇵🇪⚽️🇵🇪⚽️🇵🇪