Tennis Tips: Day 6 at Wimbledon

IT was an unnecessary roller coaster of a match that got me a win for my headline pick of Friday when Adrian Mannarino, in typical Mannarino style, ended up going the distance against Daniil Medvedev.

Mannarino was in total control of the match following a slow start and having won the opening two sets, a 3-0 win looked likely, but this is Mannarino, and he allowed Medvedev back in for so long that the Russian led by a break in the fifth before Mannarino woke up just in time.

There was no joy in the second bet of the day when John Isner somehow took all four of the break points he created in an unusually clinical display of returning against Radu Albot.

Combined with Isner again hitting over 80% of his first serves in play it became a tough ask for Albot.

Conditions

The heat wave continues in London on Saturday when the mercury reaches 30C and we’re expecting no rain and no more than an average wind speed of around 13kph on day six at the All England Club.

Juan Martin Del Potro vs Benoit Paire

Delpo looked in fine form in his win over Feli Lopez in the last round, but as Marin Cilic showed on Thursday, that doesn’t necessarily mean that’ll continue in the next match, and he looks very short in price for this one.

Paire’s injury problem with his knee is well known, but it didn’t bother him at all in his win over Denis Shapovalov and the layers seem to be of the opinion that this will be a stroll for an in-form Delpo versus an injured Paire.

They might be right, but 1.14 on Delpo seems too short given that Paire has shown very good form on the grass this swing and he said after the Shapovalov match:

“I have zero pain. I had two very difficult days, and today I woke up feeling on top. I know I have this crack [in the meniscus] and I have to be careful. But for now it's good and I knew I was going to defend my chances 100%.”

What interests me here, as well as Paire coming within a point on his own serve of beating Federer in Halle, is how much more often the flaky Frenchman holds serve on grass compared to other surfaces.

In his last 10 matches on grass he’s held 85.4% of the time and in his career at Wimbledon he’s held 82.5% of the time, while on hard and clay he holds only 73-74% of the time.

He also breaks around 20% of the time on grass, so on those stats we shouldn’t count Paire out – certainly if he’s serving as well as he has been of late.

It’s clearly a bit of a gamble if that knee issue crops up again, but having beaten Delpo impressively on clay in their only career clash, which admittedly was years ago, he won’t fear the Argentine.

I’m not going to back Paire to win it, but the +2.5 sets at 1.81 or the over 3.5 sets at 1.94 look the wagers of interest here.

Nick Kyrgios vs Kei Nishikori

Another big name that looks very short in price is Kyrgios, who’s lost all three of his career clashes with Nishikori, and while he too impressed in the last round I’m not sure he should be as short as 1.36 for this one.

I was happy to take the price on Bernard Tomic against Nishikori in the last round, but Bernie wasn’t up to it physically, though he very nearly took a 2-1 lead, but at these prices Nishikori in some way or other looks the bet.

The Japanese star certainly hasn’t been at his best this grass swing by any means and I seriously doubt that it’s ever likely to be a great surface for him, but his returning skills make him a tough opponent for Kyrgios.

Nishikori is 40-20 win/loss versus the big servers in my database and only once in his last 17 completed matches against them has Nishikori failed to win at least one set.

While the Kyrgios/Nishikori head-to-head is from between two and two-and-a-half years ago (before Kei’s wrist injury) it’s still relevant that Kyrgios only broke Nishi’s serve three times in seven sets.

That lack of ability to break serve often enough is what lets NK down and in his 38 main level matches against players I have down as ‘top-10 quality’ in my database he’s broken only 10.9% of the time on all surfaces, while Nishikori has broken the same players 18.7% of the time.

Nishikori isn’t playing top-10 tennis at the moment, hence the price on Kyrgios today, but he is scrapping and playing and returning well enough to cover the handicap here.

Kyrgios has won only one of his last 10 matches against top-30 ranked opponents in straight sets and that was versus Fabio Fognini on a hard court in Miami and he actually has a slight losing record versus top-30 opposition (41-42) in his career and a poor one in majors (7-14 in Grand Slams).

Elsewhere, reports from the practice courts tell of Novak Djokovic not showing up for his booked slot on Court 5 and that certainly suggests that his knee problem might be more serious than he’s letting on.

It could be another reason entirely, of course, but he said on Thursday after the Zeballos match: “It seems like it’s nothing major. Hopefully, you know, tomorrow I’ll see on the practice session how it feels.”

Seemingly, that didn’t happen and it makes his clash with Kyle Edmund a tough one to be betting on.

I was going to suggest the 3-1 set betting score to the Serb in that one, but I think I’ll pass, with Novak’s condition unknown.

I did toy with the idea of backing Jiri Vesely as underdog against Fabio Fognini, but the Italian was a comfortable winner when this pair clashed here at Wimbledon a year ago.

Added to that is the notion (albeit my own conspiracy theory) that Fognini loves the opportunity of taking on Nadal (who he’d probably meet next) and so the chances of him producing one of his no-shows are less likely.

Fabio has broken serve 28.7% of the time on grass in his last 10 matches on this surface and Vesely created just the one break point chance in last year’s match against Vesely (didn’t take it), so beyond the serve it’s hard to see the Czech outplaying the Italian.

Matthew Ebden has won both of his career matches against Gilles Simon as a big underdog (one this year on slow outdoor hard in Miami and the other on much quicker outdoor hard in Shanghai back in 2011).

Now the Aussie is a 1.74 favourite to win their first clash on grass and that looks too short for me, despite Ebden’s superb grass court stats over the past 12 months in which he’s held serve 87.7% of the time and broken at a rate of 27.1%.

Some of the opposition hasn’t been brilliant in those 14 matches, but Federer, Goffin, Muller and Kohlschreiber have all been faced, so I can see why he’s favourite here.

Ebden’s record at Wimbledon hasn’t been good until this year when he’s arrived with loads of confidence and carried on the form he showed in Rosmalen and Halle, but Simon’s still a tough man to get the better of when he’s playing well and this one could well go long.

The other one that looks like it may well hold an opportunity is the clash between Ernests Gulbis and Alexander Zverev, with the German regularly being made to go long at this level to get the win.

Zverev has only won nine of 32 Grand Slam matches he’s contested in straight sets and most of those have been against weak opposition at this level: Ricardas Berankis (on clay), James Duckworth (who’s been injured for a long time), Darian King (should have dropped a set to him too), Thomas Fabbiano, Sebastian Ofner, Evgeny Donskoy, and Paul-Henri Mathieu (on grass).

The other two straight sets wins came versus Frances Tiafoe and the up and down Gulbis has every chance of at least taking a set if you’re having a bet in that match.

Fellow Aussie, Alex De Minaur, has also had a good spell on the grass this summer, but I’d doubt that he has the weapons to outlast Rafael Nadal over the best of five sets – even on grass.

By and large the players that have beaten Nadal here have been those with big weapons in either the serve or big groundstrokes or both and De Minaur wins his matches on athletic ability and being hard to get the ball past.

It’s tough to see that being enough to beat Nadal over the best of five at a major and a Rafa win looks very likely there.

Best Bets

• 1 point win over 3.5 sets in Paire v Del Potro (1.94, Unibet)
• 1 point win Nishikori +3.5 games to beat Kyrgios (2.12, Unibet)

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