Tennis Tips: US Open day two bets

ROUND one of the men’s singles completes (weather permitting) at the 2017 US Open on Tuesday, with another 32 matches on the card at Flushing Meadows. 

We got off to a good start on day one with our wagers when there was no tie-break in Kyle Edmund’s 3-0 win over Robin Haase, which landed us a 2.75 winner, but there was element of farce about bet two.

John Isner and Pierre-Hugues Herbert’s match was taken off court at 1-2, *40-40 when a spectator was taken ill in the stands and when they eventually returned Isner promptly broke then won the next three games as well to record a highly unlikely 6-1 opening set score (only his third 6-1 opening set win in three years).

One of our two underdogs won though, with Jordan Thompson beating Jack Sock as a 3.20 chance, while Alessandro Giannessi cramped towards the end of his clash with Ernests Gulbis and just failed to take it to a fifth set.

If the weather forecast for Tuesday is correct we could be set for a frustrating day on the outside courts, with showers forecast for most of the afternoon and evening.

That won’t bother Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, who are both scheduled for Arthur Ashe Stadium, which has a roof, but the roof on the new Louis Armstrong Stadium won’t be ready until next year and this year’s Armstrong is a temporary court on the old parking lot.

Maximilian Marterer vs Donald Young

The young German’s terrible record at main level thus far may have given us an opportunity to back him at a decent price of around 2.60 in this opening match of the day out on Court 12.

Hopefully the forecast rain won’t have started by then and this match looks tough for Young, whose record against fellow lefties doesn’t stand up to much scrutiny.

Young has lost 13 of his last 17 matches against left-handers on all surfaces and seven of his last 11 on hard courts, so there’s vulnerability there for sure.

And this could be the perfect time for Marterer to get off the mark at main level and land that maiden win in his first ever match in the main draw of a Grand Slam.

His 0-13 record at main level doesn’t really do him justice, as he has been very competitive in the last few, either forcing tiebreaks or taking sets in five of his last seven.

I’ve certainly seen improvement in him of late and beating Hamburg champion Leonardo Mayer in qualies here should be a big confidence boost, while drawing Young in round one is hardly a daunting prospect.

The Don continues to be as hit and miss as ever, with a very average 96.0 hold/break total on outdoor hard over the past 12 months and a 10-12 record at the US Open.

Both of these guys play with plenty of emotion and it could be a fun watch, with Marterer having a good chance to continue Young’s struggles against lefties.

And that’s about it for today’s shortlist, with the others no more than tentative picks, and they would include Steve Darcis as underdog against Guido Pella, Blaz Kavcic also as underdog against Mikhail Youzhnyand Malek Jaziri to beat Thiago Monteiro.

Darcis’ hold/break stats are a good 10% better than Pella’s, but the Belgian’s injury record is shocking and he did lose to Pella over five on hard at the Australian Open last season.

Youzhny doesn’t appear to have much left these days and all three of his wins over Kavcic were in deciding sets. I wouldn’t trust the Russian as favourite to make it four in his state of decline.

Jaziri has been in pretty poor form of late, but his stats on outdoor hard are far better than those of Monteiro, whose only win in nine matches on this surface at main level came in that highly questionable clash with Alexandr Dolgopolov last week.

Elsewhere, the last time Leo Mayer came in as a lucky loser he went on to with the tournament in Hamburg and I wouldn’t put it past him beating Richard Gasquet, whose back seems to be a constant problem for him these days.

Juan Martin Del Potro has also seen his career severely hampered by injury and I’m a bit tempted to go over 30.5 games in his match against Henri Laaksonen today. Delpo should win it, but he can’t be trusted to win easily at prices like 1.04 at this stage of his career.

Conditions are reportedly slower and higher bouncing on Ashe this year, which should be music to the ears of Rafa Nadal, who should have few real problems against Dusan Lajovic today, but Roger Federer might be tested for a while by the attacking game of Frances Tiafoe.

When Tiafoe puts it all together he can be trouble for even the best, as (an admittedly fatigued) Alexander Zverev found out in Cincy and with Federer last seen on court with a back injury the 3.55 on Tiafoe +2.5 sets is interesting.

Viktor Troicki has been in desperate form, but I’m not sure I trust Norbert Gombos to beat him, and at these prices I’d probably be inclined to side with the Serb.

Tomas Berdych has a tricky opener against Ryan Harrison and the 3-1 to the Czech in set betting is not a bad wager at 3.70, with only around 5% between the pair in their hold/break stats on outdoor hard this past 12 months at main level.

Gael Monfils looks an accident waiting to happen, based on recent form and heath at 1.14, but Jeremy Chardy hasn’t played competitively since July 4 due to a foot injury.

There are some good value prices around today for ‘no tiebreak’ backers, with 2.38 available in the Kavcic/Youzhny clash. The pair have played zero in their 11 sets against each other and Youzhny has played zero breakers in his last 24 completed sets at main level on outdoor hard.

Others that represent decent value for that bet today are the matches involving Gasquet, Troicki, Darcis, and Aljaz Bedene.

But overall it looks a day to be a little cautious and I’m only taking on two bets on day two.

Sean's Day 2 Bets

• 1 point win Marterer to beat Young – 2.60 Unibet
• 1 point win no tiebreaks in Kavcic/Youzhny – 2.38 Unibet

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