It’s a strong EFL weekend with three standout fixtures for goals and value. Swindon vs Colchester in League Two looks the most open game of the round, with both sides attacking freely and defending loosely.
Swindon’s matches average over three goals per game, while Colchester have scored 13 in their last four, so another high total looks likely.
In the Championship, Coventry host Watford in a fixture that points to a dominant home win. Coventry lead the league for xG and xPTS and have scored two or more in six of their last eight, while Watford’s away record is poor defensively.
Hull’s clash with Charlton in League One also looks set for goals at both ends. Hull’s home games average over three goals and Charlton’s away data shows a similar pattern. Across all three divisions, the numbers align for another weekend where goals should flow.
Swindon Town vs Colchester Utd
Swindon and Colchester meet on Saturday in what looks the most likely high-scoring match of the League Two weekend. Both teams play open, front-foot football, and the recent data for each points strongly towards goals at both ends.
Swindon’s matches have averaged 3.3 goals per game this season, the highest in the division alongside Notts County. Ten of their 13 league games have finished over 2.5, including seven of their last nine. They attack with pace and numbers, producing 1.63 xG per game and ranking top six for shots in the box. At the other end, their defensive record keeps games alive as they have conceded in ten of 13 and kept only one clean sheet at home.
Colchester’s form has exploded in recent weeks. Over their last four league matches they have scored 13 goals, winning three and climbing rapidly up the xPTS table. Their attacking process is the best in the league right now, averaging 3.18 xG across that stretch with at least 2.3 xG created in three of those four games. The goals have come freely, with 21 total scored in that run (13 for, eight against) and every match clearing the over 2.5 line comfortably.
Across the season, Colchester rank first for both teams to score (77%) whilst 33% away games have gone over 2.5. They have scored in 11 of those 13, but kept just one clean sheet, so their matches rarely settle quietly.
With Swindon’s attacking tempo at the County Ground and Colchester’s surge in chance creation, the data all points the same way. Both teams rank among the league’s top five for xG ratio over the last month, and neither has shown signs of shutting up shop. Everything suggests another open, high-tempo game that should comfortably deliver over 2.5 goals.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 7/10 at Coral
Coventry City vs Watford
Coventry City host Watford at the CBS Arena on Saturday, and everything in the data points to a strong home win in a game that should see at least a couple of goals. Coventry are operating at a level far above the rest of the division right now, ranking first in the Championship for xG, xPTS and big-chance creation both home and away. Their attacking process is relentless. Across their last eight matches they have averaged 2.73 xG per game and scored two or more goals in six of those. At home, their numbers are even more convincing. They generate 2.46 xG per match at the CBS, take 10.6 shots in the box, and average 5.6 shots on target which are all league-leading figures.
Watford’s away profile makes the case for goals even stronger. They concede 1.38 xG per game on the road and face an average of 4.0 shots on target, with opponents creating regular high-quality chances inside their box. Their have failed to win any of their five away games and conceded in all of them. While Watford can threaten in spells, they simply give up too much territory and too many clear openings to resist a Coventry side playing with this level of control and confidence.
Under Frank Lampard Coventry have a home record of W14-D4-L3 scoring an average of 1.90 goals and have only failed to score twice at the CBS. They combine sustained pressure with quick transitions, creating a constant stream of chances from open play and set pieces. With Brandon Thomas-Asante, Haji Wright and Victor Torp in excellent form and the midfield dictating tempo, it is hard to see Watford keeping them quiet. Coventry to win and over 1.5 goals looks the logical way to side with the league’s best underlying team while keeping the price playable.
- Best bet: Coventry win and over 1.5 goals at 3/4 with Coral
Hull City vs Charlton Athletic
Hull City and Charlton Athletic meet at the MKM Stadium on Saturday in a fixture that looks well set up for both teams to score. The data from both sides points in the same direction, with attacking intent and defensive vulnerability combining to make this one of the stronger both teams to score candidates of the weekend.
Hull’s matches have been consistently open. They rank inside the league’s top five for total xG per game, with their home fixtures averaging 3.18 xG and 3.3 total goals. They attack with width and numbers, creating an average of 7.0 shots in the box and allowing 8.3 at the other end. That balance has produced high-event football all season, with Hull scoring in nine of their last ten league games but keeping only two clean sheets this season. They have the tools to score at home through Ollie McBurnie who has six goals and three assists from his 10 matches this season whilst Ryan Giles has already racked up six assists.
Charlton’s away data supports the same angle. They average 1.20 xG for and 1.28 xG against, trading chances rather than controlling matches. Their away games are producing 2.48 xG per game and have seen both teams to score land in two of their last four. They take 3.3 shots on target per away match, a healthy number for a mid-table side, and their shot map shows a high share of efforts coming from central areas inside the box. That should translate into chances against a Hull defence that regularly allows opposition entries into dangerous zones.
Both teams have scored in 67% of Hull’s home games and 33% of Charlton’s away games, but they have scored in four of their six away days. This fits with their underlying xG and shot patterns. With both sides capable of creating and conceding in equal measure, this looks a strong candidate for both teams to score to land again at the MKM Stadium.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 4/5 with Betfred
Further Reading
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