Nov 5: Johnb’s Racing Tips & Chat

Racing_WilliamHill

JOHNB hopes for a sweet run from Burnt Sugar today to land a 50-1 eachway punt.

Our man is also advising double stakes on his joint Nap/NB as he bids to reduce his 9.5pt loss for the month.

Johnb’s Saturday Tips

Doncaster 2:25
Burnt Sugar 50-1 eachway bet365

Down Royal 3:05
Le Mercurey 3-1 NAP/NB bet365(double stake)

0.5pt eachway double 203-1 bet365

 

Antepost Tips

1000 Guineas 2017

PROMISE TO BE TRUE 20-1 betfred

2000 Guineas 2017

CHURCHILL 20-1 (now 8-1) bet365

2017 Derby

CHURCHILL 33-1 (now 20-1) racebets

2000 Guineas 2017

BLUE POINT 14-1 racebets

Johnb says: “I have already advised Churchill for next year’s 2000 Guineas & Derby – he has been really impressive this season and my view is he will get even better next year.

“Blue Point on the other hand is harder to call for how he will progress next year. If he trains on then in my view it’s a straight fight between Blue Point & Churchill but in the Derby Churchill is the only horse for me – he gives me the same excitement as Golden Horn did.

“But to answer my question earlier the most impressive horse I have seen this year is BLUE POINT with Churchill and Annie Power a close second and third.”

60 Comments
  1. Profile photo of deeman
    deeman 1 month ago

    Thanks John. I’ll be at DR so I’ve took your nap. Any fancies in the champion chase? Cheers

  2. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 month ago

    Burnt Sugar
    This might surprise some as he is well behind in ratings but off level weights and at 50/1 that tells the story
    I have tipped this horse the last two times but the Hannon yard was woefully out of form but he still ran okay and last time I thought he was unlucky because when Hollie Doyle wanted to make her move she was forced to take a couple of pulls while other horses were quickening and that was after a slow start,
    Two runs ago Burnt Sugar was receiving 5lb from today’s favourite Growl and was beaten 4 1/2l, any handicap statistician will tell you that off level weights today Burnt Sugar has no chance with the favourite but what other stats tell us was that the Richard Hannon yard couldn’t buy a winner at the time and Burnt Sugar still showed signs of being better than the result,

    For years I have been advising people on how to bet properly because with the wrong mindset you will always lose money long term and if you are all honest then the vast majority of you will admit long term you don’t win and believe you can’t make betting pay,
    For the last three years on here I have proved with the right mindset betting can be profitable, but in honesty I have been showing profits for years, some that follow me make a good second income out of it while some make a living out of it,
    Now part of the mindset is being able to handle losing, backing a loser is good long term because it’s not about backing a winner it’s about backing a horse at the right price,
    Too many punters think a 1/2 winner is better than a 10/1 loser just because it’s a winner but that thinking is only good short term,
    I want to have the winner all the time but that will never happen so I would rather have an unlucky 10/1 loser than a 1/2 winner that is the wrong price because I know I was on the right horse even though it lost and long term I know my way will show profits

    Going back to today, Growl is one of those horses that is the wrong price because even if the horse wins, 13/8 is far too short for a horse that’s rating is a bit generous
    Growl is rated 114 but that’s down to his last run when second to The Tin Man in the Champions Sprint, that was an above average performance against horses that were out of form, it was a false result than can be ignored,
    I don’t think there is a lot between most of these and I would probably have Growl at about 3/1 favourite as a true price so he is the right favourite but just too short, and if the Hannon yard hadn’t been in such poor form I feel Burnt Sugar would be rated not far off the 106 he was rated just 4 months ago and I think a true price for Burnt Sugar is probably more like 14/1 not 50/1
    I am not backing Burnt Sugar simply because I have backed him the last two times, I am backing Burnt Sugar because I think he has a chance

  3. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 month ago

    Le Mercurey (NAP/NB)
    Won when last seen in April when beating Bristol De Mai but was a little flattering as Bristol De Mai was feeling the effects of a hard season but he has been improving with every run and the word from the Nicholls yard is he is better than ever, he loves a flat track and gets that today at Down Royal, the blinkers are back on after doing the business last time,
    Won first time out last season so that won’t be a problem,
    The Paul Nicholls yard is in decent form with 8 winners and 9 placed from last 29 runners,
    Nicholls has won this race 7 times from the last 8 running and should be able to add to that today with this good jumper

  4. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 month ago

    ***AVAILABLE FOR PREORDER ON 14TH NOVEMBER***

    10/1 AND ALL FOR A GOOD CAUSE

    Christmas Number One

    Yet again the X factor winner is favourite to be xmas number one but with everyone’s help we can make a lot of money for a worthy cause by spreading the word and if you want even have a bet on it

    Scottish band THE KING LOT have teamed up with THE JOLLYBOYS from Livingston to release a cover of U.S band TYKETTO’s song Wings,
    All in aid of the M.S Society

    The bookies have opened up a market on the xmas number one and make The King Lot featuring The Jollyboys the 10/1 second favourites

    THE KING LOT

    They have stepped into the breech and agreed to be the musical side of our Jollyboys Xmas charity song Wings (Tyketto)

    They are an amazing set of lads risking ife and limb in aid of The MS Society as working with the Jollyboys is not insurable.

    Over the next few weeks they will be dragging the Jollyboys kicking and screaming into the studio to record a mountanous, hugh mungus, (I know it’s not right) epic, gonad dropping version of the Tyketto song Wings

    And folks this year we absolutely mean business when we say we want the UK Xmas number 1

    MS will be the awareness topic on everybodys lips this Christmas and The Jollyboys and The King Lot will be raising that little glass award thingy you get for being top of the charts

    So I am throwing out a challenge to whichever big name wants to take us on….take a holiday this Xmas don’t waste your time firing out a record you have no chance of beating these guys.

    You have been warned !!!!!

    Get this all over social media and the boys can do it.

    https://www.facebook.com/TheKingLotOfficial/

    You can preorder from the 14th November, so come on help raise money for a great cause and have a bet at 10/1 paddy power, spread the word and make this happen

    NOW 8/1

    Odds starting to shorten for Christmas number one
    The King Lot ft The Jolly Boys are now 8/1

    When taking part in a coup like this it’s not like horse racing where the trainer does all the work and the punter just backs the horse,
    For this coup yes we put our money on but we also need to share the word everywhere on social media and we need to also get the single because it’s sales that determine the winner,

    so please preorder from the 14th November

  5. Profile photo of champyr
    champyr 1 month ago

    John, I see Lulu has three rides at Chelmsford today and at least two look like they are in with a chance. Any thoughts?

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 1 month ago

      Of her two rides the first one looks her best chance and I do like Racing Angel in the first,
      Cadland Lad in the 6:45 would be difficult to win with at the weights but if Lulu could steel a lead you never know

      • Profile photo of champyr
        champyr 1 month ago

        Thanks, I thought she was on Mossy’s lodge in the last. Time for that eye test I keep putting off.

  6. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 month ago

    2 days 14 hours and 50 mins to go

    Can the US Presidential election go to the US House of Representatives who haven’t decided the outcome of a presidential election since 1824, it has a better chance than ever before as Hillary Clintons lead in the polls evaporates away,
    In the US, Evan McMullin has gone from unknown to contender to win Utah, forecast models give McMullin an 18 to 25 percent chance of winning the state of Utah,
    There is a 1 percent chance of the election going to the HOR where Evan McMullin would stand chance in a three horse race because of all the trouble surrounding Hillary Clinton and the FBI investigation, also with the unpopularity of Donald Trump among the representatives of the House,
    So a saver on Evan McMullin at a very generous 500/1 with bet365 could pay because the House has a majority of Republicans who wouldn’t want Clinton as President

    Donald Trump doesn’t need to win Utah but it certainly would help him getting to the 270 mark, his main states he is looking at winning is Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania
    If Donald Trump wins the traditional red states plus the four states mentioned above then Donald Trump will become President Trump,
    this would mean he doesn’t need Virginia, Colorado or Florida,
    Trump won’t win the Presidency, Hillary will lose it,
    Believe it or not, Hillary Clinton is more hated than Donald Trump

    What we have to take notice of is when voters are so fed up, so disheartened of the system they show their disapproval with a vote and this time it will be a vote for Trump
    It was exactly the same with Brexit as a lot of leave voters voted out because they wanted to be heard and show their disapproval to the system,
    Donald Trump may be unpopular but he is seen as a far better option than Hillary

    The magic number is 270 electoral votes, my prediction is Donald Trump to get 273 or 274

  7. Profile photo of buildamarly
    buildamarly 1 month ago

    Sceau royal 11/10 surely!

  8. Profile photo of haggis44
    haggis44 1 month ago

    2.00-down royal
    After rain(NAP)
    2.35-down royal(NB)
    Adding 2 more for a lucky15
    2.45-wincanton
    Mias storm
    3.10-aintree
    Splash of ginge good luck everyone I fancy these today

  9. Profile photo of haggis44
    haggis44 1 month ago

    Sorry NB was valsa lido 2.35 down royal

  10. Profile photo of deeman
    deeman 1 month ago

    Would appreciate any tips for down royal today. Thanks lads

  11. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 1 month ago

    Twin Appeal..4.05..Doncaster and Peters 2 from last night,that’s me.I seem to remember an offer of accommodation, and possible job interview some 3 years ago,perhaps that was someone else.
    Gl

  12. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 1 month ago

    Morning all thanks for the comments lads couldn’t get back on last night well done peter Alanm dougie tipsultan DC and any other winners
    Mount tahan 1.50d 16/1
    Rayvin black 2.10w 12/1
    Kimbrella 2.25d 8/1
    Aljazzi 3.00d 8/1
    Baileys concerto 3.10a 14/1
    Montaly 3.35d 20/1
    Ew singles & ew lucky63 🍀GL all

  13. Profile photo of peter daryll
    peter daryll 1 month ago

    Sat-posted last night

    Wurood 9/4 – 12.40 Doncaster nb

    Gheeda 4/1 – 1.15
    Doncaster nap

  14. Profile photo of tipsultan
    tipsultan 1 month ago

    Doncaster-
    2.25- Growl – 15/8
    3.00- Lady Of Camolet- 8/1
    Aintree
    2.40 – Mister Miyagi- 9/4
    3.10 – Smoke Buckle- 9/2

    Good Luck

  15. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 1 month ago

    From yesterdays thread

    Just backong 2 tomorrow both at Down Royal and both raiders.

    LE MERCUREY 3/1 3.05
    I see john has napped him and when you look at Nicholls record in the race its easy to see why

    LONDON PRIZE 10/3 1.25
    If he can take to hurdling will take a lot of beating and has a big fitness advantage over the fav and i can see him go off shorter

    GL to all

  16. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 1 month ago

    Ocean Eleven 7.20 CH
    Dodgybingo 12.50 DR e/w
    As you say Dougie hungry fighters are the best fighters GL.

  17. Profile photo of theplug
    theplug 1 month ago

    clara sorrento 4-10 down royal 13/8
    curbyourenthusiasm 6-10 chelsford 5/2
    kruzhlinin 2-05 aintree 8/1
    cruiseaweigh 4-15 aintree 6/4
    lucky 15
    also two ew singles george bowen 1-50 don 8/1

    wrangler 3-35 don 7/1

  18. Profile photo of wmgy
    wmgy 1 month ago

    1.50 Doncaster

    Withernsea 9/1

    Money back as a free bet if your horse finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th with Skybet

  19. Profile photo of harryjw
    harryjw 1 month ago

    Morning everyone,

    Lots of lovely winners on the site yesterday. One bet today:

    2.25 Donc- Growl 6/4

    Growl has been improving all season and is now rated over 110. Today he runs against a bunch of average handicappers and of level weights he is a no brainer. He ran a great race at goodwood then again followed up with second in Ayr gold cup (a race that normally offers many clues for this race today). He was then unlucky at ascot by still managed 6th in challenge cup and than last time out ran a fantastic second in the group 1 on champions day against horses who are simply a different gravy to what he faces today. He will like the good to firm ground today and has a fine draw. I strongly recomment growl at 6/4. If you want you can back him insure 3 places at 8/11.

    Thanks guys and Gl all

    • Profile photo of harryjw
      harryjw 1 month ago

      Growl roars home victory!!! I hope everyone took my advice and went large on growl. He was a stonking bet today at a great price. If I’ve said it once I’ve said it a thousand times the only way to win money in horse racing is to go heavy on your strong tips. It’s impossible to win money every day on every race so try and limit it to horses you know will run well. It’s not rocket science it’s easy.

      Cheers guys and GL with the rest of your bets!

  20. Profile photo of bettingman1
    bettingman1 1 month ago

    Morning gents and lasses

    Big day at the down royal and I’m heading out for my first time….

    Got news of a tip, sub lieutenant apparently will run a good race

    Don’t hold it against me if she falls as anything can happen in racing

    Good luck today

  21. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 month ago

    Dinkum diamond 1.50 nap 12/1

    Been running well of low weights horse still has some ability

    Rfc zabana and jb nap too 👍

    Also aus -3 at evens is steal in the rugby also Newcastle to beat Cardiff bad day for my adopted country!

  22. Profile photo of ryanbelfast
    ryanbelfast 1 month ago

    Rottnpete what’s the tips you got for today mate

    • Profile photo of rottenpete83
      rottenpete83 1 month ago

      sorry mate i pulled my back out this morning was in agony all day. but i done u favour lol they didnt count one was dinkin diamond and the other was bog war

  23. Profile photo of unicorn
    unicorn 1 month ago

    Found – breeders cup turf. 10:22

  24. Profile photo of azzthewigan
    azzthewigan 1 month ago

    Kris cross 1.45 withernsea 1.50 aljazzi 3.00 win singles .well done all winners yesterday .

  25. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 month ago

    NAP wins 2/1
    NB Curbyourenthusiasm 2/1 6.10 Chelmsford
    also Ping 5/1 3.30 Kelso Trainer first time blinkers 50% strike rate

  26. Profile photo of peter daryll
    peter daryll 1 month ago

    Apologies for my 2

    Great play alanm and those that tipped growl up

    Well done all winners so far

  27. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 1 month ago

    Well done all who tipped GROWL

  28. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 1 month ago

    Well posted Last night Alanm,with Growl. Seems like when some on here regularly post winners,the gremlins appear,Hope this is not the case this time.
    Keep firing them in

  29. Profile photo of spurs55
    spurs55 1 month ago

    well done all winners
    think busstop is right about saturday BOOKIES DAY !!!!

  30. Profile photo of peter daryll
    peter daryll 1 month ago

    Exceptional alanm
    Everything crossed for your treble sir !

  31. Profile photo of azzthewigan
    azzthewigan 1 month ago

    Well done alanm cheers

  32. Profile photo of azzthewigan
    azzthewigan 1 month ago

    Off to the bommy with the family to watch all that money go up in smoke .my money went up in smoke this afternoon well done all winners illsithey

  33. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 month ago

    Ping lol

  34. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 1 month ago

    Great stuff alanm. Well done

  35. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 1 month ago

    Great stuff Alan,and bettingman1. thanks for posting,HE won well. Gl with those still with bets to run.Off to bonfire!

  36. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 month ago

    Football/rugby bet came in Shane about the horses!

  37. Profile photo of peter daryll
    peter daryll 1 month ago

    Alanm you mad guy ,
    Getting a treble on a sat. Take my hat off to you sir. Incredible. Won me lovely amount. Thank you !!

  38. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 month ago

    November 13.5pts down

    Sunday’s Tips

    Sandown
    2:50
    Royal Irish Hussar 5/2 NAP/NB coral (double stake)

    Cork
    3:15
    Wrath Of Titans 10/1 bet365

    0.5pt eachway Double 34.75/1 bet365

  39. Profile photo of uksevern
    uksevern 1 month ago

    harryjw.. be nice to see more selections from you on here..

  40. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 month ago

    Well done to Hibee Andy Murray on becoming World Number One

    He Persevered just like Hibs

  41. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 month ago

    Booooooooooooom 😀

    • Profile photo of spurs55
      spurs55 1 month ago

      GREAT TREBLE ALAN

      WELL DONE AND ON A SATURDAY TOO !!!!

      thx for all the time that you must put in,,,, cheers

  42. Profile photo of stevecee
    stevecee 1 month ago

    Amazing alanm well done

  43. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 month ago

    Cheers guys tomorrow is a new battle onwards

  44. Profile photo of theplug
    theplug 1 month ago

    well done ALANM

  45. Profile photo of rottenpete83
    rottenpete83 1 month ago

    anyone fancy any horses tonight at santa anita

  46. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 month ago

    Well done alanm left most of the tips alone today my bad 🙈

  47. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 1 month ago

    Unbelievable ride by Frankie there

  48. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 1 month ago

    Found and Limato for me

  49. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 1 month ago

    Santa Anita…21.43

    Not This Time. 5/1

    Also in a small stakes Yankee with Found,Limato and California Chrome.

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