I DECIDED to take a risk with the goals single on Monday in a bid to return it to profit – and the move paid off big time.
In one swoop I wiped out March losses by advising 3.5pts on Algeria to score 3+ away to Oman in an international friendly.
It was 3-0 inside an hour so the bet came up easily and I must thank raaljaca who tipped over 1.5 Algeria goals. I looked at the stats before considering it and discovered Oman usually concede three or four to decent opposition.
The goals single paid 11.67pts and now shows a small profit which I’m happy about. I won’t be doing the goals single v super single trial in April because it didn’t prove anything to me except you have to pick the right ones on any bet you choose.
Burton to beat Stevenage was the Super Single and unfortunately that ended in a draw so I’m down to a 2pts profit going into the last day of the month.
On Tuesday we’re confronted by more international friendlies including Italy v England, Holland v Spain and one qualifier – Israel v Belgium. Anyone who watched Israel lose 3-0 at home to Wales on Saturday will lump on the Belgians.
Israel were awful and could have slumped to a much heavier defeat. Their confidence will be shattered and you have to expect a similar sort of result after Belgium warned up nicely with a 5-0 weekend win against Cyprus. The Belgians are 1-2 with the likes of bet365 and Betfred to win and Belgium -1 is my Super Single at 7-5 with Paddy Power.
Looking at it logically the Belgians, still without Romelu Lukaku, should match Wales’ result. But Israel, who had been unbeaten in the campaign until the weekend, should be better although they are without top scorer in qualifying Omer Damari who was injured in that defeat and Eytan Tibi who was red carded.
I’m unashamedly going double or quits with the March profit so it’s 2pts on Belgium -1 for me – and it’s the same deal with the goals single (1.57pts – double or nothing for March).
I’ve seen Marouane Fellaini tipped to score after his weekend double and his aerial ability will test the Israelis. He is 3-1 with Paddy Power but I’m taking Kevin de Bruyne, 16 goals with Wolfsburg this season, at 11-4 with 888sport.
In League One Bradford face Gillingham as they continue to catch up after their FA Cup run and in Scotland it’s Falkirk v Cowdenbeath and Elgin v Berwick with the latter featuring the goals single.
The League Two clash is tough to call with both teams in decent form. Elgin have charged up the table since Xmas while Berwick are unbeaten in four since losing to Hibs in the Scottish Cup.
Elgin stunned leaders Albion Rovers 3-0 away on Saturday but have lost their last two at home while Berwick bashed East Fife away last midweek. Best bet could be both to score at 8-13 with bet365 but I’m chancing Elgin to score two or more at 11-8.
They have averaged two a game at home to Berwick in the last 13 meetings at Borough Briggs and have netted exactly two against the Wee Rangers in two of three meetings this season.
Falkirk need the points after slipping up at Dumbarton at the weekend and should bounce back with a win that pays no more than 1-3 with the likes of William Hill but again Falkirk -1 interests me at 10-11 with Paddy Power and while it’s risky I’m taking that to kick off the Top Treble.
An alternative would be Falkirk to win to nil (11-10, Paddy Power) as the Fifers have failed to net on their last eight visits – losing seven and six of them by more than one goal.
The only league game in England is Bradford v Chesterfield and it looks short of goals so add under 2.5 to the treble. The last two meetings at Valley Parade have totalled one goal and it was 1-0 Bradford earlier this season. City look a bit jaded and four of their last six have gone under 2.5 goals and Chestefield’s last two have been under 1.5.
I planned to tip against Wrexham in the Conference after they surprisingly lost the FA Trophy Final to North Ferriby on Sunday after extra time and penalties. After being 2-0 up the Wembley experience will have taken a lot out of the Welsh ahead of meeting in-form Dover. However, Wrexham have sacked boss Kevin Wilkin so I don’t know how that will affect the team but Dover still tempt at 7-5 with Betfred and William Hill.
Friendly internationals aren’t my cup of tea. Italy v England in Turin isn’t likely to be a thriller but Roy Hodgson seems to be taking it more seriously than his counterpart Antonio Conte.
Italy have won just three of their last 17 friendlies which makes you wonder why they bother even playing them. Conte has named a line-up that will feature Graziano Pelle and Eder, starting for the first time after scoring as a sub in Bulgaria at the weekend.
England will start Harry Kane and after his strike against Lithuania he is 8-1 with BetVictor and Ladbrokes to score first although Wayne Rooney is the 6-1 favourite with William Hill.
Hodgson’s side could win at 9-4 with Betfred but I’m completing the treble with England not to lose.
Team news is important for the other internationals so any news should be posted here.
2pts Super Single
Belgium -1 (7.45pm)
(7-5, Paddy Power)
1.57pts Goals Single
Elgin to score 2+ (7.45pm)
(11-8, 888sport, bet365)
2.5pts Top Treble
Falkirk -1 (7.45pm)
England not to lose (7.45pm)
Bradford v Chestefield under 2.5 goals (7.45pm)
Super Single March record
33 bets (13 winners, 18 losers, 2 void)
Goals March record
21 bets (10 winners, 11 losers)
Remember to check out the guys from We Love Betting for more tips and video chat – and it’s last chance to win an ipad mini on the Ladbrokes thread so have a go.