IF only … I wonder how many times I’ve said. This time it’s if only bookies hadn’t cut Stranraer from 6-4 to 5-4.
Stranraer were my Super Single in Saturday’s Daily Record and as I said yesterday I only changed on the site to Blackpool draw no bet after a fairly dramatic price drop.
That means I finish a rollercoaster February with a -6pts total – not what I want but not a disaster when you consider 25 bets have been posted. After losses two months running I’m trying an experiment on goals bets v W-D-W bets.
It should be easier to picks goals winners and I’ll be looking at markets such as both to score, team goals and over/under match goals. My staking plan allows me 10pts a day but the stake on both singles won’t always be the same although neither will be much under evens at worst.
While my Super Singles have been disappointing in the past week it’s been a different story with the trebles and a Top Treble of Man Utd, Hearts -1 and Airdrie paid 5-2 and made it seven winners in the past week.
Daily Record readers would have been happier than site visitors today as my Super Single, Top Treble and first scorer single Wolves’ Bakary Sako at 8-1 – landed. Sometimes it’s the other way round.
I’m hoping for a Super Sunday with my new two Super Singles – and watch out tomorrrow for a new betting challenge everyone can play.
For my Top Treble I’m starting with Valencia at home to Real Sociedad. There are some interesting stats surrounding this game with Real winning on their last three visits to the Mestalla but under Davie Moyes or the previous boss have failed to win on the road this season.
In fact against sides not currently in the bottom six the Basques record away is drawn one, lost five. On the other hand Valencia have won and only lost one of 12 at home and scored three or more in eight of their 10 victories. Back Valencia at 8-13 with firms such as Betfred.
Next take Real Madrid to beat Villarreal by two or more at the Bernabeu as they have in the last four seasons – 4-2, 3-0, 4-2 and 6-2.
I like Villarreal but they are always stronger at home and also played in the Europa League on Thursday, notching a fine win away to Red Bull Salzburg while Real had a free midweek.
Villarreal have lost their last eight matches away to Real and Barca and are weakened by the loss of captain Bruno Soriano.
Complete the treble in Portugal with Porto to beat Sporting. Porto have won nine out of 11 at home and tackle a Sporting side with just two wins in seven and who looked fairly tepid in drawing 0-0 with Wolfsburg to crash out of the Europa League on Thursday.
Porto must win to stay in touch with leaders Benfica. They should be the fresher of the two and have won the last five league meetings at home to Sporting.
My Super Single is Montpellier at home to Nice with virtually all the stats in the home side’s favour. Nice have won only one of the 11 meetings with Montpellier since the home side returned to the top flight in 2009.
Montpellier are in good form too having lost only one of their last nine league games while Nice have failed to score in their last four although three of them have finished 0-0. I was pleasantly surprised to see Montpellier at over evens.
The goals Super Single is both to score at Celtic v Aberdeen and there is reasoning for that one on the goals tips thread.
3.5pts Super Single
3.5pts Goals Super Single
Celtic v Aberdeen btts (12pm)
(10-11, William Hill)
3pts Top Treble
Real Madrid -1 (8pm)
(7-2, bet365, Betfred)
Super Single February record:
25 bets (10 winners, 13 losers, 2 void)
Chelsea 2, Spurs 2 (Sun)
Remember to check out the guys from We Love Betting for more tips and video chat.