MY only top tip was a loser as Marin Cilic failed to win a set against Novak Djokovic. A treble on Djoko, Andy Murray and Roger Federer paid just 1-3 but the trio proved they’re on another plane with easy quarter-final wins.
I commented two winners on friendlies – both at 1-2 thanks to Valencia to win both halves and Ross County HT/FT. I was out all day so didn’t get on the sides I flagged up in yesterday’s post including AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord who both won 8-1. But hopefully some profited.
There’s a big Europa League card on Thursday and I’m still looking at form, stats and team news before picking out a few teams.
Finding value is the toughest task. There are a lot of sides I like – Zilina, Jagelliona, Beroe, AIK, Apoel, Randers, etc – but all are extremely short priced.
Others at around 1-2 I’m considering are Ferencvaros at home to Go Ahead, Rabotnicki at home to Flora Tallinn, Inter Baku v Laci and Slask Wroclaw v Celje. Odd are bigger than evens at home to FC Sheriff after beating them 3-0 away – that’s odd!
Aberdeen, St Johnstone and West Ham are in second-leg action and all should win. Aberdeen conceded a late goal to draw at Shkendija while St Johnstone failed worse in the heat of Yerevan as they crashed 1-0 to Ashakert. The tepid displays can be excused with ring rust but there will be no defence if either club slips up in their return legs.
A double on the Dons and Saints pays no bigger than 4-6 at McBookie and I reckon they’ll do it. Aberdeen were dominant against the Macedonians but slackened off after taking the lead and are a best 1-5 with the likes of McBookie and Ladbrokes.
Derek McInnes’s men should feel right at home after another week improving their fitness and I’m backing them -1 at 8-13 with Stan James.
It’s tougher for Saints who can’t concede an away goal or they’ll need three to make it through. Tommy Wright’s side were lucky to lose just 1-0 in Armenia but remain hot favourites to progress and are 2-5 with McBookie and Stan James to win in Perth.
Unless it’s 1-0 and extra time Saints will need to win by two to qualify and are 23-20 with betway -1.
West Ham are the one English team in action after beating Lusitanos 3-0 at home. The English side were accused of a lack of respect because new boss Slaven Bilic handed over the side to coach Terry Westley.
He picked a handful of first-team players and mostly academy kids and will take the same squad to Andorra. With 90 more minutes under their belts West Ham should win by at least three so consider them minus three at 1-1 with McBookie.
Diafro Sakho is one the first-teamers in the squad and he netted a double in the first match. Back him at 2-1 with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes to score first while he is just 4-11 with Coral to net at any time.
At Wimbledon it’s the turn of the ladies with Serena Williams facing Maria Sharapova and surprise semi-finalists Agnieszka Radwanska and Garbine Muguruza facing off on Centre Court.
Williams is just 1-5 at Ladbrokes and Paddy Power and while I believe she’ll beat the Russian it could be a three-setter and 2-1 to the Grand Slam-chasing American is 10-3 at Ladbrokes and William Hill.
The other match is tougher to call but I’m backing Muguruza at 9-10 with Paddy Power to see off Radwanska.
I’ve picked out a both to score Europa League treble I like and will put up other tips in the morning. Welsh side Bala trail Differdange 2-1 and looking at stats both concede and score plenty.
Elfsborg were held 2-2 at Lahti and should win on their plastic pitch. They are unbeaten at home in the Swedish league but haven’t kept a clean sheet. Both can score again in this one.
Complete the treble with League of Ireland St Patrick’s at home to Skonto Riga. It was 2-1 to the Latvians in the first leg and St Pat’s having netted exactly three in their last four domestic matches, should at least hit the target. Skonto are no mugs though and it would be a surprise if they didn’t at least match the Dublin side’s away goal.
As far as the Super Single’s concerned I considered Odd and St Johnstone -1 but I’ve decided to go with a double – Elfsborg and Zilina -1 at home to Glentoran.
Zilina won the first leg 4-1 in Ireland and in front of their home fans. The Slovakians are a decent outfit and it will be damage limitation for Glens.
I’m putting up a 1pt Top Treble on the handicaps. Beroe beat Atlantas 2-0 away, Jagiellonia saw off Kruoja 1-0 on the road and Danes Randers won 1-0 at Andorran outfit Sant Julia with nine men. All of these sides should do better at home and for Beroe and Jagiellonia it’s about improving performance levels and fitness with each outing while with 11 men Randers should be able to knock four or five past the minnows.
There are so many factors to be counted before betting on tonight’s games that it’s a bit of a minefield. There is money to be made and I counted 17 teams I’d be confident about but most of the prices are 1-4 or lower.
5pts Super Single
(4-5, Stan James)
1pt Top Treble
Beroe -2 (6pm)
Jagiellonia -2 (7.30pm)
Randers -3 (6.05pm)
1pt both teams to score
Bala v Differdange (7pm)
Elfsborg v Lahti (5pm)
St Patrick’s v Skonto Riga (7.45pm)
(11-2, William Hill)
July Super Single record
13 bets (6 winners, 7 losers)
July Daily Double/Top Treble record
6 bets (6 losers)
Remember to check out our friends at We Love Betting for more video tips and chat.h