Jan 29: Johnb’s Racing Tips & Chat

Racing_WilliamHill

IT was two second places for Johnb on Thursday so three points lost.

He’s now 21.67pts down for January and hoping for a change of luck on Friday.

Johnb’s Friday Tips

Lingfield 1:15
Fastnet Prince 16-1 NAP Ladbrokes

2:20
Shirataki 11-4 NB bet365

Double 58.50-1 Ladbrokes

Fastnet Prince (NAP)
Johnb says: This horse has had just three runs but never on the all weather. I have a lot of horses that I have marked down for future reference, the comments I made for this horse back in July was “needs further and all weather Chelmsford or Lingfield”.
The progeny of his sire Fastnet Rock are better over longer distances and are better going left handed, there is speed in his breeding as well which can be key for Lingfield.
His previous three runs haven’t been too bad and it was the typical routine of three quick races and get a handicap mark. On his last run he looked like he had a bit to spare after finishing fourth but it has been puzzling as to why they have waited so long to run him again. He has changed stables so maybe it’s just taken him a while to settle in but connections look like they have found a good race for him and I am not worried about the break he has had. Also, the breeding is quite decent.
Main danger I think is Schoolboy Error.

Shirataki (NB)
Johnb says: Not a lot to say about this horse because everyone could see last time how unlucky he was.
All the way down the straight Lulu was looking for room and it was frustrating for her to cross the line with him on the bridle, it was so obvious how much this horse had left in the tank.
Lulu is onboard again which I am happy about and he steps up in distance, which shouldn’t be a problem.

81 Comments
  1. Profile photo of alex_mufc83
    alex_mufc83 11 months ago

    Tonight’s doubles:

    1. BTTS & o2.5mgs
    Feyenoord v Heren.
    Las Palmas v Valencia

    4/1
    1 POINT

    2.
    BTTS and draw
    BTTS and Feyenoord win

    10/1
    0.5 point

  2. Profile photo of alex_mufc83
    alex_mufc83 11 months ago

    Not sure what happened there I swear I was posting in the football blog haha. Sorry John!

  3. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 11 months ago

    Fastnet Prince (NAP)
    Just run three times this horse but never on the all weather,
    I have a lot of horses that I have marked down for future reference,
    The comments I made for this horse back in July was “needs further and all weather Chelmsford or Lingfield”
    The progeny of his sire Fastnet Rock are better over longer distances and are better going left handed, there is speed in his breeding as well which can be key for Lingfield.
    His previous three runs haven’t been too bad and it was the typical routine of three quick races and get a handicap mark, on his last run he looked like he had a bit to spare after finishing fourth but it has been puzzling as to why they have waited so long to run him again, he has changed stables so maybe it’s just taken him a while to settle in but connections look like they have found a good race for him and I am not worried about the the break he has had also the breeding is quite decent,
    Main danger I think is Schoolboy Error

  4. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 11 months ago

    Shirataki (NB)
    Not a lot to say about this horse because everyone could see last time how unlucky this horse was,
    All the way down the straight Lulu was looking for room and it was frustrating for her to cross the line with him on the bridle, it was so obvious how much this horse had left in the tank,
    Lulu is onboard again which I am happy about and he steps up in distance, which shouldn’t be a problem

    • Profile photo of champyr
      champyr 11 months ago

      JohnB,

      I think I read somewhere that Shirataki always breaks late due to a back injury, is that something you know anything about?

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 11 months ago

        I haven’t heard that but will ask,
        If he has then it’s not been bothering him

        • Profile photo of champyr
          champyr 11 months ago

          Not a current injury but something in the past if I recall, equally knowing my memory it could be a different horse.

  5. Profile photo of bobajob5
    bobajob5 11 months ago

    Fastnet prince couldn’t have went from 16/1 to 4/1 fav that quick could it?

  6. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 11 months ago

    Hopefully the same result as my last 16/1 tip at Lingfield which was Lightscameraction who won at 3/1

  7. Profile photo of biggee
    biggee 11 months ago

    2.00 Doncaster. . Present Lodger @6/1 bog I’m told this is chomping at the bit and should go well tomorrow. Gd luck.

  8. Profile photo of dancingbrave
    dancingbrave 11 months ago

    Thanks for the stats Johnb but don’t you think its time you stopped looking for the big hit doubles and trebles to try and stop the rot and concentrated on win singles?

    It seems that the good work you do on winners are overshadowed by your need to land a double or even a treble to get you back into profit and these are losing points that would have otherwise been banked?

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 11 months ago

      It’s worked for long enough and I never need to land a double whether I am up or down, people can make up their own mind what they want to do and a lot of the horses that aren’t winning are running well

    • Profile photo of
      11 months ago

      Spot on dancing brave there not bad stats at all Johnb but not many people backing 13 winners out of 55 runners would be out of profit . Since youv worked out the percentage of how many seconds youv had out of your 55 runners have you got percentage stats for fav’s and 2nd fav’s out of the 55 ? has to be very high which will back up your amount of 2nds lets face it going by the betting thats where there supposed to finish but your still over 20 points down. As your stats prove 2nds mean nothing at the end of the day.
      I bet your Fastnet prince last night at 10s for a small interest and going by the huge drift this morning it has no chance false gamble created last night already back out to 9s in a place and 11s on betfair a hope a’m wrong for you and everybody that has bet it.

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 11 months ago

        Actually it’s very low percentage of favourites and 2nd favs, but they do get backed in,
        As for false gamble what proof is there of it being a false gamble

        It is one of the less fancied trainers

        The owner isn’t known for big hitting

        The yard when they get a winner never seem to have a sustained gamble, they mostly see early money then drift again,

        Hugh Taylor has tipped the horse I said was the main danger so the money is coming for that one

        It’s good how people criticise me, I love it but to do it properly they need to put reasoning up why and not just they obvious that everyone can see

        • Profile photo of
          11 months ago

          Not criticising Johnb just stating the facts you mentioned last night about your last 16/1 winner that was at the start of December a month you ended up OVER 30 points down so that was a turn around of around 50 points anybody can see you changed your betting start of January to practically all fav’s and 2nd fav’s but you still cant hit this double your after losing nap after nap 13 winners out of 55 runners and down 20+ points is horrendous.
          You cant hide the fact with your stats about your 2nds your now over 120 points down since September and 20+ from the start of the year.
          Fastnet prince now back out to 12s and been laid again on Betfair at 16s av bet it myself so i hope a’m wrong and it wins you know yourself it doesnt take long for early prices to collapse on the all weather if its tipped somewhere causing a gamble time will tell if its false or not lets face it connections are the only people that know if its ready after 185 days off.

          • Profile photo of Johnb
            Johnb 11 months ago

            stevieg I mustn’t be able to see right, maybe blurred vision but I see boylesports are 10/1 but every other bookie have the horse priced up between 5/1 & 8/1

            Also unless I am wrong the year doesn’t start in September, I thought it was January,
            Also good of you to miss out the stats for February to July, I won’t say what they were because it’s about January 1st till December 31st
            Last year was profit again but that means nothing now, it’s in the past

        • Profile photo of Mr Fixit
          Mr Fixit 10 months ago

          Johnb, every tipster is criticised unfortunately even if we’re only trying to help people.
          The comments directed at you this morning are unfair and you have the answers.
          I’ve said it before but if someone like dancingbrave doesn’t like how you tip they don’t need to follow you.

    • Profile photo of shaky
      shaky 11 months ago

      I’d suggest that John has been incredibly unlucky in not landing at least one double this month, even with only 13 winners so far. Using a version of the formula for the birthday paradox ( the one that states that in a random group of 23 people, there is about a 50 percent chance that two people have the same birthday), with 13 winners over a 28 day period, the probability of two of them landing on the same day works out to be about 95%.

      • Profile photo of
        11 months ago

        Shaky that is correct anybody would have to be unlucky when picking 2 fav’s or 2nd fav’s everyday and not getting a double the fact is nobody can remember when Johnb got his last double up its months ago meaning by ALWAYS betting a full point on a double its impossible to make money of the single his monthly stats prove that is that also unlucky ? i really hope some people are backing his tips EW because anybody whos been betting them to win have long gone from this page.

        • Profile photo of Johnb
          Johnb 11 months ago

          As I have said before I can’t help if majority of my picks get backed into fav or 2nd fav, anyway gonna have to go, too much work to do instead of repeating myself on here

          • Profile photo of
            11 months ago

            Is that not what happens when you take your picks from the early markets off Oddschecker

            • Profile photo of Johnb
              Johnb 10 months ago

              Never use oddschecker, they are too slow and actual bookies sites could have their odds on upto 15 mins before oddschecker put them up
              and I pick them the night before because bookies can’t price horses up, with the resources they have they should not be allowing half the gambles that take place

        • Profile photo of Mr Fixit
          Mr Fixit 10 months ago

          stevieg, they’re Johnb’s tips so let him get on with them. If you love Hugh Taylor so much back them and keep away from here.

  9. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 11 months ago

    NAP Singlefarmpayment 7/2 2.40 Huntington
    NB Fable Of Arachne 9/2 1.15 Lingfield
    They’re off and running The Mumper 6/1 12.50 Doncaster GL

    • Profile photo of jimron12
      jimron12 11 months ago

      I like under the phone at 14/1 I think it was this morning I’ll jump in a ladbrokes now and I’ve mentioned it now gotta be on it 😉

      On the off and running stuff I always used to do a Yankee on the favs in the first races at each meeting and you’d be surprised how many favs seem to win the first races especially in the summer …..

  10. Profile photo of ticketyboo
    ticketyboo 11 months ago

    good morning racing fans 1 winner from 3 yesterday.

    1:50 Lingfield “Ragner” 13/8 bet365

    3:25 Lingfield “Custard the Dragon” 10/11 bet365 sorry for the skinny price

  11. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 11 months ago

    Also Napping SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 3/1 2.40 hunt
    NB STAR LINKS 5/1 7.15 wolves
    NEDS INDIAN 7/1 (now 4s) 8.00 dundalk

    Busy day ahead so
    Best of luck to all for today

  12. Profile photo of dancingbrave
    dancingbrave 11 months ago

    I don’t see it as a criticism John just an observation. I genuinely think that you hope to land one of these doubles to wipe out the months losses and start afresh in February. Personally, I think you would do a lot better sticking to your one a day bets and if it is a strong bet which would be a NAP/NB now just call it a 2pt win bet. Gambling is not just about getting winners its about confidence and we all know that when your on a bad run things somehow just don’t go your way. Yesterday was a prime example of two horses that ran well but were placed 2nd – would not surprise me at all if you were on a good run that at least one of these would have won !! I cant remember your previous months stats but I think you have had significant losses since August / September with no winning months since then so I would call that a pretty bad run :(

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 11 months ago

      I will say the same as earlier, on what planet does the year start in August/September,
      If you were a taxman maybe you could say April
      The stats are there for anyone to see, 2 winning years out of 2 since being on here, not going to say about the years before that because I wasn’t on here

      • Profile photo of Mr Fixit
        Mr Fixit 10 months ago

        dancingbrave, too negative. Find another tipster to slate.
        His tips are free in case you’re forgetting and no one’s forcing anyone to back them.

  13. Profile photo of chilleden
    chilleden 11 months ago

    I always back John’s horses each way. He says long term it is better to just back to win, but for the casual punter like me it seems to work out brilliantly. Very rare I do not get some sort of return and I am happy with that.

  14. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 11 months ago

    Right as its fun Friday I also went in on nap stakes in alanm and dc nap and John b NB in a double and blooming under the phone 12.50 is into 7/1!!

    Good luck all

  15. Profile photo of jamiea1991
    jamiea1991 11 months ago

    The drift back out is REAL

  16. Profile photo of nezhambo
    nezhambo 11 months ago

    Stevieg You talk a load of crap & leave Johnb to the guys who want his tips, the gamble on Fasnet Prince what you said was rubbish is on again and is being heavily backed again this morning if you are going to talk shit keep it to yourself

    • Profile photo of
      10 months ago

      lol nezhambo hard words from behind a keyboard as i said av bet the horse so i hope it wins the market is crazy down then back up then back down its actually fav now again so hopefully when it wins some people will actually have got the big prices not often you get 2 chances to get the big prices.

  17. Profile photo of kendog
    kendog 11 months ago

    Wtf fastnet prince back to 9/2 now!

  18. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 11 months ago

    Morning
    Big Chief Benny for me and sentiment bet on Horsted.

  19. Profile photo of thehawk
    thehawk 11 months ago

    See The World 3.40 Donnie
    Mazovian 4.10 Donnie

    2 X Singles and Double

    Good Luck Folks

  20. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 11 months ago

    Morning all
    HOLIDAY HENRY 1.15L
    INDIAN SCOUT 2.20L
    LITTLE CHOOSEY 4.45W
    KODIAC LADY 6.45W
    GENERAL BUNCHING 8.30D
    EW SINGLES & EW LUCKY 31
    GL ALL

  21. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 10 months ago

    Also ctc on mine alanm & johnbs

  22. Profile photo of on the bob
    on the bob 10 months ago

    I like jimrons approach. “Fun Friday”

    I can’t find much but I’m on ragner in the 1.50 Ling so that’s my only proper bet.

    I’ll find 6 long shots for some e/w Acca fun.

    Saving my cash for tomorrow.⚽️🐴

    • Profile photo of
      10 months ago

      Some great interesting racing tomorrow on the bob Mullin’s coming over with another raiding party against some of UK’s big guns

  23. Profile photo of de niro
    de niro 10 months ago

    1-15 Lingfield
    Holiday Henry 8/1 bet fred sky bet

  24. Profile photo of
    10 months ago

    Hi all

    great day yesterday with 2 winners

    L 1.50 CACHAO

    L 2.20 SMUGGLERS LANE

    L 4.00 FIRST REBELLION

    L 4.30 CLASSIC MISSION

    good luck everyone

    happy days

  25. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 10 months ago

    Fastnet Prince travelled well, Havlin got the horse in a good position and turning for home looked a big danger but has ran out of steam in the home straight, looks like he will come on a lot for that first run back,
    He has certainly filled out a it and is a big horse, probably will need 1 mile 4 furlong in time but would like to see him try 1 mile 2 furlong next time, certainly one to keep an eye on though

    • Profile photo of
      10 months ago

      Johnb you were right it did travel well but looked huge obviously blow up needing the run cant believe it was connections money causing the gamble with them knowing how big the horse was shame 16/1 winner would have been handy.

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 10 months ago

        It’s not money from this site because if it was then all horses would get backed like that

        • Profile photo of
          10 months ago

          Yeh a’m not saying it was maybe it was put up on 1 of the bigger FB pages

  26. Profile photo of de niro
    de niro 10 months ago

    14-00 Doncaster
    Baku Bay 12/1 ladbrokes coral

  27. Profile photo of
    10 months ago

    Afternoon all

    boz Thanks for them last night found them written on a beer mat

    Huntingdon

    14.40 ADMIRAL COLLONGES **
    15.15 AT THE TOP **
    16.20 BAGS GROVE ***** NAP

    Doncaster

    15.05 THOMAS BROWN **** NB

    gl all

  28. Profile photo of dancingbrave
    dancingbrave 10 months ago

    Hardly negative at all Mr F, just being realistic which sadly neither you or John seem to be. Whether his tips are free or not is irrelevant, and as the racing tipster for the Mr Fixit Tips brand he has been simply awful for six months. I strongly believe if he went back to the basics things would pick up – is that such a negative view?

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit
      Mr Fixit 10 months ago

      dancingbrave, Johnb’s the tipster – it’s up to him.
      We don’t have a brand but Johnb’s been nothing but good for the site.

  29. Profile photo of de niro
    de niro 10 months ago

    14-30 Doncaster
    Dukes Den 20/1

    15-40 Doncaster
    Rainy City 11/1 888sport

  30. Profile photo of ray_ez
    ray_ez 10 months ago

    Like ‘the tourard man’ in the 15:05
    Only one I can see that’s done the job over this distance

  31. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 10 months ago

    Well in busstop with Thomas Brown,have had to do the forcast with your nap. You know me when it comes to Greatrex.
    Onwards

  32. Profile photo of swany
    swany 10 months ago

    Cheers for Big Chief Dougie,when I seen you fancied it I had no reservations and went on the warpath

  33. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 10 months ago

    Neds Indian 8.00 Dundalk 100/30
    moving on up 9.00 5/1 GL

  34. Profile photo of dkblindspot
    dkblindspot 10 months ago

    I’ve backed Johnb tips for nearly the last 2 years ,never complained and won’t.If someone gives up there time to post then make the choice if to back or not.
    Early 2014 was top class though lol.
    Remember always get strange results when the going is heavy and I daresay now the going is changing in some places it will happen all over again .
    Chin up JB everyone’s luck always changes.

  35. Profile photo of de niro
    de niro 10 months ago

    Dundalk
    5-30 Deeds Not Words 13/2
    6-00 Touch of Gold 10/1 bet 365
    6-30 Elusive Paris 12/1 bet 365
    7-00 Wheels of Fortune 9/4
    7-30 Ciao Cielo 33/1 ladbrokes
    8-00 The Butchers Filly 22/1 sky bet
    8-30 Universal Mind 14/1 bet 365
    9-00 Moving Up 11/2

    • Profile photo of alanm
      alanm 10 months ago

      DeNiro welcome back hope your keeping fine and get them daily naps up. GL

      • Profile photo of ray_ez
        ray_ez 10 months ago

        Been ages since I’ve seen your tips de Niro. Nice to have them back.

  36. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 10 months ago

    Well done Dougie and Busstop as always

  37. Profile photo of
    10 months ago

    To early prices for me tomorrow Shaneshill 15/8 PP 1-00 Don 2m probably to short but i can see Shaneshill making all the running and Vaniteux struggling to get past weak finisher in my book.
    Up For Review 2/1 PP 2-40 Don fancy him to outstay Barters Hill in what looks like a 2 horse race and my pick for the Albert Bartlett great race on the cards.
    Mullin’s double

  38. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 10 months ago

    January 24.67 points down

    Saturday’s Tips

    Cheltenham
    2:25
    Un Beau Roman 16/1 NB Ladbrokes

    3:00
    Chef D’oeuvre 10/1 NAP Ladbrokes

    Double 0.5 point each way
    Un Beau Roman & Chef D’oeuvre 186/1 Ladbrokes

    If anyone would prefer to do the singles each way then that’s your choice, I back win only but it doesn’t mean you have to a swell

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 10 months ago

      I should also have said that the best bet tomorrow is THISTLECRACK in the 3:35 Cheltenham but I don’t back odds on, even at 4/5 Ladbrokes

      • Profile photo of ray_ez
        ray_ez 10 months ago

        Singles ew doubles as usual John. Didn’t fancy today’s but I decided not to bet after having a look for myself. Not sure why the numptys. It’s no rocket science.

  39. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 10 months ago

    Tonight’s small stakes bets are Black Truffle 6.45 and forecast at Dundalks7.30 Hat Alsager to try to make all and Bisham Bedi to arrive on the scene.
    Gl

  40. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 10 months ago

    The most important race of the jumps season so far for people on this site must be the Cleeve Hurdle on Saturday at Cheltenham,
    Thistlecrack has had his knockers, Thistlecrack didn’t have the class to beat the real staying hurdles, but he has done his talking in the best way possible, winning at the track.
    Thistlecrack was put up antepost when he was 20/1 and is now a short priced favourite for Cheltenham,
    Now it’s “he flopped at Cheltenham on his only previous run there”
    That’s it one run, one bad performance and the horse is useless, no mentions of how the step up to 3 miles plus has rejuvenated this horse and he is quite rightly the favourite for the World Hurdle,

    Second favourite Camping Ground won well in the Relkeel hurdle and last year he did beat Thistlecrack by just over a length while also giving away 15lb to Thistlecrack, that was over an extended 2 mile and Thistlecrack as I have said didn’t really improve till he was stepped up to 3 miles

    Colin Tizzard when asked about that defeat recently, said ” I think ours has improved by more than a stone, don’t you” class response Mr Tizzard, he later said that he thought Thistlecrack had improved 3 stones over his next four races since going over 3 miles

    Tom Scudamore says his only real blot on a hugely progressive profile is when he was beaten a long way on this card last year in the Neptune Trial, but Scudamore was happy to put that down to an off day saying “I don’t think anything about the Cheltenham form. He’s only run there once and it was just an off day, he was just below par, simple as that”

    THISTLECRACK is now as high as 11/4 paddy power and as low as 15/8 betvictor and as John McCririck would say “Betvictor knows”
    Anyone thinking about backing Vroum Vroum Mag need to know even connections say she is not as good as Annie Power

    ANNIE POWER is the only horse with the class to give Thistlecrack a race but she will be going for the Mares hurdle and who knows maybe Thistlecrack is a future Gold Cup winner

    • Profile photo of
      10 months ago

      Or if they can get a run into Annie in the next few weeks 2 races it can run in if ready then it goes for the World John then i would be worried about our antipost bets on Thistlecrack

  41. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 10 months ago

    Torn between Black Truffle and Kodiac Lady so going to throw in Macs Powerfor small mixed f/casts etc

  42. Profile photo of de niro
    de niro 10 months ago

    alanm & ray ez :-)

    blowing away the cob webs today – back with a vengeance Saturday :-)

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