GREG got his usual late goal on his way to a couple of winners and my first 2pt Super Single of the month returned me to the red.
Over 2.5 goals at FSV Frankfurt and Thun came up for Greg (I didn’t see the Estonian results) while Roma were my 6-5 single choice to win the derby against Lazio. I covered draw at 28-1 with 0.1pt when Roma were leading 2-0 but it wasn’t required.
My 7-2 both to score treble came in at Rapid Vienna, Inter and Lorient but the Top Treble was beaten by Sevilla and Inter. Jordan was also undone by nine-man Inter.
Monday’s quiet before a seriously busy Tuesday but one bet has caught my eye – although it might not be for everyone.
In Portugal bottom-of-the-table Tondela travel to Porto with the home men as short as 1-12 with GentingBet. Tondela are nine points adrift at the foot and bookies give them no chance against a Porto side who will close to within six points of leaders Benfica with a win.
I’m not arguing with them but I’m tempted by both to score despite the gulf in quality. Tondela usually lose but score more often than not and have netted in their last six games despite winning just one of those.
They netted in a 4-1 defeat at Benfica and a 2-2 draw at Sporting, also two on the road at Rio Ave. There is though no h2h to look at as they’ve never travelled to Oporto and did lose 1-0 at home earlier in the season.
In their last 10 Porto have kept just two clean sheets and conceded two at home to Madeira, Moreirenense and Arouca and three at Braga. Still, however, they have the best defensive record in the league at home with nine goals conceded.
In the other game in Portugal second-placed Sporting should beat Belenenses but are just 4-11 to take the points so I’m starting the Top Treble with over 2.5 goals at 3-4.
Belenenses are minus two key defenders – skipper Brandao and right-back Andre Geraldes – and eight of their last 10 games have gone over 2.5 goals.
In Serie A Bologna should beat basement boys Verona but have netted just once in five games although three of those finished 0-0 including Juventus at home.
It’s the same in Spain with second bottom Levante facing second bottom Sporting Gijon. Sporting ended a run of four defeats by shocking Atletico Madrid last time out and going by that it’s a tough one to call.
However, looking more into it Levante have won four of their last six at home – the other two were against Real Madrid and Barcelona. And while Sporting’s win against Atletico has to be respected they’ve been dire on the road picking up just four points from their last 33.
So I’m willing to take a chance on Levante and add Besiktas at Kasimpasa to complete the treble.
Leaders Besiktas are three points clear of Fenerbahce in the title race and should double that advantage. They have won four in a row since losing to Fener and have an almost perfect record at Kasimpasa – sevens and one draw in eight visits with the last three being 5-1, 3-0 and 3-1 victories.
For a scorer I’d consider Mario Gomez who will be in confident mood after scoring for Germany against England.
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1pt Super Single
Porto v Tondela btts (7pm)
1pt Top Treble
Belenenses v Sporting over 2.5 goals (9pm)
April Super Singles Total
(3 bets, 1 winner)
(7 bets, 1 winner)
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