Tom Aspinall will finally return to action when he enters the Octagon to defend the undisputed UFC heavyweight title against former interim champion Ciryl Gane. Fans around the world expect a one-punch knockout or an early submission. Find out what we expect in our Aspinall vs Gane prediction, and claim a super boost at TalksportBet if you don't yet have an account with them.
Fight odds and win probability: Aspinall strong favourite at 3/10
See the current Aspinall vs Gane odds below:
Tom Aspinall: 3/10 (1.30) – Implied probability 76.92%
Ciryl Gane: 14/5 (3.80) – Implied probability 26.32%
That just goes to show that the TalksportBet offer above is excellent value if you want to have a small wager on the Englishman.
Keys to victory
Many fans and experts alike believe that Ciryl Gane did not deserve to beat Volkov and this title shot is undeserved. There is no doubt he has been a Top 5 heavyweight over the past five years, but Tom Aspinall is unlike anyone he’s ever faced.
Tom Aspinall – Close the distance
The champion must overcome the reach disadvantage by probing the distance and searching for openings as soon as possible. He needs to stay active with low kicks and jabs until he gets close enough to shoot for a takedown.
Once Gane is down, Aspinall will not let him get up either until he submits, knocks him out, or the round ends.
Ciryl Gane – Don't stop moving
Gane knows he will lose the fight if he gets taken down. He cannot afford to stay in one place and will try to shift and try attacking from different angles. If Aspinall closes the distance, Gane will be forced to clinch in order to remain on his feet.
The Frenchman is not stronger than Aspinall but may be faster than him. His flawless front kicks and jabs could be the key to success, as long as he can remain on his feet.
Tale of the tape
Tom Aspinall
- Nationality: Great Britain
- Record: 15-3
- Height: 6'5″
- Weight: 255 lb
- Reach: 78″
Ciryl Gane
- Nationality: French
- Record: 13-2
- Height: 6'4″
- Weight: 247 lb
- Reach: 81″
Many would say that the UFC wasted Aspinall’s best years by making him wait for that Jon Jones fight, which obviously never happened. The champion last fought in July 2024, which is a shocking downtime. Nevertheless, Aspinall’s UFC career so far has been flawless, save for his loss to Blaydes, when the Englishman injured his leg 15 seconds into the fight.
But last year, Tom knocked Blaydes out cold in the first minute of their fight, proving what we all already knew. The champion enters this contest with a 15-3 record.
As for Ciryl Gane, this will be his third attempt to win the undisputed championship, after losing title fights against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. On paper, this could be his best chance, but we have to remember that he is also a lot older now. The Frenchman enters the contest with a 13-2 record.
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane: Hot stats
- Tom Aspinall’s average fight time is 122 seconds across nine bouts. Not even one of his fights has entered the third round.
- While Aspinall and Gane have the same height, the Frenchman has a three-inch reach advantage.
- Aspinall has significantly more impressive Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) stats than Gane. The Englishman lands 8.07 strikes per minute, while the Frenchman lands 5.26.
Our top tip: Aspinall to win via submission
Aspinall is the clear favorite in this title fight. The only thing that could work against him is the lengthy layoff he was forced into because of Jon Jones. Barring the Englishman's activity, Gane has little to offer as a counter. Aspinall is an all-time leader in terms of shortest average time in the octagon, having finished almost all of his fights within the first five minutes.
And while he knocked out most of his opponents, he is equally capable on the ground, which is what we expect to witness in this bout. Striking exchanges will be a risk against Gane, and both Ngannou and Jones exposed his weaknesses on the ground.
Gane is fast and has excellent footwork, so catching him with a knockout punch will be much harder than taking him down. With this said, we expect a quick and dominant performance from the champion.
Vladislav has been professionally engaged in freelance journalism for seven years and has worked with numerous leading sports publications. A football and martial arts fanatic, he spent years training in both disciplines before turning to writing.
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