Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev is the top match of the 10th day of the US Open, and it’s our top US Open betting tip for today as well. It’s a fantastic matchup, and there are plenty of previous matches to fall back on to try and understand what might happen.
From everything we've seen so far, one side is the clear side to back, but often, in tennis, it’s not that simple. We’ll explain below what that exactly means in our Sinner vs Medvedev prediction and betting tips.
Player form: Sinner dominating
Daniil Medvedev didn’t arrive in New York in top form, but he found a really high level here and has been playing really well over the last 10 days.
Sinner, on the other hand, has been dominating for a while, having won the Cincinnati Open. He’s found success against Medvedev in recent years as well.
They're playing at about the same level right now, but there is always a chance that one of them will find a better level on the day.
How the bookies view it: Sinner a moderate favourite
Sinner is a decent favourite here, which isn’t that surprising considering how good he’s been on hard courts this year. He’s lost only two matches on the surface in 2024, and he easily bested Medvedev earlier this year in Miami.
Bookmaker Betfred has the Italian at odds of 2/5 to win the match, which are pretty low odds, showing just how big of a favourite he truly is. Medvedev to win is 9/4 – very juicy odds that warrant at least a thought before we make a pick here.
Recent head-to-head: Medvedev leads 7-5
While the head-to-head favours Medvedev slightly, there is a problem there. Most of those wins came earlier, before Sinner evolved into the player he is today. Sinner has won five of the last six matches between the two. The only one won by Medvedev is the most recent one at Wimbledon, which Sinner played sick in.
The Italian has also won all five of their most recent matchups on hard courts.
Anything else catch the eye?
The matchup largely depends on how Sinner plays on the day because he’s one of the few players who can actually hit through Medvedev.
He’s beaten him in all five of their last hard court matches, and these defeats mostly came from the baseline. There is danger that he over-hits, like he did at Wimbledon, but that’s always going to be the case with his style of play.
Sinner won’t beat Medvedev every time they play, but the one that is coming up surely looks like a matchup that he will be able to win.
Sinner vs Medvedev betting tips & predictions
Sinner is the right side to back here simply because he’s been really good against Medvedev. It could end up backfiring but he’s the safer side to pick as Medvedev does play a bit loose at times.
- Sinner handicap sets -1.5 @ 5/6
- Sinner 3-0 @ 2/1
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
In December 2020 we sadly 
