Sevilla vs Krasnodar
UEFA Europa League. Kick-off: 5.55pm, Thursday 13th December. Live on BT Sport
SEVILLA were expected to stroll through Group J but they head into the final match at home to Krasnodar knowing a defeat could send them crashing out of Europe.
And if Standard Liege get a win in Turkey against Akhisarspor in their clash then a draw won't be enough to keep alive Sevilla's hopes of lifting this trophy for a sixth time.
That they find themselves under such pressure is down to a surprise 1-0 loss to Standard in their last European outing, a result which has left this group on a knife edge.
If Sevilla and Standard both win they will join Krasnodar on 12 points but it will be the Belgians who miss out unless Krasnodar lose 4-0 or by five goals.
The Russians need just a point to seal top spot but the bookies don't fancy them as 888 Sport make Krasnodar 13/2 outsiders, with Sevilla as short as 7/20 and the draw 22/5.
Given that Krasnodar won the reverse fixture 2-1 those odds seem a bit unfair, especially as they sit second in the Russian league, just a point behind Zenit St Petersburg.
Sevilla's form has also been patchy of late, with Pablo Machin's side winning just one of their last four games and even that was just 1-0 against lowly Villanovense in the Copa Del Rey.
But this is the Europa League, the tournament that always seem to bring the best out of Sevilla, and I suspect they will have enough to get through.
Krasnodar fans might be worried about that goal difference against a side with the deadliest attack in the Europa League.
Sevilla haven't been firing of late, however, failing to score more than one goal in each of their last five games, so I can't see them bagging the four or five that would send the Russians out.
Machin's side have been hit with a few suspensions and will miss the creative spark of Pablo Sarabia. They also have defender Sergi Gomez banned and that will give Krasnodar more hope.
Under 2.5 goals is available at 17/10 with 888 Sport and that looks a decent shout, as does both teams not to score which is 27/25.
Krasnodar may just sit back and hope to limit the damage so try backing Sevilla to win without conceding which is an excellent 29/20 with 888 Sport.
Wissam Ben Yedder has been in good scoring form for the Spanish side and is a good shout for first scorer at 13/2.
Recommended bets
- Under 2.5 goals 17/10 (888 Sport)
- Sevilla to win without conceding 29/20 (888 Sport)
- Both teams not to score 27/25 (888 Sport)
I'm a sports journalist, football tipster and author from Dundee, who is now working in Glasgow. I've covered games at every level, from Junior football to internationals, and still love football even though it has clearly sold its soul. I've been in football tipping since 2018 with the MFT site.
GambleAware