Day five at the ATP 250 event in Geneva is set to deliver some captivating matches in the quarter-finals. With Roland-Garros only a week away, these matches are critical for players looking to gain momentum and improve their game before the French Open.
Second seed Casper Ruud is going to clash with fifth seed Sebastian Baez in the Geneva Open quarter-finals. Baez has already grabbed two clay titles this year in Rio and Santiago, while Ruud dominated the Barcelona Open after defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets. Both of these young players are in great form, especially on clay.
Baez, the 20-year-old Argentine, currently holds the 20th spot in the ATP rankings, having peaked a career-high rank of No 19 in March 2024. He has showcased exceptional skill at the Geneva Open, defeating Sumit Nagal in the first round and Roberto Carballes Baena in the second round, both in straight sets.
Ruud, on the other hand, is a specialist at this tournament, having claimed titles here in both 2021 and 2022. Ranked seventh in the world, the Norwegian defeated Sebastian Ofner to reach the quarter-finals and is going to try and claim his Geneva Open title back.
Which of them is more likely to reach the semi-finals? Read on for our Ruud vs Baez prediction and betting tips.
How the Bookies View it: Ruud the Favourite
Bookmaker bet365 is inclined towards Ruud in this matchup, making him the favourite at 4/9. Despite Baez's impressive performance, he stands at 7/4, likely due to his previous defeats against Ruud. Set betting suggests a 2-0 win for Ruud is most likely, with this paying 6/5.
Recent Head-to-Head: Advantage Ruud
Ruud and Baez have met twice in the past, with Ruud emerging victorious on both occasions. Their last match against each other was back in July at the ATP Hamburg, where Ruud defeated Baez in three sets.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
ATP 250 tournaments are Ruud’s bread and butter. The Norwegian won the first 10 titles of his career at this level and is remarkably proficient at navigating his way through these events to come away with silverware.
Ruud will be particularly motivated to put in a strong performance this week after two disappointing showings in Rome and Madrid.
The 25-year-old began his European clay season with two impressive runs—one to the final of the Monte-Carlo Masters and one to win the title in Barcelona. With losses in the round of 16 and first-up in Madrid and Rome, a title in Geneva would see his confidence pick back up ahead of Roland-Garros.
For Baez, he’s the definition of a mercurial player. When he’s cold, he’s cold; but when he’s hot, he’s hot. Already this year, the Argentinian has won back-to-back titles, followed immediately by a four-match losing streak. Last year after Wimbledon was the same, but in reverse—four consecutive losses, then back-to-back titles.
Which Baez are we seeing right now? Is this the beginning of another streak?
Ruud vs Baez Betting Tips and Predictions
Based on Ruud’s last two victories over Baez, this match is more than likely to be a nail-biter that demands a third set.
- Ruud to win @ 4/9
- Ruud to win 2-1 @ 3/1
Ruud and Baez will play fourth on the Centre Court of the Geneva Open on Thursday, not before 6pm local time.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
