While Valencia have a mathematical chance of making it to the Conference League, their assignments include clashes with two of the league's finest – Athletic Bilbao and Real Betis.
Valencia's season has been a rollercoaster of ups and downs, and they experienced their biggest setback yet when they lost away at Alaves last week. Even being this close to Europe is a huge achievement for the team, as they were near the bottom of the table around the middle of the season.
Anything but the win on Sunday will extinguish their chances for European football, and unfortunately, it's hard to expect a positive result knowing how phenomenal Athletic are currently. The Lions experienced a horrible elimination from Manchester United in the Europa League, but this setback didn't affect their performance in the domestic league.
Bilbao have already guaranteed themselves a spot in the Champions League, but there is no reason to stop here, as Atletico Madrid are just three points above them in 3rd place.
How the bookies view it: Do they underestimate the Lions?
Surprisingly, bookmakers gave a huge betting advantage to Valencia. The Bats indeed have more to play for now, but 6/5 feels excessive. Alternatively, you can pick Athletic Bilbao at 14/5 or the draw at 2/1.
Recent head to head: Bilbao have the upper hand in this tight rivalry
This rivalry has been extremely tight in recent years, with only one of the last 10 H2Hs ending with more than a goal difference. Athletic Bilbao have the upper hand with four wins next to two for Valencia, but we have not seen a truly one-sided clash in many seasons. Yes, the Lions were in full control during the reverse fixture this season, which they won 1-0, but the 1.07 xG shows that they didn't really miss too many chances either.
Players to watch: Duro feels best at home
Finding a suitable pick in this matchup is an almost impossible task. Overall, we wouldn't risk too much money on a goalscorer here for a couple of reasons. Firstly, neither side has a distinguished goalscorer in form right now. Secondly, expectations are set for a clash with few to no goals. Nevertheless, if you insist on betting here, watch out for Valencia's Hugo Duro. The 25-year-old is the team's top scorer with 11 league goals this season, and he scored seven of them at Estadio de Mestalla.
Probable line-ups
Valencia: Mamardashvili, Gaya, Tarrega, Mosquera, Foulquier, Guerra, Barrenechea, Lopez, Almeida, Rioja, Duro
Athletic Bilbao: Simon, Marcos, Vivian, Alvarez, Berchiche, Galarreta, Jauregizar, Gomez, Sancet, Berenguer, Guruzeta
Anything else catch the eye?
While several recent H2Hs featured more goals than usual, it is hard to expect a goal-packed clash with so much at stake here and Athletic Bilbao's current form. The Lions have the best defence in La Liga this season. They've only conceded 26 goals in 36 matches, an average of 0.72 goals per match.
More impressively, they are currently on a streak of four consecutive matches with a clean sheet. The last goal they conceded in the league was against Real Madrid one month ago. And overall, only 13 of their 36 fixtures this season featured more than two goals. Moreover, 13 of the last 17 meetings between the Bats and the Lions ended with fewer than three goals.
We envision a very tight contest and there are good prerequisites for a draw. A scoreline around 1-1 feels like the maximum we can expect here.
GambleAware