It took four rounds and a flawless Stuttgart to finally take down St Pauli after what has been a sensational campaign start for the Neighbourhood Kickers, who barely escaped relegation last season. And now enter former champions Bayer Leverkusen, who are still recovering from the series of managerial changes.
The general consensus was that St Pauli would be battling relegation once more this season, but the Neighbourhood Kickers responded with their best-ever top flight season start, going unbeaten in the first three rounds. Their streak ended during their recent trip to Stuttgart, but the home win over Augsburg and the 3-3 draw with Borussia Dortmund prove that St Pauli should not be underestimated.
Bayer Leverkusen are struggling to find any consistency after Kasper Hjulmand replaced Erik ten Hag just three games into the season. One could say there isn’t much improvement, as Die Werkself achieved just one win in their last three games, and last week’s draw with Borussia Monchengladbach confirmed their place in the bottom half of the table and a whole seven points behind Bayern Munich. Scoring goals has never been a problem, but their defence has been the weakest link since the start of the season.
How the bookies view it: Closer than expected
We expected bookmakers to give Bayer Leverkusen a bigger advantage, but the odds are not that far apart. You can currently pick St Pauli at 21/10, the draw at 13/5, or Leverkusen at 6/5.
Recent head-to-head: St Pauli last won in 2007
This is only St Pauli’s second top flight campaign since 2010/11, meaning that the teams haven’t had many chances to meet in recent years. Last season’s clashes were extremely close, with Leverkusen achieving a minimal 2-1 at home, before going level (1-1) away at St Pauli. And if we have to go more in-depth about the last trip to the Millentor-Stadion, St Pauli were the better team on the pitch and perhaps even deserved to win.
Players to watch: Hountondji’s influence is significant
Andreas Houtondji is getting used to life in Germany and the higher level of the Bundesliga surprisingly well. He spent the last season on loan to Standard Liege in Belgium and scored only four goals in the league. For comparison, he already has three goals for St Pauli after four rounds. His goals motivated his side for the comebacks against Augsburg and Dortmund, and we look forward to seeing how he will manage against Leverkusen’s struggling defence.
Probable line-ups
St Pauli: Vasilj, Dzwigala, Smith, Wahl, Oppie, Fujita, Sands, Saliakas, Sinani, Lage, Hountondji
Bayer Leverkusen: Flekken, Tapsoba, Bade, Quansah, Grimaldo, Garcia, Andrich, Vazquez, Tillman, Maza, Schick
Anything else catch the eye?
There are noticeable trends in both teams’ performances. Bayer Leverkusen often start strong and score first, but then drop the ball and somehow end up losing points. Meanwhile, St Pauli have displayed enviable comeback abilities and shouldn’t be underestimated.
One way or another, we expect goals from both teams and we’d stick to the goal-related markets. Betting on a winning side here is a bad decision, as Bayer Leverkusen are too inconsistent. Alternatively, we’re going for Over 4.5 cards, as both sides have had 5+ cards in three out of four Bundesliga games this season.
GambleAware