Azerbaijan's Qarabag have been a permanent feature of UEFA's competitions in the past decade, and have already guaranteed themselves a spot in the Conference League. But Champions League football remains a real possibility, as long as they beat Shkendija on Thursday.
The most successful Azerbaijani team on the European stage, Qarabag, won the domestic title for the ninth time in the last 10 years. And for the last 11 years in a row, they reached the group stage of either the CL or the EL. In 2023/24, they even made it to the Round of 16. Their performance in the League Phase of the Europa League last season left much to be desired, but the Horsemen look a lot more competitive at the start of this season.
North Macedonia's Shkendija have secured their debut in the League Phase of the Conference League after seven unsuccessful attempts in recent years. The Ballists may be one of the smallest teams left in the qualifiers but they are not to be underestimated, especially after taking out the Romanian champions in the previous round.
How the bookies view it: Qarabag's experience will help them win
Bookmakers clearly trust Qarabag's experience in this matchup and priced them as low as 3/10. Meanwhile, you can take a risk and bet on Shkendija at 15/2, while the draw has been priced at 17/4.
Recent head to head: A very competitive first leg
Last week's first leg marked the start of this rivalry, so we have limited information. But we can confirm that the first match was very competitive and both teams played as equal. Qarabag won 1-0 after an early penalty but the general picture shows that perhaps Shkendija deserve a bit more when it comes to the odds in this rematch.
Players to watch: Andrade to shut down Shkendija's hopes
There is a lot of young talent in Qarabag's squad but with the new season yet to begin, we can't fully guarantee who's in top form. The Horsemen have mostly impressed defensively in the qualifications, while scoring just enough goals to go through. The safest bet remains Leandro Andrade, the team's top scorer in the Premier League last season. He opened his tally in the first round against Shelbourne but didn't score in the next two matches. We should see his name on the scoresheet again soon, possibly in this match.
Probable line-ups
Qarabag: Kochalski, Silva, Mustafazade, Medina, Cafarguliyev, Bicalho, Jankovic, Kady, Andrade, Addai, Zoubir
Shkendija: Gaye, Cake, Fetai, Trumci, Alhassan, Krasniqi, Ramadani, Latifi, Tamba, Ibraimi
Anything else catch the eye?
Last week's first leg showed that both teams are capable but need to be more effective in the final third. And since Shkendija have nothing to lose at this point, we expect more action and more risks. Their performance against FCSB proved their ambitions and hidden potential.
We envision goals from both ends and potentially an over, as we still plan to back Qarabag for the win. The Horsemen have displayed incredible stability in defence, so we don't imagine them conceding more than once. A 2-1 at full-time sounds fair, entirely due to Qarabag's experience at this level and their solid current form.
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