Mainz host RB Leipzig in one of the highlights of Round 3 in the Bundesliga, as both teams seek improvement after a shaky start to the new season.
Mainz had one of the busiest starts in the Bundesliga, particularly due to the Conference League qualifications. The positive is that Mainz qualified, but the negative is they weren't exactly convincing. With about three weeks left until the first round, the 05ers now need to focus on the domestic league, where they remain winless after two rounds.
RB Leipzig's 2025 has been far less exciting, as the team failed to finish in the Top 4 for only the second time since 2017. In fact, they are completely out of Europe this season, which gives them a chance to rebuild and become more competitive again. But the 6-0 defeat to Bayern in the first round was a huge blow, revealing all their vulnerabilities in defence. They bounced back with a 2-0 win over Heidenheim, but beating FCH is expected for the majority of the teams in the league this season.
How the bookies view it: Extremely close chances
Bookmakers found it impossible to name a clear favourite, as the teams are seen as completely equal right now. RB Leipzig have a minimal advantage in the odds with 31/20, while Mainz are available at 8/5. The draw has been priced at 13/5.
Recent head to head: The Red Bulls struggled a lot
While RB Leipzig have been far more successful than Mainz over the past decade, the 05ers have the edge in the H2H meetings. The Red Bulls won three of the last 10 H2Hs and just one of the last five, while Mainz won 5/10 and three of the last five. They exchanged a win each in the previous season.
Players to watch: Amiri is a star in the making
Every season, we see several new names rise up to the occasion and carry their teams, and Nadiem Amiri clearly intends to be Mainz's star this year. The 28-year-old midfielder scored eight goals across all competitions last season, and is already nearing that tally with just five appearances this campaign. Amiri has already scored four goals, winning Mainz the DFB Pokal match against Dynamo Dresden and bringing them their first point against Wolfsburg before the break. He also scored for Germany during the international break.
Probable line-ups
Mainz: Zentner, da Costa, Bell, Kohr, Mwene, Caci, Amiri, Sano, Lee, Nordin, Weiper
RB Leipzig: Gulasci, Baku, Orban, Lukeba, Raum, Diomande, Schlager, Baumgartner, Nusa, Cruz, Bakayoko
Anything else catch the eye?
Based on the early Bundesliga performances of the two teams, we can't expect a high-scoring game. Three of the last H2Hs also didn't cover the three-goal line. Mainz scored four goals to Rosenborg at home, but there is a clear gap in class between these teams, and we don't consider the result for our predictions. In the domestic league, they couldn't score to Koln and only found the net once against Wolfsburg.
Meanwhile, RB Leipzig have had serious issues on the road lately. If we include the last few fixtures from the previous season, the Red Bulls won just one of their last 10 away games in the Bundesliga. More importantly, they failed to score in seven out of 10. We plan to back Mainz to win here and we expect a conservative 1-0.
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