There was no reason to expect that Lecce would get relegated a few months ago, but their 13-game winless streak turned it into a real possibility. With two rounds left, the time to step up is now.
You can't expect to win matches without scoring goals. Lecce have scored a league-low 25 goals in 36 rounds to date, just an average of 0.69 goals per game. At the same time, their defence ranks as the third-weakest in the league, with 58 conceded goals or an average of 1.61 per match.
Lecce found themselves in the relegation zone after Venezia picked up the three points at home against Fiorentina. In order to escape this position, they need two stellar performances against mid-table Torino this week and Lazio in the final round.
Speaking of the Bull, Torino are in no-man's land and have nothing to play for at this point. This has been yet another uneventful season, and Torino have nothing to be proud of with their overall performance. They could have done way more with the 14 draws they accumulated, but perhaps next year.
How the bookies view it: Lecce to save themselves
While Torino have won considerably more points in recent months, bookmakers gave Lecce a massive betting advantage. You can pick the Salentians at 17/20, while Torino are available at 18/5. The draw is always a possibility and is currently priced at 12/5.
Recent head to head: A performance to fall asleep to
Lecce and Torino have a rich history dating back to the early 90s, but the last few encounters were quite uneventful, at least for neutral fans. When it comes to the results, Torino have been the dominant force in this rivalry, with four wins in five meetings since Lecce got promoted back to the elite in 2022. The Maroons also hold the all-time lead with 12 wins to six in 25 official meetings. Lastly, the reverse fixture this season ended in a ‘thrilling' 0-0 draw.
Players to watch: Krstovic with B2B goals?
Our best advice is to steer clear of any player bets in this matchup, as we have two of the lowest-scoring sides in the league, and their last meeting failed to produce a single goal. Only one player from both squads has surpassed 10 Serie A goals this season and his name is Lecce's Nikola Krstovic. The 25-year-old actually scored in the previous round, which should be a huge motivator ahead of the crucial clashes that remain. But this was also his first goal since mid-March, so we wouldn't risk too much money on him.
Probable line-ups
Lecce: Falcone, Gallo, Baschirotto, Gabriel, Guilbert, Coulibaly, Pierret, Morente, Helgason, Pierotti, Krstovic
Torino: Milinkovic-Savic, Dembele, Maripan, Masina, Biraghi, Casadei, Ricci, Elmas, Lazaro, Vlasic, Adams
Anything else catch the eye?
It is hard to expect much from this matchup, at least when it comes to goals. It will be a tense game and Lecce will be desperate to score. But given that neither of the last five H2Hs produced more than two goals, we expect an under. Moreover, Torino's last eight matches also failed to produce more than two goals.
There is even a chance we will see another 0-0 draw here, which would, however, put Lecce on their knees. The Salentians' last home win dates back to mid-December, which makes it hard to expect anything from them. But given the significance of this fixture and the fact Torino have nothing to play for, we will back the hosts to win by a minimal 1-0.
GambleAware