Japan host Brazil in their second of three international friendlies against CONMEBOL visitors, after an eventful clash with Paraguay last Friday. Will the Samurai Blue claim their inaugural win over the Selecao?
Japan needed an equaliser in added time to come from behind against Paraguay, with Ayase Ueda providing the finish for 2-2. It was fully deserved, as Japan were the better team on the pitch throughout the game, and also extended their unbeaten streak at home to 14 games in a row. The Samurai Blue decided to play three friendlies during this break and will face Brazil for the first time since 2022, but there is a real chance they will also get picked in the same group for the 2026 World Cup.
Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil scored its best win since he took charge, after crushing South Korea 5-0 in Seoul. We expected a strong performance but the Selecao exceeded all expectations, with standout performances from Estevao, Rodrygo, and Vinicius Jr. Although it was a friendly match, Brazil needed a confidence boost after failing to win their last four away games in the World Cup qualifiers.
How the bookies view it: The Selecao to conquer Japan again
Bookmakers agree unanimously that Brazil have better chances to come out winning on Tuesday, despite being a world away from home. You can back Japan at 5/1, the draw at 4/1, and Brazil at 9/20.
Recent head-to-head: Brazil are undefeated in 9
Japan and Brazil have been involved in a bunch of H2Hs since 1999, but the Samurai Blue remain winless after nine attempts. Brazil won seven of the nine meetings, including the last six in a row. Their last encounter was in an identical international friendly in Tokyo in 2022, when the Selecao went home with a 1-0 win.
Players to watch: Rodrygo needed those goals
Rodrygo was absolutely flawless against South Korea, scoring a brace and getting a 9.0 rating across the different stat platforms. The 24-year-old needed a confidence boost, as he has not had many good days with Real Madrid this season. Xabi Alonso primarily uses him as a sub and the winger hasn’t yet scored a goal for his club. Carlo Ancelotti clearly trusts him more and we expect Rodrygo to find the net again when he meets Japan.
Probable line-ups
Japan: Nishikawa, Tomiyasu, Yoshida, Ito, Nagatomo, Endo, Kamada, Doan, Kubo, Minamino, Ueda
Brazil: Bento, Danilo, Gabriel, Militao, Arana, Casemiro, Guimaraes, Paqueta, Rodrygo, Richarlison, Vinícius Jr
Anything else catch the eye?
Japan are definitely a level above all other national teams in their region, making it more likely that they score at least a goal past Brazil. However, if the Selecao play even 50% as good as they played against South Korea, we should see a similar outcome. A 2-1 is the minimum we expect here, but if Ancelotti decides to use a similarly strong line-up again, then Brazil should be able to score 3+.
The last trip to Japan was not as productive, but that was a different Brazil side and the squad right now is far more capable – all they need is more time and experience under Ancelotti and he could turn them into one of the best teams in the world again.
GambleAware