Italy will look to keep the pressure on group leaders Norway as they travel to Tallinn to take on Estonia on Saturday night.
Italy made a nightmare start to their World Cup qualifying campaign, as they were thrashed 3-0 by Norway in Norway on an evening where our man Mark landed a trio of winners.
The Azzurri bounced back from that defeat with routine wins at home to Moldova and Estonia, before edging a nine-goal thriller with Israel last time out in what was a truly topsy-turvy affair.
Gennaro Gattuso’s men trailed 1-0 and 2-1 to the Israelis, before turning the game around to lead 2-4, but the Italians required a 91st-minute winner from Newcastle midfielder Sandro Tonali after conceding twice in the space of two minutes.
That result leaves them six points behind leaders Norway – albeit with a game in hand – and six clear of their hosts, who have just one win to their name in Group I.
Jurgen Hens’ hosts claimed a 2-3 victory away at Moldova on MD2, but they have lost each of their other four qualifiers against Israel (twice), Italy and Norway by a combined score of 11-2.
How the bookies view it: Italy clear favourites
Unsurprisingly, Italy travel to Tallinn as clear favourites, with BoyleSports pricing an away success at just 1/12.
Despite playing at home, Estonia are a massive 28/1 with the same firm to claim a shock win, whilst the draw is an unfancied 9/1.
Head to head: Azzurri dominance
Italy hold a perfect record against Estonia, with The Azzurri winning all eight of their previous meetings between the two nations by an aggregate score of 25-2 – including a 5-0 victory in Bergamo in the reverse fixture last month.
Players to watch: Raspadori to make the net ripple again?
After winning the Scudetto with Napoli last season, Giacomo Raspadori made the switch to Atletico Madrid in the summer and recently got his first goal for Los Colchoneros during their 5-1 thrashing of Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League.
Raspadori has also found the back of the net in each of his previous three and four of his past five caps for The Azzurri – including in the reverse fixture with Estonia last month – and is an appealing 21/20 at Bet365 to extend his impressive goal-scoring run for Italy.
Predicted line-ups:
Estonia don’t appear to be missing anyone through injury or suspension.
Gennaro Gattuso will be without both Matteo Politano and Mattia Zaccagni who have pulled out the squad due to injury.
Estonia: Hein, Schjonning-Larsen, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Saliste, Palumets, Shein, Kait, Kristal, Sinyavskiy, Sappinen
Italy: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Calafiori, Bastoni, Dimarco, Cambiaso, Barella, Tonali, Raspadori, Kean, Retegui
Anything else catch the eye?
Italy can ill-afford to drop any more points in their pursuit of group leaders Norway, and I don’t envisage them slipping up in Tallinn on Saturday night.
As alluded to, Italy have won all eight of their meetings with Estonia, with all three away from home featuring fewer than four goals, and a repeat of that pays an appealing 21/20 at BoyleSports.
What’s more, Estonia have lost eight of their past nine competitive fixtures on home soil, with six of those defeats featuring fewer than four goals, including a 0-1 loss against group leaders Norway in their last home qualifier.
GambleAware