While Bayern Munich look unbeatable at the summit, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig have managed to remain close and head into this heavyweight Bundesliga clash with four wins in a row each.
This is a curious matchup for more than the usual reasons. Both Dortmund and RB Leipzig had almost identical season starts in the Bundesliga, as they met the same teams in the process. Both sides faced and beat Heidenheim, Wolfsburg, and Mainz, and with almost identical margins, which shows how equal in strength they are currently.
Borussia Dortmund crushed Mainz in the previous round and then Athletic Bilbao in Europe on Wednesday, thus extending their unbeaten streak to 14 games across all competitions and including last season’s finale. But their CL match also means RB will be better rested and prepared for war, all because the Red Bulls missed on European football last season.
How the bookies view it: Underestimating RB again
While both sides boast impressive win streaks, bookies had to stick with Borussia Dortmund and gave them just 7/10 to win on Saturday. If you believe in RB’s chances, you can pick them at 16/5, while the draw is available at 7/2.
Recent head-to-head: Dortmund’s kryptonite
Surprisingly, it’s not BVB who have the advantage in the recent H2Hs. RB Leipzig actually won a whole four of the last five meetings and in most cases did it with style. If we go even further back, the Red Bulls won seven of the last 10 matches between them. Overall, Dortmund’s fans have plenty of reasons to worry ahead of this match, although their favourites managed a 2-1 win in the same fixture last season.
Players to watch: Adeyemi can’t be stopped
While Serhou Guirassy remains the safest choice for most fixtures, we have to give Karim Adeyemi his flowers. The 23-year-old played eye-catching football at the start of the season and rightfully earned his place in the starting line-up. Now, he is a regular and he’s been sensational. Adeyemi was involved in six goals in the last five games, contributing to at least one in each match. And Betano’s 9/10 for him to score or assist seems like an obvious pick at this point in time.
Probable line-ups
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Anton, Bensebaini, Schlotterbeck, Couto, Sabitzer, Nmecha, Svensson, Adeyemi, Brandt, Guirassy
RB Leipzig: Gulacsi, Baku, Raum, Orban, Lukeba, Ouedraogo, Seiwald, Baumgartner, Romulo, Diomande, Bakayoko
Anything else catch the eye?
Borussia Dortmund have forgotten the feeling of losing at Signal Iduna Park, but RB Leipzig are one the few Bundesliga teams that have what it takes to change that. Niko Kovac has turned BVB into a goalscoring machine but his side played a tough match on Wednesday, while the Red Bulls had a whole week to rest and prepare.
There will be goals, that’s guaranteed, but we don’t recommend backing Borussia Dortmund at these low odds. If we were to pick the FT result at this very moment, we’d put our money on a draw. Leipzig’s tactics have been impeccable in recent weeks and they will find a way to steal a point away at Dortmund.
GambleAware