Borussia Dortmund will try to bounce back after losing the first Der Klassiker of the season last week and their next task is the newly-promoted Koln, who have overachieved beyond all expectations.
Niko Kovac’s Dortmund finally met their match and it was no other than Bayern Munich, who are on a whole different level this season. Regardless of the recent defeat, BVB’s season start has been solid, mostly thanks to their exceptional defensive work. And they already responded with a strong showing in the Champions League, crushing Copenhagen 4-2 away from home.
Dortmund’s fans can look forward to their team’s return to Signal Iduna Park, as the Black and Yellows won eight of their last nine home matches. More impressively, they scored 3+ goals in seven of those eight wins.
The visitors from nearby Cologne can also boast of their successes so far this season, especially for a team that until recently was playing in the lower league. Koln are currently just three points behind BVB thanks to their strong start.
They suffered two expected defeats against the strong teams of Stuttgart and RB Leipzig, but in the last two rounds they have started to progress again with a win over Hoffenheim and a draw with Augsburg.
How the bookies view it: Nearly impossible to beat Dortmund at home
Bookmakers certainly do not believe in Koln's chances of overcoming the difficulties of playing at Signal Iduna Park. Accordingly, Dortmund are favourites at 2/5, while Koln are available at 6/1. And alternatively, you can pick the draw at 17/4.
Recent head-to-head: Always a bad away day for Koln fans
Koln’s record against Dortmund is, to put it mildly, dismal. They have won just two of their last ten games against BVB, which is bad. But the fact that the visitors have only won twice in their last 25 games at Signal Iduna Park is a real cause for concern. This, and Dortmund’s current home form.
Players to watch: Guirassy to score or Schmied to get booked while stopping him
There are a couple of ‘obvious’ picks whenever Dortmund play at home. Serhou Guirassy will be the main threat but he hasn’t exactly been in top form this season, although we expect more from him soon. Julian Brandt is another popular pick, but he also hasn’t shown his true potential yet this season.
Since we expect a strong showing from the hosts overall, we can look at Augsburg’s defence line for picks. Joel Schmied, for example, has struggled against high press teams like Dortmund and got booked four times already. There’s a good chance he, Hubers, or Heintz will pick up yellows, so watch out for any accumulation of fouls.
Probable line-ups
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Schlotterbeck, Anton, Bensebaini, Svensson, Nmecha, Sabitzer, Ryerson, Adeyemi, Beier, Guirassy
Koln: Schwabe, Heintz, Hubers, Schmied, Johannesson, Martel, Lund, Sebulonsen, Thielmann, Kaminski, Bulter
Anything else catch the eye?
After analysing all possible scenarios, it is hard to expect anything but a dominant home win. We have concerns related to the number of goals Dortmund conceded in recent weeks, but this could only help our goal-related picks.
We expect at least three goals and we would even go as far as predicting that BVB will score 3+ alone. After all, they did it in seven of their last eight wins at home. We wouldn’t risk betting on Koln to score, as Signal Iduna Park has been a tough ground to play on, but it is always a possibility.
GambleAware