After securing a spot in the DFB Pokal 1/8 finals via penalties against Eintracht Frankfurt, Borussia Dortmund return to the Top 4 race with a trip to Augsburg – a team that beat them twice last season.
After barely securing seven points in eight Bundesliga rounds, Augsburg experienced another setback when they got eliminated from the DFB Pokal last week. Fuggerstadter couldn’t get past 2.Bundesliga’s Bochum and have only won one of their last eight competitive fixtures.
Scoring goals has been a massive problem, as Augsburg only scored once in their last three. And last week, they also lost 6-0 at home to RB Leipzig, so if BVB perform as usual, the hosts could be in for a third defeat on home turf in one week's time.
Borussia Dortmund had a much tougher draw and travelled to Frankfurt to meet local giants Eintracht, ultimately winning on penalties after 1-1 in regulation. This huge result made it three wins in a row and seven in the last 10 competitive fixtures. BVB’s only real misstep this season was the recent loss to Bayern Munich in Der Klassiker.
How the bookies view it: BVB to aid Augsburg's downfall
Bookies believe Dortmund will finally end the bad run of H2Hs and give them a massive betting advantage. You can currently pick Augsburg at 7/2, while Dortmund are available at 13/20. And if you fancy a draw, you can back it at 33/10.
Recent head-to-head: Augsburg got a double last season
Augsburg have only won three of the 15 home matches they’ve ever played against Dortmund, so the last few years have been their best in this rivalry.
Augsburg’s double over Dortmund last season was just as unexpected then as it is unlikely this season. BVB have improved immensely since last season, while Fuggerstadter’s form has been on a steady decline. And the overall H2H record is hardly in the hosts’ favour.
Players to watch: Guirassy needs to start acting now
While Borussia are up there in the Top 4, we can’t say that their scoring output has been great thus far. Niko Kovac played quite a strong squad against Frankfurt, so we expect to see some rotations.
Serhou Guirassy only came on in the 77th minute, which means he will be more rested than the majority of the players on the pitch, and he genuinely needs a good performance. His last league goal was in mid-September and Augsburg’s current state makes them a suitable target.
Probable line-ups
Augsburg: Dahmen, Banks, Matsima, Jakic, Giannoulis, Massengo, Rexhbecaj, Fellhauer, Reider, Claude-Maurice, Komur
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Anselmino, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Svensson, Nmecha, Sabitzer, Ryerson, Chukwuemeka, Adeyemi, Guirassy
Anything else catch the eye?
Statistically, Augsburg have the worst defence in the entire Bundesliga, with 20 goals conceded in eight fixtures. And they conceded 3+ in three out of their four home matches. Their double last season was sensational, but Dortmund have become a far better side since then, and we expect a completely different outcome.
After RB put six past Fuggerstadter’s defence, we anticipate at least another three goals from Dortmund. There are plenty of equally appealing options – Borussia to win, Over 2.5 goals, Over 1.5 Dortmund goals, or one of the special markets like BVB to score in both halves.
GambleAware