In the world of betting, luck and strategy often intertwine. Not many players know that a closer look at the numbers can be the key to unlocking success.
Understanding the mathematical dimensions of betting can significantly enhance your chances of winning.
If you’d like to know more about this process, then this article delves into the strategic side of betting, exploring three key ways in which mathematics becomes a powerful ally, guiding you towards more informed decisions and ultimately improving your overall betting prowess.
Get ready to play the numbers game and elevate your betting experience to a whole new level.
Apply a mathematical model to football
In 2015, a football fan called David Sumpter decided to test out an idea. He developed a mathematical model based on expert predictions, including odds analysis and statistics such as expected goals.
He found that draws in big games were a consistent source of profit as punters tended to avoid backing draws, driving up the odds. By using the model to pick out the likeliest ones, he made a return of over 200% during the 2015-16 Premier League season.
While this method requires significant effort, it does hit on a truth: that football draws are generally over-priced, so betting on them gives you extra value.
That said, Sumpter warns against pursuing professional gambling, suggesting stable income alternatives in mathematics and statistics. As a bit of fun, however, it could prove to be good strategy for winning football bets.
Make as few roulette bets as possible
Let’s face it, the casino is usually the place to lose money. But, armed with some mathematical calculations, there are ways to try to beat the bank, or at least lose your money as slowly as possible. Even better if you don’t have to dip into your own balance, such as when the casino gives you a no deposit welcome bonus.
The whole concept of the casino is based on the discovery that mathematics can give you an edge when it comes to playing games of chance, a discovery made by Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal in the 17th century. Their mathematical analysis uncovered the house edge: basically, a way for casinos to effectively rig games so that they lose every now and then but, in the long run, they always come out with more money.
Yet, there are some little tricks to know, including on the roulette table. Let’s say you have $20 and you want to double your money on the wheel. Do you put all your money down in one go on red or black? Or do you put $2 down for 10 spins?
The correct strategy is the first one. This gives you a 48% of doubling your money instead of just 25% with the second.
But how?
Well, the roulette wheel has the zero slot, which is green. If the ball lands here you lose your money, whether you bet on red or black. This means that there isn’t an evens chance of you winning your bet if you put your money on red. You have a slightly smaller than evens chance: 18/37.
Every time you play you pay the house £1/37 = £0.027 for each £1 you bet. The house has an edge of 2.7%. The more you play the more you pay.
If you play Strategy 2, because you are paying for each $2 bet you make, you are getting further and further away from your goal.
Strategy 1 means you may have a short game, but with Strategy 2 you’re paying for your fun.
Use matched odds sports betting
Matched odds sports betting is a popular and simple form of wagering where you place bets on both sides of a sporting event to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome.
The key concept is to take advantage of favorable odds offered by bookmakers. For instance, in a soccer match, one might bet on Team A to win with one bookmaker and simultaneously place a matching bet on Team A not to win (draw or lose) with another.
By carefully calculating the stakes, you can ensure that you will make a profit regardless of the final result. Matched betting is a strategic approach that minimizes risks and capitalizes on promotions, making it an appealing option for those seeking consistent returns in the unpredictable world of sports betting.
Whichever of the above techniques you choose to take on, be careful to always stick to a set budget that you can afford as well as keeping in mind other safe gambling principles. A bet should always be a way of having fun rather than chasing your losses. Bear this in mind while you play to keep yourself safe!
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