IT'S been a while since I've been able to post in full but currently quarantined so find myself with that rare gift of time on my hands coupled with the even rarer gift of South American football with a chance to play the card markets!
CHILE VS PERU (11.00pm)
Those that have followed South American domestic football down the years will know that we would most likely all be millionaires if bookies offered yellow and red card markets…in fact one or two Bolivian matches could have done it single-handedly!
Joking aside, there is a reason markets aren't available and card counts in certain domestic leagues can be phenomenal – granted, the International picture isn't quite as impressive but these ‘bigger-stage' games are played at a fierce pace that is far from friendly – as part of the World Cup qualifying stages, this one ought to be no different.
There are a number of betting angles to look at and three particular markets interest me – cards, penalties and goals – I'll start in reverse order.
Go for goals
This fixture has never been one that has shied away from a bit of goalmouth action and an impressively consistent 100% of the last 6 H2Hs over a six year spell have seen 3 or more goals with 90% of the last 10 going ‘overs' if you stretch that window to 9 years.
Perhaps another thing to note is that Peru haven't failed to hit the net in any of the last 5 meetings and ran out 3-0 and 0-3 winners in the most recent 2 games…something that stood out to me when looking at the bookies overall pricing!
Either team could pay the penalty
There have been plenty of penalties in the games I have already mentioned above and you just know that the chances of a spot kick being awarded will only be increased by the addition of VAR related incidents in and around the box – it is fair to say that our South American friends are not shy in breaking a few legs whilst at the same time taking a dive if farted upon from a close enough distance.
Bookies cards could be marked
I've stated my reasoning for this already at the top of the post and, although there hasn't been a red shown in the most recent 3 H2Hs, the 3 prior to that all saw the ref pulling out the big card during the first half. Again, you can only see VAR playing a part in increasing the chances of this happening.
So, there we have it – a bit of a potential forecast into a few diverse betting strands which may be best summed up in the following picks!
Recommended bets
- OVER 2.5 MATCH GOALS
(43/40, bet365) NAP ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- PENALTY AWARDED
(17/10, unibet) NB ⭐⭐
- RED CARD SHOWN
(11/4, unibet) LONGSHOT I ⭐
- EACH TEAM PLAYER SENT OFF
(20/1, skybet) LONGSHOT II ⭐
Born and bred in Bury but now exiled to Hull: long-suffering Shakers supporter and member of Mr. Fixit's site since 2013. Football mad with a depth and breadth of knowledge including specific focus on South American football, the Icelandic Leagues and English Lower League football.
Hi Hull, What do you think of the bookings line at over 55 points at evens ? Ty
Certainly wouldn’t put you off but if I had to choose, and for a better price, I’d side with goals!
Obviously fancy the red card but at a bigger price…well worth a go though Terry 👍
HT and it’s 2-0…one goal more to go…
Goodwork Hull
Cheers Jaka – plenty of cover available but didn’t take it! Penalty review late on but not given – would’ve potentially landed the Nap and Nb 👎