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AS FAR as I’m concerned today is all about the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. When you have a handicap hurdle with 24 runners and joint favourites trading at 10/1 you just know it’s going to be brilliant.
I’ve had a good look at that race and a few others on a decent day of racing where Warwick has a nice card along with some top class stuff at Newbury. I've ended up with four bets across three races. Good luck!
3.15 Warwick
I didn’t envisage myself tipping one in this race but it actually has what looks to be a very competitive field including Thomas Crapper, Value at Risk and KYLEMORE LOUGH. The latter is my idea of the winner because he is dropping significantly in class and hasn’t actually been running too poorly in some big races over the last year or so.
This is much more straightforward and although Thomas Crapper and Value at Risk are both decent, a fit and healthy Kylemore Lough should beat them both comfortably.
3.35 Newbury
What. A. Race.
Twenty-four runners, all with a decent chance of winning, running over a frantic two mile trip. This should be brilliant.
I’m not going to get any credit for originality here because the two horses that I have ended up with after a review of the form are two that I have tipped already this season.
The first is HIGH BRIDGE who has the misfortune of carrying top weight here today. That’s a negative, no doubt about it, but it also indicates that he is officially the best horse in the race and carrying top weight over two miles is less onerous than it would be over a marathon trip. So what are the positives for High Bridge? Well, he was third to Elgin and Limited Reserve in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Ascot back in November and both of those horses have gone on to win again since (Limited Reserve has won twice actually).
High Bridge has also won but has only gone up by 5lb in the handicap and he looks to me like he could have another good bit of improvement in him. This is a competitive race of course but he is a class act and I reckon he will be there or thereabouts at the death.
The second one that I like is our hero from two weeks ago. REMILUC finally remembered how to win rather than come second and he did it in nice style at Cheltenham, bagging us a 20/1 winner in the process. This is a step up again but he hasn’t been hammered by the handicapper and as long as they don’t go off too fast for him he will have a decent chance again.
Early position is crucial for the young jockey Harry Reed here: if he can get Remiluc in a prominent position and not let the race get away from him he should cope well enough and give a good account of himself. Frankly, I cannot let him go unbacked with some firms offering 66/1. That's a bonkers price for an in-form horse.
4.10 Newbury
Not a classic race on the face of it but I have one from my notebook running here that I think will be knocking on the door. THREE WAYS was decent enough over hurdles but always looked like he would be a staying chaser in the fullness of time. He has now won a chase and been second twice but I think he could have a good bit more to offer, starting with this race where the prices on offer seem too big to me.
Recommendations:
- 3.15 Warwick – Kylemore Lough – 4 point win at 11/4
- 3.35 Newbury – High Bridge – 1 point each way at 20/1 with Betfair (6 places) and Paddy Power (5 places)
- 3.35 Newbury – Remiluc – 1 point each way at 66/1 with Betfair (6 places)
- 4.10 Newbury – Three Ways – 2 points each way at 10/1 with William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power
