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WE had no luck yesterday with Cool Macavity finishing second and the each way selections all running below par but the next winner is never far away and today is choc full of great races. I had about 15 possible bets today and have narrowed it down to the best 5 as follows:
2.25pm Navan
One from the notebook runs over at Navan today. POLLY DOUGLAS won over course and distance on good to firm ground back in July and has the same conditions today. He is running off 4lb higher today but at one point he was running off an 11lb higher mark than this and raced well enough recently at the Curragh at a longer distance which probably didn’t suit him. I can see him going really well today.
2.35pm Epsom
LINCOLN ROCKS is a really likeable consistent sort of horse and is second highest on ratings in this race. Highest rated is Anna Nerium who is a 3 year old which gives her a weight allowance but also means she has quite a bit to prove with a consistent 5 year old like Lincoln Rocks. With ideal ground conditions I can’t see past Lincoln Rocks today at the current prices, particularly with my man Danny Tudhope in the saddle.
3.45pm Epsom
Quite simple stuff here with CASPIAN PRINCE who is last year’s winner from a similar draw and has won the race 3 times in total. His handicap mark is absolutely fine, ground is no problem , he has won already this year and you would be mad not to have an interest in this old boy at the current prices. Mad I say.
4.30pm Epsom
It’s a tricky Derby for a bet this year with Saxon Warrior appearing to be rock solid in the form book with a great win in the 2,000 Guineas. All indications are that he settles well and has a nice turn of foot and he should stay this longer trip so there are probably worse even money shots that you could back, especially with all his stablemates in the race to help control the pace etc.
I’m not going to recommend a bet at that price though and I am looking for something that will give him a run and give us a better return than even money if it can grab a place. Young Rascal is a lovely looking horse who overcame a bit of trouble to win at Chester and he will win again no doubt but his price is a bit short given all the other Coolmore runners and the competitiveness of the race.
Second to Young Rascal at Chester was the Mark Johnston-trained DEE EX BEE who finished the race off well and lost out only to the nice turn of pace from Young Rascal. Dee Ex Bee went straight into the notebook because he is a massive rangy horse who doesn’t look like he would suit the twists and turns of a place like Chester.
The same is probably true of a track like Epsom but it’s not as bad as Chester in that sense and although he will probably be even better on a flat straighter track like Ascot or Doncaster I think the stamina test today will suit him and he could outgallop quite a few of these at big odds.
6.10pm Lingfield
There has been no support in the market for ISLE OF MAN thus far but I am willing to take a chance given the high prices available this morning.
He has been in my notebook as one to watch when going handicapping and although the market suggests it won’t be today that he improves he does have a pretty low handicap mark to start off in, is quite well bred and is stepping up to a longer trip which should suit.
The favourite looks strong but the price for Isle of Man is now one where getting a place would be a nice return so I’m getting on now in the hope that some money comes in for him near the off and he outruns his current odds.
Recommended Bets:
- 2.25 – Polly Douglas – 2pt e/w at 17/2 with Bet365
- 2.35 – Lincoln Rocks – 4pt win at 7/2 with Betfred, Betway, Bet365
- 3.45 – Caspian Prince – 2pt e/w at 9/1 with William Hill, Betfred, BetVictor, Betway (all paying 5 places)
- 4,30 – Dee Ex Bee – 1pt e/w at 28/1 with Ladbrokes, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred
- 6.10 – Isle of Man 1pt e/w at 20/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral
