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ON paper, you'd have to say this is one of the weakest Derby renewals in recent years, which is probably due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
A lot of horses come into this race, having only raced three times, or even less. The best form on offer is Kameko, who won the 2000 Guineas in good fashion.
The 2000 Guineas this year looked like a good renewal, with the likes of Pinatubo and Wichita, to name a few. He probably deserves to be the favourite based on that form alone, but I couldn't possibly side with him as his breeding suggests this trip isn't going to be ideal.
He's by Kittens Joy, whose progeny often have speed, and they don't get the 12f trip. Roaring Lion is a prime example of this, he was good in the Guineas and ran well to finish 3rd in the Derby, but his optimal trip was 10f, which could be similar to Kameko. If Kameko were to win the Derby, it would be no great surprise, but with the Ballydoyle pacemakers in this race, he would have to be a thorough stayer over 12f, which I don't think he is.
English King was mightily impressive at Lingfield, in the Derby trial. The form didn't look much when he beat Berkshire Rocco, but that form line took a huge boost when Santiago won the Irish Derby, after beating Berkshire Rocco at Royal Ascot the week before.
English King has been the most talked horse about the Derby, especially after Tom Marquand was jocked off for Frankie Dettori. He's been drawn in stall 1, and the last time a horse won the Derby from stall 1 was Oath, back in 1999, so at 4/1 – 7/2 I'd take my bet elsewhere.
The one I like the look of is RUSSIAN EMPEROR, who I tipped up at Royal Ascot.
He was ultra-impressive when winning the Hampton Court, as Ryan Moore had him positioned very far back, but when his turbo kicked in, he flew home. With the extra 2f, I think that will definitely suit. He's a horse who takes a while to get into top gear, so the extra distance will only help his chances.
He's drawn in stall 6, and Seamie Heffernan takes the ride. Seamie has ridden him in 3 of his 4 races and is a top-class rider in his own rights. For a Derby, you need a horse who will travel throughout the race, and a horse who has the stamina, and I think this lad has both.
I want to give an honourable mention to Khalifa Sat, who is the ride of Tom Marquand. I actually think this lad is very overpriced, and I think he will definitely outrun his odds, and could possibly be a Leger horse for this season. It would be some story if Tom won on this horse after getting jocked off English King.
