It was an unfortunate race for Dominic's Fault who was brought down by a faller when he was starting to move into contention before swinging for home. The winner has progressed nicely since moving into handicaps, but it might have been a different story if Cairnzy's selection wasn't taken down by the fallen horse.
Rizzel's tips
Moon D'Orange 6/1 EW (4pl) – Cheltenham 1.50
I know the latest storm has caught some power issues around Cairnzy's area, so I doubt he'll be sticking up any selections today, but if he was I think he would've had a go on Moon D'Orange. Sean Bowen is one of Cairnzy's favourite jockeys, and I think he is the correct jockey booking for John McConnell's 7-year-old.
This race has plenty of depth with the horses towards the top of the weights having some strong pieces of form in the last twelve months, but they find themselves to be on tough enough handicap marks and their wins are the top level can be picked apart and questioned as to how strong they actually were. I think a horse towards the bottom of the weights in this race is the way to go, and I think the big price of Torn And Frayed is a good each-way shout for this race, with Some Scope also having a good chance if the drop in trip is fine for him. Moon D'Orange only has to carry 10st 5lbs, and he might not be miles ahead of the handicapper, but carrying such a low weight around Cheltenham on soft ground is a big plus in my eyes. He is a horse that we've not seen the best of yet, and I thought his run behind Inthewaterside at Newbury was an encouraging effort. The winner is a nice horse and will win some nice races going forward, so to finish as runner-up was a nice performance. The third-placed horse looks like a horse who is ahead of the handicapper for the Venetia Williams stable, though he didn't win last time out over 3m 4f, he will have his day in the sun soon.
Moon D'Orange can often race behind the bridle and be a tad lazy, hence why he has the cheekpieces, which are there to try and keep him focussed. Freddie Gordon had to niggle away at him at Newbury, a lot earlier than he should have to, but that's because the horse has a think. Sean Bowen won't allow that to happen, and with him being one of the strongest jockeys in the weighing room, if he's in with a chance when jumping the last couple, he'll boot him home.
Strong Leader 3/1 – Cheltenham 3.35
The staying hurdling division has been in the mud for many years now, since the likes of Thistlecrack we've had no horse cement their abilities as the best stayer in the land, so it would not be a total shock if Strong Leader was to bounce back to form now he has had a wind-op.
This race looks very weak on paper, as it sums up the staying division. We have some Grade 1 winners in Crambo and Strong Leader, but I really do not rate Crambo. He has won two Grade 1s at Ascot, but seems to flop everywhere he goes, so you have to take him on based on that. Strong Leader doesn't have the best record at Cheltenham, but he does handle the track and I think his Grade 1 victory at Aintree is much better than Crambo's recent win where Strong Leader clearly had problems, so he didn't exactly prove himself by beating horses who have not franked the form since.
Strong Leader is a strong stayer, so he would want a strong gallop which might not be the case, but I think he is the best horse in the race and does have pace to match his staying power as he was a horse who was aimed at the Supreme a few years ago. It all boils down to if he has gotten over that blip of Ascot, and if he has, he should win this and the reason why he's a very backable price is because of what happened last time out.
Erne River 16/1 EW (5pl) – Doncaster 3.15
I put up Erne River for a similar race at this track in December, there was a little bit of money for him at bigger prices and he was in the middle of running a solid race until he made a mistake and unseated Tom Broughton. His jumping can be an issue, but I can't help myself but to get involved again as he is on a very good handicap mark and Doncaster is a track which has been very good for him in the past, so he is more than capable of putting it all together and winning a race like this.
Tom Broughton keeps the ride and takes off 5lbs, which puts him on a mark of 126, which is very low when you realise he won over 3m at this track in December 2023 off a mark of 134. He was 5th/18 in this race last year off a mark of 137, so now he is 11lbs lower than 12 months ago, surely he has a fighting chance, as long as his jumping holds up.
I'm not saying he is going to win this race, but he is big odds and with five places on offer, I think he is incredible value.
There could be one more. I'm monitoring the market to see whether he drifts out to a backable price.
