We have some decent racing outside of the Derby at Epsom, so that is where my focus will be for Saturday's Lucky 15!
Today's Lucky 15 bet is advised as an each-way Lucky 15.
Sparks Fly 8/1 EW (4pl) – Epsom 1.00
I'll take a stab at David Loughnane's Sparks Fly in the opener of Derby Day.
This is a really tough Group 3 over the extended mile for Fillies & Mares, so I think we will get some decent odds on the first selection.
Sparks Fly started to improve at a rapid rate towards the back end of last year, winning three races in a row. She showed her class by winning three Listed races in October and November, including two races in France. She has always been a good performer, but last autumn she was consistent and showed that she is deadly when getting her optimal conditions (soft/heavy ground). With the weather forecast suggesting a lot of rain is going to fall, she has to be a big player. They will likely front-run with her, which has been fantastic for her in the past.
Ice Max 7/1 EW (3pl) – Epsom 1.35
Similar comments can be applied to Ice Max from the horse above in that this race is competitive, and we'll get good odds.
I think punters will either be backing Docklands or Persica. I can totally understand why they would be the most popular in the race, as they have the best recent form on offer. But, as we know, racing does throw up some wacky results and that is why I've chosen Ice Max.
Once again, I am banking that the ground will deteriorate badly as Ice Max is a very good horse on his day when running on bad ground. He is very in and out of form, which is a concern, but that is why he is the odds he is. He won a Group 2 on bad ground last year at Goodwood and beat a solid horse (Poker Face) at the same time. Having form around Goodwood is nice to have when running around Epsom. Both of the tracks have similarities, and I think he can outrun his odds.
Stormy Impact 12/1 EW (5pl) – Epsom 2.10
The three-year-old Dash is a bit of a minefield. It is full of horses who aren't proven on the likely soft ground, so it could get a bit messy.
I think taking a chance on Stormy Impact could be the direction to go. She is a filly who has already proven to be running at a decent level, hence the rating of 90. She was a runner-up in a Class 2 race at Haydock last year on good to soft ground over 6f, finishing behind a classy winner. The winner of that race is now rated 104 and was recently placed in a Group 3, so the form reads well.
Knowing my fancy stays slightly further than the 5f race today is a positive. They will be running at a frantic speed down the Epsom hill, but I think having a slightly stronger stayer in the lineup could pay dividends.
Warren Fentiman takes off a very handy 5lbs.
Blind Beggar 25/1 EW (5pl) – Epsom 2.45
There is a strong possibility that Blind Beggar will be outclassed in the big sprint at Epsom on Saturday, but I think he is worth a shot.
I watched his recent race at Carlisle because I had a main thread tip running in the race and I thought he shaped very well. The race was well suited to the closers that day, which made Blind Beggar's performance even better. He was the horse who led them throughout and was the only horse who stayed with the closers at the end of the race, from the ones who were towards the front.
He is out of the handicap but has a 5lb claimer to offset the weight he would've been losing. He has form on soft ground, and he has a better chance than his odds would suggest.
GambleAware