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It was another shocker yesterday for the tips with only Sands of Mali doing us justice with a good second place. It's the final day of the meeting today so hopefully I can make amends with a couple of winners.
2.30 – Chesham Stakes
A tricky one for the opener to be honest with almost all of these two year olds having shown good early form. We're working off just one or two runs with most of them though so it's hard to tell who will kick on the most. I'm taking a chance on NATE THE GREAT at a decent price for Archie Watson who has been a revelation as a trainer for the lat couple of seasons and perhaps it is time he stepped up to the next level with a Royal Ascot winner. Nate the Great's debut was impressive and he has been strong in the market overnight which is also encouraging.
3.05 – Harwicke Stakes
Crystal Ocean should win this easily enough but with the number of favourites turned over this week you can't be too sure. Too short at 4/7 anyway so it's no bet for me.
3.40 – Windsor Castle Stakes
Another tricky one with a battalion of unexposed 2 year olds but QUEEN OF BERMUDA has really looked the part to me in her 3 runs so far and I have lots of faith in William Haggas who should be able to continue her progress. She looks the each way bet for me with some firms paying 4 or 5 places.
I'm also going to take the liberty of having a second bet in this race because SOLDIERS CALL is too big a price at 16-1. He has looked a proper sprinter in his two races so far and with Archie Watson and Danny Tudhope he is in very safe hands and I expect some more progress today.
4.20 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes
I'm struggling with a decision on this race if I'm being honest. I like Harry Angel but his form at Ascot is shocking. I could ignore that if the price was a bit bigger but he is a reasonably short favourite. When I look elsewhere I don't see anything that I can see having a strong each way chance so I'm going to leave the race alone. No bet for me.
5.00 – Wokingham Stakes
We have 28 runners here so it's not going to be easy and quite remarkably have a 3/1 favourite (Dreamfield). I'm obviously not interested in that, not least because he has very little experience of big field races like this. His presence opens the prices up nicely though and there are two that I think are great value. Regular followers will remember that OUT DO did the business for us last year in this very race at an SP of 25/1. He was 1lb lower in the handicap and was a similar price to today and I can't help but think that he has been laid out for a repeat bid this year. In his previous race in May at Thirsk he finished last but he was only beaten a few lengths and wasn't given a tough race at all. I expect a big run today.
I have a second selection in this race and that is the in-form MR LUPTON. He will sit out near the back as the early leaders charge off and be produced right at the perfect moment and I'm hoping he has the class to get his head in front on the line. This race should be perfect for him and he comes here in good form having won last time out over 5 furlongs when 6 furlongs probably suits him better.
5.35 – Queen Alexandra Stakes
Thomas Hobson will go off a fairly short favourite for this one and he is a class act, no doubt about it, but we aren't getting any value in his price because of the Mullins and Moore factor. Regular followers will know that I like PALLASATOR who has been switched to hurdles for last season's National Hunt season. That was a surprise to me because he is a classy horse on the flat but he has won a couple of hurdles races to justify that switch and he is back on the flat today. He should stay this long trip and is in fine fettle at the moment so his odds look fair for an each way bet, particularly in a race where we are getting extra places and I think 8 or 9 of them can be ruled out completely.
Recommended Bets:
- 2.30 – Nate the Great – 1 point e/w – 14-1 with William Hill, Bet365, Paddy Power
- 3.05 – No bet
- 3.40 – Queen of Bermuda – 2pt e/w – 13-2 with Bet365 (4 places, 1/4 odds)
- 3.40 – Soldiers Call – 1pt e/w – 16/1 with Paddy Power (5 places, 1/5 odds)
- 4.20 – No bet
- 5.00 – Out Do – 1pt e/w – 33/1 with Bet Victor (6 places), Bet365 (5 places), William Hill (5 places)
- 5.00 – Mr Lupton – 2pt e/w – 16/1 with Betfair (5 places)
- 5.35 – Pallasator – 2pt e/w – 10-1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
