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I drew a blank yesterday on another tough day but I’ll keep plugging away. The slumps come and go just like the winning streaks and the important thing to do is not to panic and keep doing the same things that have put me in a tidy profit for the year. Do not chase losses with daft bets and you will be fine.
It was probably my bragging on Tuesday about having a profitable year that has angered the racing Gods this week actually.
Today’s racing looks brilliant again so there is plenty to get my teeth into.
2.30 – Albany Stakes
Personally I think this one is a battle between the the top two in the market, both Aidan O’Brien horses JUST WONDERFUL and Fairyland. Although the latter win a listed race last time out O’Brien has put Ryan Moore on Just Wonderful which probably signifies that they think she is the better filly. Her debut win was impressive and I think she will improve past her stablemate and take this.
3.05 – King Edward VII Stakes
I can’t get my head round this race so it’s no bet for me.
3.40 – Commonwealth Cup
A cracking sprint race and a relatively new addition to the Royal meeting. My value bet of the day runs here in the shale of SANDS OF MALI. I find it hard to believe that this horse is available at 9/1 this morning and that some firms are paying extra places. He has won two Group 2 races and a Group 3, he is the top rated horse in the race but more importantly he is the sort of horse I love – a gutsy gritty front runner with bags of determination who fights back when horses come and challenge him. If he gets a good break and grabs the lead it will take a really good horse to go past him. Equilateral is unexposed and could be top top class but we don’t know yet so 4/1 is no use and Sioux Nation is respected but the value definitely lies with Sands of Mali.
4.20 – Coronation Stakes
TEPPAL won the French 1,000 Guineas and is unbeaten so whilst this is a competitive race with Billesden Brook (English Guineas), Alpha Centauri (Irish Guineas) and Clemmie (top class 2 year old) I think Teppal is rock solid each way value, particular with extra places on offer.
5.00 – Sandringham Stakes
I have a sneaky outsider that I like in this one although it’s obviously a ridiculously competitive handicap for fillies. ERTIYAD was a disappointing 8th of 11 on her only start this season but if you watch the race back she doesn’t look particularly fit, finding very little in the last couple of furlongs. My theory is that her 6th place and 4th place finishes in Group 3 races last year was good form when she wasn’t far behind horses who are now rated a good bit higher. I reckon she has been laid out for this by William Haggas and could be nicely handicapped. It’s also a bonus having Danny Tudhope in the saddle because if she is good enough he will get her up there.
5.35 – Duke of Edinburgh Stakes
Two bets for me in the lucky last with FIRE FIGHTING and COUNT CALABASH.
Fire Fighting won last time out and is still a good 15lb below his best handicap mark from a couple of years ago. Obviously recapturing that form would make him more than likely an easy winner but even if he has half of that weight in hand it makes him a really good prospect. He thrives in these conditions and has a capable jockey in the saddle. Mark Johnston is also in form with a good winner yesterday so I have to have an interest at 33/1.
Eve Johnston-Houghton and Charlie Bishop had a brilliant win with Accidental Agent and they have another great chance here with a horse who went into my notebook a while ago as a potential group horse. A win today would put him up to that level. A course and distance win last time out shows he is in great form and could go close.
Recommended Bets:
- 2.30 – Just Wonderful – 4 point win (9-4, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Bet365)
- 3.05 – No bet
- 3.40 – Sands of Mali – 3pt e/w (9/1, Betfair, PaddyPower – both paying 4 places)
- 4.20 – Teppal – 2pt e/w (8/1, Ladbrokes – paying 4 places)
- 5.00 – Ertiyad – 1pt e/w (33/1, Ladbrokes, Betfair – both paying 5 places)
- 5.35 – Fire Fighting – 1pt e/w (33/1, Coral)
- 5.35 – Count Calabash – 2pt e/w (8/1, Betway, Betbright – both paying 5 places)
