The same comments can be applied to yesterday's treble compared to the Lucky 15; they were both very poor.
Solana Rose was simply outclassed, as was Pinhole in her race. Ancient Rome ran with credit, but had a lot to do and had a barging match late on to try and get the gaps.
Caspi Star 11/1 EW (3pl) – Ascot 3.40 (Ribblesdale Stakes Group 2)
Like every race at Royal Ascot, the Ribblesdale is a tough race to pick the winner. The main problem is that, based on what we've seen, every single horse will have to improve a fair chunk if they were to win a usual running of this race.
Caspi Star looked to be the play in this for me. I thought she ran a very solid race in the Oaks Trial at Chester when finishing third to the eventual Epsom Oaks winner. She didn't get the best of runs through at Chester, which is never a surprise. She was towards the rear, had to go four horses wide to get a clear run, and then ran on in the final stages to grab third place. By the time she had to make her move and lose ground, the winner was already home and hosed. Despite the run at Chester being her fifth run in her career, she still looked a big baby.
Given how she dawdled when in the open to get her run, there has to be a fair amount of improvement left in her. She clearly has an engine; she has shown this numerous times in her short career to date. On seasonal reappearance, she was beaten by Lady Vivian (runs in this race), and she was beaten due to a lack of fitness, as well as greenness. She drifted to the left when SDS went for the whip, resulting in many lengths lost.
We've seen the Chester form work out from the Derby Trial, and given the winner in the Oaks trial was only 3L ahead and had a better run through, it's solid form.
I do think some of the horses towards the bottom of the market can outrun their odds, with Understudy and Hollys Graces deserving a mention.
| Royal Ascot free bets | Offer | Free bet link |
|---|---|---|
| Betvictor | £50 in free bets | Get the offer |
| Star Sports Bet | £20 in free bets | Get the offer |
| Jeffbet | £30 in free bets | Get the offer |
Raafedd 13/2 EW (4pl) – Ascot 5.00 (Britannia Stakes Heritage Handicap)
I'm not a huge fan of tipping up short-priced fancies for handicaps of this size, but it was hard not to be impressed by Raafedd last time out.
He flipped his form around last time out when he was a very easy winner of a novice race at Newbury over 7f. He recorded an RPR of 93, winning by 2L, and the form has started to work out nicely. The runner-up and third have won since, and the fourth was behind the third.
Horses who are lightly raced generally do well in this race, and given my selection has only run three times and is making his handicap debut today, he fits the bill. He will be running over an extra furlong today, but his pedigree and the way he ran at Newbury leave me with no doubts that he'll see the trip out.
Yesterday, we saw a very similar horse win one of the handicaps. My Cloud was a progressive horse and looked to be ahead of the handicapper, and he became the shortest-priced winner of the race. That goes to show, backing favourites isn't necessarily a bad thing; it's about backing the right ones.
William Haggas won this race in 2012 with a handicap debutante, and he has gone close on a few occasions since.
English Oak 6/1 EW (6pl) – Ascot 6.10 (Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap)
I tipped up English Oak in a previous Lucky 15 a few weeks ago at Newbury. He wasn't fancied in the market that day, but it is interesting to see that he is back for the race he won twelve months ago.
He finds himself out of form compared to last year's build-up to a runaway success in this, but he has been getting better with each run. His handicap mark has dropped from 108 to 100 after his first three runs this year, and it wouldn't be a shock if this has been the plan. We all know how daft the handicapping system is, and if you can make a mockery of it and win races like this by swindling it, then fair play.
English Oak won this race off a mark of 99 last year and won it with ease. The 3L success made him look like a potential Group horse, but it didn't quite go to plan for him after that. James Doyle has opted to ride him over his stablemate, and with Ed Walker being in tremendous form this year, he is a big player.
Odds: 629/1
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