It has been a bloodbath for me so far, but there is still plenty of racing to get the winners rolling.
Spicy Marg ran with credit, but might have been on the wrong side of the track. I think she is a very talented filly and Michael Bell really rates her, so I won't be giving up on her.
Shackleton is a boat, and I knew that coming into the race. He got to the front under Ryan Moore, and when I saw those tactics, I was very happy. He got challenged and was very one-paced, ran well, but he's not close to the level that Ballydoyle will be happy with.
Cinderella's Dream was disappointing. I was supremely confident in her winning yesterday. She didn't have the same turn of foot she showed at Newmarket, and maybe she doesn't like Ascot as much as HQ. The winner was a big surprise, and I wouldn't have given her any chance of winning.
Candelari 10/3 (2pt) – Ascot 4.20 (Gold Cup Group 1)
For the main thread, I am sticking to one selection, and that is in the big race on Day three, the Gold Cup.
I am a jumps man at heart, so sitting and watching the marathon flat races doesn't bother me. This year is a very interesting renewal as we don't have the staying stars of recent years, but it means that another horse can step up and take the throne. I am hoping that horse is the French raider, Candelari.
I think the safe option in the race is definitely Trawlerman. He was second in this race last year, you know he stays the trip, and he had a great prep run at Sandown for a crack at winning it this year. The risky bet is Illinois, not only is that because he is a very short price, but we don't know how good he is over the trip. Some of the same comments can be applied to my selection, but I was so impressed by the way he won his recent Group 1 over two miles.
In France, they usually get soft ground, and the races are run at a sedate gallop. Last time out, he had a decent gallop to aim at, and it was on much quicker ground than what it was called on the day. The time for the race looks solid, and the best part of his race was in the final half furlong. Prior to that, he was workmanlike and battled against the horses close to him, but in the final half furlong, he powered clear like he had another gear or two to go.
The step up to 2m 4f should be ideal for him based on what we saw at Longchamp 25 days ago. I think Mickael Barzalona will have him towards the rear in typical Barzalona fashion, then he'll get him rolling in the straight. I can see him powering past these when hitting top gear, and the price is still very good.
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